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[QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2346674, member: 289"]
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

-              On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

-              On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

-              On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.

-              Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .

-              If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

-              A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

-              On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.

-              On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

-              A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.

-              Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

-              A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (since it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play.  1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

THE CLEMSON GAME

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO:         CL 38, CL 28, CL 25, CL 25, CL 35, CL 25
Total:     Syracuse 3 Clemson 3
P:            42 to CL 37, 43 to CL 36, 20 to CL 45, 36 to SU 41
Total:     Syracuse 2  Clemson 2
FG:         Good from 21, Good from 30
Total:     Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
XP:         Good, Good, Good
Total:     Syracuse 3 Clemson 0
Kicking plays total:           Syracuse 10 Clemson 5

1r:           21(15), 11, 8, -3, 0, 4, 2, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 0, 9, 3, 3, 6, 4, 5, -2V
Total:     Syracuse 11 Clemson 9
1p:          I, -5(S), I, 14, 66TD, -2(S), 15, 11, 28, I, 3, I, 11, 7, I, 0
Total:     Syracuse 7 Clemson 9
First Down Total:              Syracuse 18 Clemson 18
2r:           8, 8(2), 3, 5(13), 2(12), -5, 3(5), 0, 6(7), 45(8), -6, 2(4), 2, -4V
Total:     Syracuse 7 Clemson 7
2p:          I, 20, I, 4, I, I, 30TD, 1(20), I, 11, I, -5(S)
Total:     Syracuse 4 Clemson 8
Second Down Total:        Syracuse 11 Clemson 15
3r:           3(2), Fumble-TD, -2, 4(1), 2(1), 3(2), 8(8), -3V
Total:     Syracuse 6 Clemson 2
3p:          23TD, -7(S), -3, 6(5), 9(10), I, I, -8(S), 1(2), 9(12), 13(11)
Total:     Syracuse 3 Clemson 8
Third Down Total:            Syracuse 9 Clemson 10
4r:           5(1), 3(1)
Total:     Syracuse 2 Clemson 0
4p:          none
Total:     Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total:         Syracuse 2 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Clemson 18
Total on passing plays:   Syracuse 14 Clemson 25
Total on plays from scrimmage:                 Syracuse 40 Clemson 43

Penalties not tacked on to plays:  -5, -15, +15, +10, +14, -5, -15, -6, +5, -5, +15, -10, -14, +15, +5, -5             Syracuse 7 Clemson 10

Game total when  had the ball:                 Syracuse 57 Clemson 58

Comments: We are now 12-0 running the ball on 4th and 1. We again got off to a bad start in 1st down passes, which are normally successful. We had the interception vs. LSU. Against NC State the interception on the first pass was on second down. On first down we has three incompletions and then a sack. Against Pitt, the first 4 were incomplete. In this game we had two incompletions and a sack. But in this game, we started by getting 40 yards on our first three first down runs. That established for both teams that we could – and would impose our will on Clemson. In turn that may have led to our third and fourth down success that ultimately decided the game.  We didn’t get the advantage from Sterling Hofrichter’s punts we normally get but the 3rd and 4th down conversions made field positon less important.

When Clemson had the ball:

KO:         SU 28, SU 25, SU 40, SU 18, SU 21
Total:     Syracuse 2 Clemson 3
P:            46 to SU 7, 35 to SU 6, 44 to SU 31, 34 to SU 21, 50 to SU 1
Total:     Syracuse 1 Clemson 4
FG:         No Good from 35, Good from 30, No Good from 38
Total:     Syracuse 2 Clemson 1
XP:         Good, Good, Good
Total:     Syracuse 0 Clemson 3
Kicking plays total:           Syracuse 5  Clemson 11

1r:           37TD, 0, 1, 9, -6, 0, 3, 5, 52TD, 6, 9, 1
Total:     Syracuse 6 Clemson 6
1p:          6, 5, 24, 6, I, -12(S), I, 6, 12, I, 11, -8(2), -4(S)
Total:     Syracuse 6 Clemson 7
First Down Total:              Syracuse 12 Clemson 13
2r:           0, 6(16), 5(4), 2(4), 6(18)
Total:     Syracuse 4 Clemson 1
2p:          14(4), 15(5), 0, 99), I, 12, I, 10(20), 8, 3, -6(S), 8(5), 8(1), 12(9), 8(14)
Total:     Syracuse 5 Clemson 10
Second Down Total:        Syracuse 9 Clemson 11
3r:           0, 4, 0, 3(2)
Total:     Syracuse 3 Clemson 1
3p:          2, 13(4), I, I, 12(16), I, I
Total:     Syracuse 6 Clemson 1
Third Down Total:            Syracuse 9 Clemson 2
4r:           none
Total:     Syracuse 0 Clemson 0
4p:          I
Total:     Syracuse 1 Clemson 0
Fourth Down Total:         Syracuse 1 Clemson 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Clemson 8
Total on passing plays:   Syracuse 18 Clemson 18
Total on plays from scrimmage:                 Syracuse 31 Clemson 26

Penalties not tacked on to plays:  +5, -15, -10, +10            Syracuse2 Clemson 2

Game total when Clemson had the ball:                Syracuse 38 Clemson 39

Overall game total:          Syracuse 95 Clemson 97

Comments: Clemson won on their kicks, 11-5 but those 2 missed field goals were huge. Both missed field goals shifted the momentum of the game when it seemed the Tigers were about to take over the game, (and take the lead). Obviously, since we won by three, they were critical misses; big enough to belie the stat. Scrimmage plays on both sides were 71-69. The running game had more to do with the result than the passing game. Offensively we won 26 of 44 running plays, (I count sacks with the passing plays). Defensively we won 13 of 21 running plays. That’s 39-26 on the type of play that’s all about controlling the line of scrimmage against a team we were supposedly unable to match up against in the trenches. We were 21-12 on 3rd and 4th downs on both sides of the ball, 50-57 on 1st and 2nd down.

Here are the similar games since 2011:
2011- Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2                     Syracuse lost 21-28
2014- Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0                           Syracuse lost 20-34
2015- Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0                     Syracuse won 30-17
2015- Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5               Syracuse lost 24-34
2016- Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1               Syracuse won 31-17
2017- Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 110 = -3      Syracuse won 41-17
2017- Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2                            Syracuse won 27-24
The roulette wheel is spinning when “winning plays” is about equal. It’s going to be about what specifically happened on those plays.
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