Winning Plays: Florida State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25, SU 25, SU 4, SU 26, SU 18, SU 7, SU 25, SU 19, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25 = 300/14 = SU 21 with 1,100 yards to go

KO: FS 25, FS 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0
P: 46 to FS 20, 29 to FS 25, 51 to FS 19, 53 to FS 42(p’s), 57 to FS 30(p), -26 to SU 9, 27 to FS 28, 45 to FS 29
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 3
FG: Good from 32, No Good from 37
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 4

1r: 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, -1v, 5(13), 2, 0, 1, 25, 0, 3, 5, 2
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 11
1p: -5(s), 11, 9, FUMBLE(s), 2 I, 15, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 17
2r: 7(8), 1(7), 2(4), 0, 8(1), 0, 6(8), 4, 3, 1, 1(7), 3(5)
Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 6
2p: I, -6(s), -1, -4, I, I, I, 8, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 14
3r: 8(1), 4(8), 27(7), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 2
3p: 14(15), I, I, 18, I, I, 22, I, 22, I, I, I, I, 21(6), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 13
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 15
4r: 5(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
4p: INTERCEPTION
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Florida State 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Florida State 28
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 23 Florida State 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Florida State 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 30 Florida State 53

Big Plays: Stop on 4th down, Stop on 4th down, 22 yard pass, 27 yard rush, 22 yard pass, 25 yard rush, 21 yard pass. (7)


When Florida State had the ball:

Drive Starts: FS 20, FS 25, FS 19, FS 25, SU 5, FS 46, FS 12, FS 25, FS 30, FS 20, SU 9, FS 20, FS 29, FS 32 = 489/14 = FS 35 with 911 yards to go.

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 8
P: 47 to SU 26, 47 to SU 18, 35 to SU 7, 46 to SU 19
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 4
FG: Good from 48, Good from 19
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 5

1r: 5, 2TD, 2, 4, 1, 19, 2, 5, 7, 5, 5, 7, 4, 2, 3, 4, 0v
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 12
1p: 11, 27, -1, I, 9, I, 58TD, 5, 11, -12(s), 4, 39, I, 16, 44TD
Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 21
2r: 3(5), 19(1), 1(6), 5(22), 14(3), 3(5), 5(7), 7(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 6
2p: 7(11), I, 19, 2, I, I, I, I, -3, 6(5), 2(3), 3, -6(s), 7
Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 11
3r: 14(4), 2, 7(8), 2TD, 2(1), 50TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5
3p: 12(2), I, 12, I, 8(5), 6, 27, I, I, I, 13(1)
Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 12
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 Florida State 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Florida State 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Florida State 46

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Florida State 0

Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 30 Florida State 65

Big Plays: 27 yard pass, 58TD pass, 27 yard pass, SU Fumble, 39 yard pass, 50 yard TD run, 44 yard TD pass, Interception (8)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 61 Florida State 116

Comments: The perception was that our offense was awful but our defense wasn’t too bad. Actually, they were comparably bad. Plays from scrimmage were 23-44 when we had the ball and 28-46 when they did. Our defense had a good second quarter: 9-10 with those two fourth down stops, one after a Garret Shrader fumble had given them the ball on the 5 yard line. In the other three quarters, our defense was 19-36.

Thanks to LeQuint Allen, (and the people blocking for him, (who seem to be better at run blocking than pass blocking), we did a decent job running the ball: 15-19. But LeQuint gained 110 of our 124 yards. Garrett Shrader wasn’t able to add anything, (12 yards forward, 22 backwards dur to sacks). We went to a two back offense a few times and Juwaun Price got 20 yards in 8 carries.

Our passing game did little: 8-28. Sutomcat observed: “Lots of max protect blocking schemes on passing plays. On a lot of the passing plays, we sent one or two WRs out (working against 4 or 5 DBs). They aren’t great getting open under the best of circumstances but asking them to get open against really good athletes while badly outnumbered was a big ask.” Here’s my comment from “Why Syracuse Will Win” on Friday: “Just considering the 6 and 5, [games played by the teams our edge in] the first downs hold up (133-126), as do the sacks (18-16), TFLs, (47-36) and punts returned (18-13). Despite Jared Verse, they don’t seem to have much of a pass rush.” Why were we in ‘maximum protection’?

We were down only 7-8 in big plays. But three of their big plays went the distance. Obviously, none of ours did.

In the early games, we were dominating the kicking game. Now we’re being dominated:
SU: (SU score first) 21-1 + 18-1 + 12-3 + 14-2 + 9-2 + 8-1 + 8-4 = 90-14
Opp: (SU score first) 3-7 + 3-6 + 0-9 + 4-8 + 2-16 + 0-17 + 0-19 = 12-82
That’s 65-7 vs. 10-30 during the four-game winning streak and 25-7 vs. 2-52 during the three game losing streak. Both teams had 14 possessions. We had a total of 1,100 yards to get to the goal and they had 911. That, effectively, is another 189 yards of offense for the Noles. And they had a 261-535 edge as it was. Field position made it -463. That’s how you lose 3-41.

Don’t lump together the Clemson game, (81-95) with the North Carolina, (76-106) and Florida State, (61-116) games. We COMPETED against Clemson and lost due to turnovers, including the interceptions we dropped. The other two games were discouraging blow-outs.

This was a -55 game, (61-116) These are the most similar games in the Babers era:
This was a -55 game, (61-116) These are the most similar games in the Babers era;
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost, 0-54
2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 We lost 21-45
2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2022 Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We lost 24-41
So, in terms of getting the minimum we would have wanted out if each play, this was the worst game of the Dino Babers era.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts:
564/14 = SU 40 with 836 yards to go
301/12 = SU 25 with 899 yards to go
326/12 = SU 27 with 874 yards to go
443/12 = SU 37 with 757 yards to go
347/14 = SU 24 with 1,054 yards to go
268/11 = SU 24 with 832 yards to go
300/14 = SU 21 with 1,100 yards to go
2,549/89 = SU 29 with 6,352 yards to go

KO: 11-0 + 6-1 + 6-0 + 6-1 + 3-0 + 2-0 + 2-0 = 36-2
P: 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 3-0 + 4-1 + 5-1 + 5-3 = 23-7
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-1 + 3-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 7-3
XP: 8-1 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 24-2
Kicking plays total: 21-1 + 18-1 + 12-3 + 14-2 + 9-2 + 8-1 + 7-4 = 90-14

1r: 14-14 + 7-11 + 12-9 + 10-7 + 4-7 + 7-6 + 6-11 = 60-65
1p: 11-3 + 7-9 + 4-9 + 9-2 + 2-12 + 5-4 + 3-6 = 41-45
First Down Total: 25-17 + 14-20 + 16-18 + 19-9 + 6-19 + 12-10 + 9-17 = 101-110
2r: 12-5 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 10-6 + 8-4 + 5-2 + 6-6 = 54-30
2p: 7-5 + 5-9 + 7-6 + 3-2 + 7-3 + 6-6 + 1-8 = 36-39
Second Down Total: 19-10 + 13-12 + 12-10 + 13-8 + 15-7 + 11-8 + 7-14 = 90-69
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 5-0 + 0-4 + 6-2 + 2-3 + 2-2 = 21-14
3p: 7-4 + 5-5 + 2-5 + 3-4 + 3-6 + 2-3 + 4-13 = 26-43
Third Down Total: 11-6 + 7-6 + 7-5 + 3-8 + 9-8 + 4-6 + 6-15 = 47-54
4r: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 1-2
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-5

Total on running plays: 30-22 + 17-15 + 22-13 + 20-18 + 18-13 + 14-11 + 15-19 = 136-111
Total on passing plays: 25-12 + 17-23 + 13-21 + 16-8 + 12-21 + 13-13 + 8-28 = 104-126
Total on plays from scrimmage: 55-34 + 34-38 + 35-34 + 36-26 + 30-34 + 27-24 + 23-47 = 240-237

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-2 + 4-4 + 6-1 + 0-2 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 = 13-17

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 76-37 + 56-43 + 53-38 + 50-30 + 42-38 + 35-29 + 31-53 = 343-268

Big Plays: 12 + 8 + 13 + 8 + 5 + 3 + 7 = 56


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts:
399/16 = Colgate 25 with 1,201 yards to go
316/12 = W Michigan 26 with 884 yards to go
325/11 = Purdue 30 with 775 yards to go
266/11 = Army 24 with 834 yards to go
560/14 = Clemson 40 with 840 yards to go
301/10 = North Carolina 30 with 699 yards to go
489/14 = Florida State 35 with 911 yards to go
2,656/88 = Opposition 30 with 6,144 yards to go

KO: 0-1 + 2-0 + 0-4 + 1-3 + 0-6 + 0-8 + 0-8 = 3-30
P: 3-6 + 1-5 + 0-2 + 2-3 + 1-5 + 0-1 + 0-4 = 7-26
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 = 1-8
XP: 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 1-1 + 0-4 + 0-4 + 0-5 = 1-18
Kicking plays total: 3-7 + 3-6 + 0-9 + 4-8 + 2-16 + 0-17 + 0-19 = 12-82

1r: 14-6 + 13-1 + 9-9 + 7-7 + 9-9 + 7-7 + 5-12 = 64-51
1p: 1-1 + 6-5 + 9-11 + 8-3 + 6-6 + 10-20 + 5-9 = 45-55
First Down Total: 15-7 + 19-6 + 18-20 + 15-10 + 15-15 + 17-27 + 10-21 = 109-106
2r: 3-3 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 4-8 + 3-7 + 4-14 + 2-6 = 21-46
2p: 9-3 + 9-10 + 8-9 + 5-4 + 9-5 + 8-6 + 9-5 = 57-42
Second Down Total: 12-6 + 11-14 + 11-13 + 9-12 + 12-12 + 12-20 + 11-11 = 78-88
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 4-8 + 1-4 + 4-6 + 1-5 = 19-27
3p: 9-1 + 11-5 + 4-3 + 2-3 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 4-7 = 39-30
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 13-6 + 7-4 + 6-11 + 6-10 + 8-11 + 5-12 = 58-57
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 2-3
4p: 1-0 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 11-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 4-1 + 3-1 + 1-3 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 = 13-5

Total on running plays: 21-11 + 17-6 + 16-14 + 15-26 + 13-20 + 15-27 + 9-23 = 106-127
Total on passing plays: 20-5 + 30-21 + 23-24 + 16-10 + 21-17 + 23-31 + 19-21 = 152-129
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-16 + 47-27 + 39-38 + 31-36 + 34-37 + 38-58 + 28-44 = 258-256

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 3-0 + 4-3 + 2-0 + 3-4 + 3-2 + 2-0 = 23-11

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 50-25 + 53-33 + 43-50 + 37-44 + 39-57 + 41-77 + 30-63 = 293-349

Big Plays: 4 + 3 + 7 + 4 + 8 + 7 + 8 = 41

Overall Game Total: 126-62 + 109-76 + 96-88 + 87-74 + 81-95 + 76-106 + 61-116 = 636-617

Comments:

We’ve kicked the ball 104 times and got what we wanted out of it 90 times, (87%). Our opposition has kicked the ball just 94 times and got what they wanted 82 times, (87%). Our advantage is gone. Our advantage in field position has become a deficit, (5,352 yards to go vs. 5,144).

We’ve 4-3 but are 60-65 in first down runs. That isn’t dominating. But 54-30 is. That was our rate of winning second down runs. I guess the greater threat of a pass after first down loosened up the defense. Where we are really doing well is on defense: 64-51 on first down runs. We’re also pretty good at stopping third and fourth down passes, 52-32. Those are two very good downs to dominate.

If we keep up a ratio of 56 big plays to 41 we should do pretty well. But against Clemson and North Carolina it’s been 15-23.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41
Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32
Syracuse 107 Boston College 79 = +28
Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We ‘won’ 7 of 13 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,109 opponents 1,103 = +6

2023
Syracuse 126 Colgate 62 = +64
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76 = +33
Syracuse 96 Purdue 88 = +8
Syracuse 87 Army 74 = +13
Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 = -14
Syracuse 76 North Carolina 106
Syracuse 61 Florida State 116 We’ve won 4 of 7 games.
TOTAL: Syracuse 636 Opponents 617 = +19
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 8,387 plays, (48.8%) and 36 games, (38.8%). The opposition has won 8,795 plays and 57 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 388 more plays than we have in 93 games, an average of 4.2 plays a game. Things are back to about where they were before the Colgate game.