Winning Plays 2017 (Clemson) | Syracusefan.com

Winning Plays 2017 (Clemson)

SWC75

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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.

- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .

- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.

- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.

- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE CLEMSON GAME

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: CL 38, CL 28, CL 25, CL 25, CL 35, CL 25
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 3
P: 42 to CL 37, 43 to CL 36, 20 to CL 45, 36 to SU 41
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 2
FG: Good from 21, Good from 30
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Clemson 5

1r: 21(15), 11, 8, -3, 0, 4, 2, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 0, 9, 3, 3, 6, 4, 5, -2V
Total: Syracuse 11 Clemson 9
1p: I, -5(S), I, 14, 66TD, -2(S), 15, 11, 28, I, 3, I, 11, 7, I, 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Clemson 18
2r: 8, 8(2), 3, 5(13), 2(12), -5, 3(5), 0, 6(7), 45(8), -6, 2(4), 2, -4V
Total: Syracuse 7 Clemson 7
2p: I, 20, I, 4, I, I, 30TD, 1(20), I, 11, I, -5(S)
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Clemson 15
3r: 3(2), Fumble-TD, -2, 4(1), 2(1), 3(2), 8(8), -3V
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 2
3p: 23TD, -7(S), -3, 6(5), 9(10), I, I, -8(S), 1(2), 9(12), 13(11)
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 10
4r: 5(1), 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Clemson 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Clemson 25
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Clemson 43

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -15, +15, +10, +14, -5, -15, -6, +5, -5, +15, -10, -14, +15, +5, -5 Syracuse 7 Clemson 10

Game total when had the ball: Syracuse 57 Clemson 58

Comments: We are now 12-0 running the ball on 4th and 1. We again got off to a bad start in 1st down passes, which are normally successful. We had the interception vs. LSU. Against NC State the interception on the first pass was on second down. On first down we has three incompletions and then a sack. Against Pitt, the first 4 were incomplete. In this game we had two incompletions and a sack. But in this game, we started by getting 40 yards on our first three first down runs. That established for both teams that we could – and would impose our will on Clemson. In turn that may have led to our third and fourth down success that ultimately decided the game. We didn’t get the advantage from Sterling Hofrichter’s punts we normally get but the 3rd and 4th down conversions made field positon less important.


When Clemson had the ball:

KO: SU 28, SU 25, SU 40, SU 18, SU 21
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 3
P: 46 to SU 7, 35 to SU 6, 44 to SU 31, 34 to SU 21, 50 to SU 1
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 4
FG: No Good from 35, Good from 30, No Good from 38
Total: Syracuse 2 Clemson 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 11

1r: 37TD, 0, 1, 9, -6, 0, 3, 5, 52TD, 6, 9, 1
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 6
1p: 6, 5, 24, 6, I, -12(S), I, 6, 12, I, 11, -8(2), -4(S)
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 Clemson 13
2r: 0, 6(16), 5(4), 2(4), 6(18)
Total: Syracuse 4 Clemson 1
2p: 14(4), 15(5), 0, 99), I, 12, I, 10(20), 8, 3, -6(S), 8(5), 8(1), 12(9), 8(14)
Total: Syracuse 5 Clemson 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 11
3r: 0, 4, 0, 3(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Clemson 1
3p: 2, 13(4), I, I, 12(16), I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Clemson 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Clemson 2
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 8
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Clemson 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 31 Clemson 26

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -15, -10, +10 Syracuse2 Clemson 2

Game total when Clemson had the ball: Syracuse 38 Clemson 39

Overall game total: Syracuse 95 Clemson 97

Comments: Clemson won on their kicks, 11-5 but those 2 missed field goals were huge. Both missed field goals shifted the momentum of the game when it seemed the Tigers were about to take over the game, (and take the lead). Obviously, since we won by three, they were critical misses; big enough to belie the stat. Scrimmage plays on both sides were 71-69. The running game had more to do with the result than the passing game. Offensively we won 26 of 44 running plays, (I count sacks with the passing plays). Defensively we won 13 of 21 running plays. That’s 39-26 on the type of play that’s all about controlling the line of scrimmage against a team we were supposedly unable to match up against in the trenches. We were 21-12 on 3rd and 4th downs on both sides of the ball, 50-57 on 1st and 2nd down.

Here are the similar games since 2011:
2011- Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2 Syracuse lost 21-28
2014- Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0 Syracuse lost 20-34
2015- Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0 Syracuse won 30-17
2015- Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5 Syracuse lost 24-34
2016- Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 Syracuse won 31-17
2017- Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3 Syracuse won 41-17
2017- Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 Syracuse won 27-24
The roulette wheel is spinning when “winning plays” is about equal. It’s going to be about what specifically happened on those plays.
 
GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 + 5-2 + 3-2 + 2-2 + 5-1 +3-3 = 31-13
P: 3-0 + 4-1 + 7-0 + 6-1 + 3-1 + 4-1 +2-2 = 29-6
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 +2-0 = 14-3
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 +3-0= 24-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 + 19-2 + 13-3 + 9-4 + 14-2 + 10-5 = 98-23

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 + 9-14 + 3-8 + 3-7 + 10-11 + 11-9 = 55-74
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 + 4-6 + 12-10 + 9-12 + 6-10 + 7-9 = 64-60
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21+ 13-20 + 15-18 + 12-19 + 16-21 + 18-18 = 119-134
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 + 6-6 + 0-4 + 2-7 + 4-5 + 7-7= 28-39
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 + 6-7 + 8-14 + 8-8 + 13-7 + 4-8 = 54-65
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 +12-13 + 8-18 + 10-15 +17-12 + 11-15 = 82-104
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 + 3-5 + 3-4 + 2-4 + 4-4 + 6-2 = 27-26
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 + 4-7 + 5-7 + 5-6 + 3-8 + 3-8 = 31-49
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 + 7-12 + 8-11 + 7-10 + 7-12 + 9-10 = 58-75
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 3-0 + 2-0 = 12-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 2-1 + 0-2 + 0-0 = 3-6
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 + 1-0 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 3-2 + 2-0 = 15-6

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 + 19-25 + 8-16 + 8-18 + 21-20 + 26-18 = 122-139
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 + 14-20 + 25-32 + 24-27 + 22-27 + 14-25 = 152-180
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 + 33-45 + 33-48 + 32-45 + 43-47 + 40-43 = 274-319

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 3-4 + 3-7 + 4-6 + 7-10 = 26-35

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 + 55-51 + 49-55 + 44-56 + 61-55 + 57-58 = 398-377

Comment: The first game all season where we won first down runs was against the team we were least likely to run the ball against: Clemson!

When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 + 3-1 + 1-6 + 3-4 + 0-4 + 2-3 = 13-21
P: 9-3 + 2-5 + 0-10 + 2-3 + 1-3 + 2-4 + 1-4= 17-32
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-1 = 3-7
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 1-3 + 0-2 + 0-3 = 1-20
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 + 3-14 + 3-14 + 6-12 + 2-13 + 5-11 = 34-80

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 + 12-8 + 8-11 + 13-12 + 7-6 + 6-6 = 65-55
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 + 11-6 + 5-4 + 8-6 + 5-9 + 6-7 = 50-39
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 + 23-14 + 13-15 + 21-18 + 12-15 + 12-13 = 115-94
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 + 4-5 + 3-9 + 5-7 + 5-3 + 4-1 = 33-32
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 + 11-6 + 6-2 + 4-12 + 5-5 + 5-10 = 44-46
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 + 15-11 + 9-11 + 9-19 + 10-8 + 9-11 = 77-78
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 + 1-4 + 1-3 + 1-3 + 3-1 + 3-1 = 19-12
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 7-1 + 7-2 + 6-1 = 47-15
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 + 9-7 + 6-7 + 8-4 + 10-3 + 9-2 = 66-27
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-0
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 5-2

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 + 18-17 + 12-23 + 21-22 + 15-10 + 13-8 = 120-99
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 + 30-26 + 16-10 + 19-19 + 17-10 + 18-18= 143-106
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 + 48-43 + 28-33 + 40-41 + 32-20 + 31-26 = 263-205

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 + 1-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 + 2-2 + 2-2 = 13-13

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41 + 52-59 + 31-48 + 49-56 + 36-35 + 38-39 = 310-298

Overall Game Total: 132-65 + 104-98 + 107-110 + 80-103+ 93-112 + 97-90 + 95-97 = 708-675

Comment: Dino Babers is supposed to be all about offense but we are actually doing better on defense this year (263-205) than on offense (274-319). A huge advantage on third down, (66-27) is a big reason for the defense’s success. The fact that the other team has only gone for it on fourth down 7 times is another, (they’ve only made it twice). We’ve gone for it three times as much (21 times) and made 15. Maybe we kept them far enough from a first down on the first three plays that they weren’t as inclined to try. But some of it is just conventional, (“Meathead”?) thinking.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27

Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4

Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23

Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23

TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31

Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4

Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20

TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6

Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 90 = +7
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
TOTAL: Syracuse 708 Opponents 675 = +33 We’ve ‘won’ 3 of 7 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 7,188 plays, (48.2%) and 28 games, (34.6%). The opposition has won 7,715 plays and 51 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 527 more plays than we have in 81 games, an average of 6.5 plays a game.
 

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