Winning Plays: Florida State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: FS 25, SU 45 (onsides failed)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
P: 24 to FS 44 (partially blocked), 35 to FS 25, 62 to FS 17, 35 to FS 8, 43 to FS 10, 50 to FS 26, 53 to FS 7, 58 to FS 22 (fumbled to SU), 60 to FS 10
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 2
FG: No attempts
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 3

1r: 2, 3, 0, 7, 2(13), 2, 3, 5, -2, 1, 2, 6
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 9
1p: 4, I, I, I, 7, 13(5), 4, I, I, 4, I, 5, 3, I, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 18
2r: 3(6), 2(7), 2, 0, 7(11), 1(6), 1, 6, 0, 7(5), 2
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 11
2p: I, 29, I, I, -4(S), 7(3), Interception, 46TD, 7(6), I, I, -6(S), I, 5
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 20
3r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
3p: 12(8), I, -4(S), -2(S), I, -5(S), Interception, -3(S), 16(9), I, 17TD, 8(7), 12(23), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 9
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 10
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
4p: -2(S)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 7 Florida State 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Florida State 28
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 Florida State 50

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +5, -5, -5, -5, -5, +15, +10, -15 Syracuse 4 Florida State 6

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 36 Florida State 59

Comments: Our third down passes are interesting to look at. We lost 14 yards and threw a pick in 7 consecutive plays, then gained 53 yards and scored a TD on the next 5. Our running game is hard to look at no matter how many different ways you try.

One area where we were as good or better than the Noles was in the kicking game, with Sterling Hofrichter’s booming punts and Brisley Estime’s explosive kick returning. We gained an average of 47 net yards per punt. They gained an average of 17. We may not like punting but we are very good at it. Of course matt Park said that if you’re talking about the punting, it means you probably lost.


When FLORIDA STATE had the ball:

KO: SU 16, SU 25, SU 28, SU 25, SU 17, SU 36, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 5
P: 6 to FS 39, 12 to FS 50, 33 to FS 42
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 0
FG: No Good from 54, Good from 42
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 6
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 12

1r: 21, 41, -1, 6, 2, Interception, 14, 6, 2, 25TD, 18, Fumble, 11, 9, 10, 5, 1, 17TD, -8(P), -1, 4, 9, Fumble, 2, 14, 6, -4, 5(16), 9
Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 18
1p: 14, I, 15, I, I, 18, I, I, -5(S), 39, 28, 14, 5, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Florida State 25
2r: 5, 4, 0, 0, 11(15), 11TD, 11(4), 8TD, 9(1), 15(5), 4(4), 2, 7
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 10
2p: 15TD, 12(10), 16(8), 12(8), -2(S), I, 16(5), 28(19-P), 7(8), 3(14)
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 17
3r: 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
3p: 16TD, I, I, 21(4), 28(12), I, 10(4), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 5
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Florida State 29
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Florida State 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Florida State 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +5, -5 Syracuse 1 Florida State 2

Game total when FLORIDA STATE had the ball: Syracuse 35 Florida State 61

Overall game total: Syracuse 71 Florida State 120

Comments: First down plays for State were wild. Fifteen of them went for 10+ yards. Seven of those were the first play of a possession. Two went for scores. But they also lost yardage five times, (once due to a holding penalty) and turned the ball over three times. Their third down passes had a similar result: we stopped them 4 times in 8 plays but gave up 75 yards on the other four plays. To quote Coach Babers, we were occasionally great, not consistently good.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-5, 2-0, 4-1, 2-3, 0-1, 3-2, 1-1 = 27-21
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3, 6-3, 6-4, 3-0, 3-1, 5-3, 3-3, 7-2 = 49-25
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 2-0, 0-0 = 10-8
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0, 4-0, 4-0, 0-0, 2-0, 2-0 = 29-2
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7, 10-11, 9-4, 12-3, 9-5, 5-5, 10-5, 10-3 = 115-56

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11, 6-8, 4-11, 9-10, 6-11, 6-9, 1-9, 3-9 = 61-114
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5, 14-10, 6-7, 9-14, 13-6, 3-11, 3-8, 6-9 = 90-99
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16, 20-18, 10-18, 18-24, 19-17, 9-20, 4-17, 9-18 = 151-213
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4, 8-6, 5-9, 12-6, 5-5, 2-7, 3-7, 4-11 = 57-79
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8, 9-7, 3-4, 6-8, 13-4, 5-7, 3-5, 5-9 = 77-77
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12, 17-13, 8-13, 18-14, 18-9, 7-14, 6-12, 9-20 = 134-156
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 3-3, 0-1 = 26-31
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4, 1-8, 2-7, 8-9, 5-5, 4-9, 2-5, 4-9 = 57-75
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6, 3-13, 5-11, 10-11, 6-8, 5-10, 5-8, 4-10 = 83-106
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-1 = 4-4
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 4-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-0, 0-1 = 10-5
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1, 0-2 =14-9

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17, 17-19, 12-24, 23-19, 12-19, 10-17, 7-20, 7-22 = 148-228
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17, 24-25, 12-18, 27-31, 32-15, 12-28, 9-18, 15-28 = 234-256
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34, 41-44, 24-42, 50-50, 44-34, 22-45, 16-38, 22-50 = 382-484

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2, 2-4, 0-3, 3-5, 1-8, 0-5, 1-3, 4-6 = 16-50

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43, 53-59, 33-49, 65-58, 54-47, 27-55, 27-46, 36-59 = -513-590

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 44% of the plays from scrimmage. First down runs are the biggest problem, (61-114). We had been doing well on third down through four games (45-35) but are (38-71) since, mostly due to a poor record on third down passes (24-47). Strangely we are doing fairly well on third and fourth down runs, (30-35). Our overall fourth down record is good (14-9), suggesting we might try it more often.

When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2, 2-7, 1-5, 0-4, 0-3, 2-8, 1-5, 2-5 = 15-55
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4, 4-1, 2-5, 1-3, 2-4, 1-2, 3-1, 3-0 = 23-37
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1 = 5-12
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3, 0-6, 0-4, 1-1, 0-2, 1-6, 0-5, 0-6 = 2-48
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10, 7-16, 3-14, 3-9, 2-11, 5-18, 4-11, 6-12 = 45-152

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11, 14-5, 9-10, 10-9, 9-9, 12-15, 12-15, 11-18 = 106-128
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5, 7-13, 5-8, 9-4, 5-3, 9-5, 6-5, 7-7 = 76-71
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16, 21-18, 14-18, 19-13, 14-12, 21-20, 18-20, 18-25 = 182-199
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8, 2-8, 9-8, 7-7, 8-7, 7-6, 7-7, 3-10 = 65-78
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9, 5-6, 3-2, 1-10, 4-1, 7-11, 6-4, 3-7 = 55-56
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17, 7-14, 12-10, 8-17, 12-8, 14-17, 13-11, 6-17 = 120-134
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2, 2-1, 6-5, 1-3, 2-3, 5-1, 0-4, 0-1 = 22-27
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7, 6-1, 3-4, 5-3, 7-2, 2-7, 8-6, 4-4 = 69-42
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9, 8-2, 9-9, 6-6, 9-5, 7-8, 8-10, 4-5 = 91-69
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0 = 3-5
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-0 = 3-5
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2, 0-3, 0-0 = 6-10

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23, 18-14, 25-23, 19-19, 19-19, 24-23, 19-27, 14-29 = 196-238
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23, 19-20, 11-14, 15-17, 17-6, 18-24, 20-17, 14-18 = 203-174
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46, 37-34, 36-37, 34-36, 36-25, 42-47, 39-44, 28-47 = 399-412

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 1-2 = 11-10

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56, 45-52, 39-52, 38-46, 39-37, 47-65, 44-57, 35-61 = 455-574

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99, 98-111, 72-101, 103-104, 93-84, 74-120, 71-103, 71-120 = 968-1164

Comment: We finally went in the red in defensive plays from scrimmage (399-412: -13), but that’s still better than we did on offense: on offensive plays from scrimmage,(382-484: -102) so our maligned defense has really been better than our flashy offense on a play-to-play basis. It’s mostly the big plays from scrimmage and the special teams breakdowns that have hurt us. We are 15-55 on opponent’s kick-offs: they are 21-27 when we kick off. Ironically, considering our obvious problems defending passes we are excellent against third down passes (69-42). We are 61-114 on first down rushing plays. Our opposition is 128-106. How you start has a lot to do with where you finish.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120
TOTAL: Syracuse 968 Opponent 1164 We've 'won' 2 of 11 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,667 plays, (47.9%) and 26 games, (36.6%). The opposition has won 7,244 plays and 45 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 577 more plays than we have in the last 6 seasons, an average of 96 plays per season.

 

[kcsu]

You are a machine. Off the chain. Great job thank you.