SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,693
- Like
- 62,971
I’m going to use the same system, (with one exception), I described in my post on Winning Plays for 2011 to breakdown games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or loss just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that result in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
Last year, by this measure, we averaged winning 87 plays a game and losing 89, so we were physically completive with our opponents. Our best game was, surprisingly not the West Virginia game, (which as only 90-84) but rather the Rhode Island game, (92-64). We got big plays vs. West Virginia that we didn’t get vs. Rhode Island. Equally surprisingly, our worst game was not the USC game, (75-90) but the Tulane game, (79-99), an absurdly bad performance. But it’s encouraging that we were able to line up against the Trojans 75 times and get what we wanted out of the play or prevent them from getting what they wanted. There wasn’t anybody last year we couldn’t compete with on a play-to-play basis. What hurt us was our lack of big-play ability and too many mistakes.
Now let’s look at this year. I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play), the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points. I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse had the ball
Kickoffs: 25, 6, 25, 25, 25, 33, 25, 25 (SU won 7, NW won 1)
Punts -24(TD), 1(SU28), 26(NW20) (SU 0 NW 3)
Field Goals: good, good, no good (SU 2 NW 1)
Extra Points: good, good, good, no good (2pts), good (2 pts) (SU 4 NW 1)
Total for Kicking Game: SU 13 NW 6
1st down runs: 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 11, 14(14to go), 4, 3, -1, 4, 4, -3, 2, 3, 3, 4 (SU 6 NW 11)
1st down passes: 17, 14, 11, I, 9(15), 9, 3, I, 5, 5, I, 11, 11, 15, 50, 0, 38(15), 10, 9(15), 0, -6, I, 7, I (SU 15 NW 9)
2nd down runs: 4(7), 2(1), 1(8), 6(8), -3, -2, 3(7), 21(6), 5 (SU 5 NW 4)
2nd down passes: 2, I, I, 8(11), 12(9), I, 6, 8(7), I 9(5), 12(6), -3, 17(13), -4, -3, I, 7(10), I, 8(16), I, I (SU 9 NW 12)
3rd down runs: 2(3), 6(2), 21(4), 11(7) (SU 3 NW 1)
3rd down passes: 34(8), I, 5(8), 4(3), I, I, I, 15(14), 11(8), 7(7), 4(3), 7(7), 41(8), 20(1), I, I (SU 9 NW 7)
4th down runs none
4th down passes: 6(3) (SU 1 NW 0)
Total for SU scrimmage plays: 48-44
Penalties (that weren’t tacked on to plays) SU had 9, NW had 7, (SU 7 NW 9 in plays “won”)
Turnovers: SU had 3, NW 1, (scored SU 1 NW 3)
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 8, NW 12
When Northwestern had the ball
Kickoffs: 18, 26, 25, 25, 30, 23, 20 (SU 2, NW 5)
Punts -5(NW31), 32(23), 31(17), 59(8), 27(14), 40(28) (SU 3 NW 3)
Field Goals: none
Extra Points: good six times, (SU 0 NW 6)
Total for Kicking Game: SU 5, NW 14
1st down runs: 0, -4, 19, 0, 0, 2, 7, 14, 5, 9, 4, 7, 1(1), 6, 6, -1, 4, 18 (SU 6 NW 12)
1st down passes 6, I, I, I, 21, 1, 8, 13, 7, -11, 3, I, 4, 9(9) (SU 7 NW 7)
2nd down runs: -1, 5, 5, 6(3), 7, 3(5), 32(6), 3(3), 2(5), 1(3), -4, 3(6) (SU 4 NW 8)
2nd down passes: 21, 14(4), -7, I 7(5), 7(9), I, 5(2), 19(16), 25(7), 12(10), -9 (SU 4 NW 8)
3rd down runs: 7(5), 2(8), 1(3), 6(2), 7(2), 4(16), 8(15) (SU 4 NW 3)
3rd down passes: I, -5, 18(5), I, 9(4), I, I (SU 5 NW 2)
4th down runs -1 (SU 1 NW 0)
4th down passes: none
Total for NW scrimmage plays: SU 31 NW 40
Total for the game: SU 105 NW 116.
Well, that was a surprise! SU gained 596 yards to 337 for Northwestern and had 33 first downs to 21. You would think they won the plays “won” by a significant margin but in fact they lost 11 more plays than they won. How did this happen? SU did well poorly on first down runs, (6-11) and well on first down passes (15-9). Second down was pretty much of a wash, (14-16 overall). We did really well on third down and fourth down , (14-8, including 7 consecutive successful third down passes), which enabled us to keep the ball and run a lot more plays. But we weren’t necessarily winning all those plays, (only 48-44 on offense). The terrific third down rate was key to all the yards we gained and the points we scored. When Northwestern had the ball, they did really well on the first two downs, (21-34) but they did really badly on third and fourth down (5-10), so they didn’t keep the ball and have more plays.
There were plenty of big plays: Venric Mark, channeling Red Grange, had punt returns of 82 and 52 yards and a 32 yard run. Ryan Nassib had passes of 34, 50, 38 and 41 yards, (more long plays than I had remembered after the game). Kain Colter had two passes of 21yards. His back-up, Trevor Siemian had a 25 yarder. Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley both had 21 yard runs. And, of course, Chi Chi Ariguzo had a 33 yard fumble return and a 49 yard interception return. He and Mark were the difference in the game. Without them, we would have won by several touchdowns thanks to those third down conversions.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or loss just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that result in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
Last year, by this measure, we averaged winning 87 plays a game and losing 89, so we were physically completive with our opponents. Our best game was, surprisingly not the West Virginia game, (which as only 90-84) but rather the Rhode Island game, (92-64). We got big plays vs. West Virginia that we didn’t get vs. Rhode Island. Equally surprisingly, our worst game was not the USC game, (75-90) but the Tulane game, (79-99), an absurdly bad performance. But it’s encouraging that we were able to line up against the Trojans 75 times and get what we wanted out of the play or prevent them from getting what they wanted. There wasn’t anybody last year we couldn’t compete with on a play-to-play basis. What hurt us was our lack of big-play ability and too many mistakes.
Now let’s look at this year. I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play), the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points. I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse had the ball
Kickoffs: 25, 6, 25, 25, 25, 33, 25, 25 (SU won 7, NW won 1)
Punts -24(TD), 1(SU28), 26(NW20) (SU 0 NW 3)
Field Goals: good, good, no good (SU 2 NW 1)
Extra Points: good, good, good, no good (2pts), good (2 pts) (SU 4 NW 1)
Total for Kicking Game: SU 13 NW 6
1st down runs: 3, 0, 2, 2, 2, 11, 14(14to go), 4, 3, -1, 4, 4, -3, 2, 3, 3, 4 (SU 6 NW 11)
1st down passes: 17, 14, 11, I, 9(15), 9, 3, I, 5, 5, I, 11, 11, 15, 50, 0, 38(15), 10, 9(15), 0, -6, I, 7, I (SU 15 NW 9)
2nd down runs: 4(7), 2(1), 1(8), 6(8), -3, -2, 3(7), 21(6), 5 (SU 5 NW 4)
2nd down passes: 2, I, I, 8(11), 12(9), I, 6, 8(7), I 9(5), 12(6), -3, 17(13), -4, -3, I, 7(10), I, 8(16), I, I (SU 9 NW 12)
3rd down runs: 2(3), 6(2), 21(4), 11(7) (SU 3 NW 1)
3rd down passes: 34(8), I, 5(8), 4(3), I, I, I, 15(14), 11(8), 7(7), 4(3), 7(7), 41(8), 20(1), I, I (SU 9 NW 7)
4th down runs none
4th down passes: 6(3) (SU 1 NW 0)
Total for SU scrimmage plays: 48-44
Penalties (that weren’t tacked on to plays) SU had 9, NW had 7, (SU 7 NW 9 in plays “won”)
Turnovers: SU had 3, NW 1, (scored SU 1 NW 3)
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 8, NW 12
When Northwestern had the ball
Kickoffs: 18, 26, 25, 25, 30, 23, 20 (SU 2, NW 5)
Punts -5(NW31), 32(23), 31(17), 59(8), 27(14), 40(28) (SU 3 NW 3)
Field Goals: none
Extra Points: good six times, (SU 0 NW 6)
Total for Kicking Game: SU 5, NW 14
1st down runs: 0, -4, 19, 0, 0, 2, 7, 14, 5, 9, 4, 7, 1(1), 6, 6, -1, 4, 18 (SU 6 NW 12)
1st down passes 6, I, I, I, 21, 1, 8, 13, 7, -11, 3, I, 4, 9(9) (SU 7 NW 7)
2nd down runs: -1, 5, 5, 6(3), 7, 3(5), 32(6), 3(3), 2(5), 1(3), -4, 3(6) (SU 4 NW 8)
2nd down passes: 21, 14(4), -7, I 7(5), 7(9), I, 5(2), 19(16), 25(7), 12(10), -9 (SU 4 NW 8)
3rd down runs: 7(5), 2(8), 1(3), 6(2), 7(2), 4(16), 8(15) (SU 4 NW 3)
3rd down passes: I, -5, 18(5), I, 9(4), I, I (SU 5 NW 2)
4th down runs -1 (SU 1 NW 0)
4th down passes: none
Total for NW scrimmage plays: SU 31 NW 40
Total for the game: SU 105 NW 116.
Well, that was a surprise! SU gained 596 yards to 337 for Northwestern and had 33 first downs to 21. You would think they won the plays “won” by a significant margin but in fact they lost 11 more plays than they won. How did this happen? SU did well poorly on first down runs, (6-11) and well on first down passes (15-9). Second down was pretty much of a wash, (14-16 overall). We did really well on third down and fourth down , (14-8, including 7 consecutive successful third down passes), which enabled us to keep the ball and run a lot more plays. But we weren’t necessarily winning all those plays, (only 48-44 on offense). The terrific third down rate was key to all the yards we gained and the points we scored. When Northwestern had the ball, they did really well on the first two downs, (21-34) but they did really badly on third and fourth down (5-10), so they didn’t keep the ball and have more plays.
There were plenty of big plays: Venric Mark, channeling Red Grange, had punt returns of 82 and 52 yards and a 32 yard run. Ryan Nassib had passes of 34, 50, 38 and 41 yards, (more long plays than I had remembered after the game). Kain Colter had two passes of 21yards. His back-up, Trevor Siemian had a 25 yarder. Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley both had 21 yard runs. And, of course, Chi Chi Ariguzo had a 33 yard fumble return and a 49 yard interception return. He and Mark were the difference in the game. Without them, we would have won by several touchdowns thanks to those third down conversions.
