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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4796198, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs. When Syracuse had the ball: Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25, SU 25, SU 4, SU 26, SU 18, SU 7, SU 25, SU 19, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25 = 300/14 = SU 21 with 1,100 yards to go KO: FS 25, FS 25 Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0 P: 46 to FS 20, 29 to FS 25, 51 to FS 19, 53 to FS 42(p’s), 57 to FS 30(p), -26 to SU 9, 27 to FS 28, 45 to FS 29 Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 3 FG: Good from 32, No Good from 37 Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1 XP: none Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Florida State 4 1r: 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, -1v, 5(13), 2, 0, 1, 25, 0, 3, 5, 2 Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 11 1p: -5(s), 11, 9, FUMBLE(s), 2 I, 15, I, I Total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 6 First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 17 2r: 7(8), 1(7), 2(4), 0, 8(1), 0, 6(8), 4, 3, 1, 1(7), 3(5) Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 6 2p: I, -6(s), -1, -4, I, I, I, 8, I Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 8 Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 14 3r: 8(1), 4(8), 27(7), 1(2) Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 2 3p: 14(15), I, I, 18, I, I, 22, I, 22, I, I, I, I, 21(6), I Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 13 Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 15 4r: 5(1) Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0 4p: INTERCEPTION Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 Florida State 19 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 8 Florida State 28 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 23 Florida State 47 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5 Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 30 Florida State 53 Big Plays: Stop on 4th down, Stop on 4th down, 22 yard pass, 27 yard rush, 22 yard pass, 25 yard rush, 21 yard pass. (7) When Florida State had the ball: Drive Starts: FS 20, FS 25, FS 19, FS 25, SU 5, FS 46, FS 12, FS 25, FS 30, FS 20, SU 9, FS 20, FS 29, FS 32 = 489/14 = FS 35 with 911 yards to go. KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25 Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 8 P: 47 to SU 26, 47 to SU 18, 35 to SU 7, 46 to SU 19 Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 4 FG: Good from 48, Good from 19 Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 2 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 5 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 5 1r: 5, 2TD, 2, 4, 1, 19, 2, 5, 7, 5, 5, 7, 4, 2, 3, 4, 0v Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 12 1p: 11, 27, -1, I, 9, I, 58TD, 5, 11, -12(s), 4, 39, I, 16, 44TD Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 9 First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 21 2r: 3(5), 19(1), 1(6), 5(22), 14(3), 3(5), 5(7), 7(6) Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 6 2p: 7(11), I, 19, 2, I, I, I, I, -3, 6(5), 2(3), 3, -6(s), 7 Total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 5 Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 11 3r: 14(4), 2, 7(8), 2TD, 2(1), 50TD Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 5 3p: 12(2), I, 12, I, 8(5), 6, 27, I, I, I, 13(1) Total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 7 Third Down Total: Syracuse 5 Florida State 12 4r: 0 Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0 4p: I Total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 0 Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 Florida State 23 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Florida State 21 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 28 Florida State 46 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Florida State 0 Game total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 30 Florida State 65 Big Plays: 27 yard pass, 58TD pass, 27 yard pass, SU Fumble, 39 yard pass, 50 yard TD run, 44 yard TD pass, Interception (8) Overall Game Total: Syracuse 61 Florida State 116 Comments: The perception was that our offense was awful but our defense wasn’t too bad. Actually, they were comparably bad. Plays from scrimmage were 23-44 when we had the ball and 28-46 when they did. Our defense had a good second quarter: 9-10 with those two fourth down stops, one after a Garret Shrader fumble had given them the ball on the 5 yard line. In the other three quarters, our defense was 19-36. Thanks to LeQuint Allen, (and the people blocking for him, (who seem to be better at run blocking than pass blocking), we did a decent job running the ball: 15-19. But LeQuint gained 110 of our 124 yards. Garrett Shrader wasn’t able to add anything, (12 yards forward, 22 backwards dur to sacks). We went to a two back offense a few times and Juwaun Price got 20 yards in 8 carries. Our passing game did little: 8-28. Sutomcat observed: “Lots of max protect blocking schemes on passing plays. On a lot of the passing plays, we sent one or two WRs out (working against 4 or 5 DBs). They aren’t great getting open under the best of circumstances but asking them to get open against really good athletes while badly outnumbered was a big ask.” Here’s my comment from “Why Syracuse Will Win” on Friday: “Just considering the 6 and 5, [games played by the teams our edge in] the first downs hold up (133-126), as do the sacks (18-16), TFLs, (47-36) and punts returned (18-13). Despite Jared Verse, they don’t seem to have much of a pass rush.” Why were we in ‘maximum protection’? We were down only 7-8 in big plays. But three of their big plays went the distance. Obviously, none of ours did. In the early games, we were dominating the kicking game. Now we’re being dominated: SU: (SU score first) 21-1 + 18-1 + 12-3 + 14-2 + 9-2 + 8-1 + 8-4 = 90-14 Opp: (SU score first) 3-7 + 3-6 + 0-9 + 4-8 + 2-16 + 0-17 + 0-19 = 12-82 That’s 65-7 vs. 10-30 during the four-game winning streak and 25-7 vs. 2-52 during the three game losing streak. Both teams had 14 possessions. We had a total of 1,100 yards to get to the goal and they had 911. That, effectively, is another 189 yards of offense for the Noles. And they had a 261-535 edge as it was. Field position made it -463. That’s how you lose 3-41. Don’t lump together the Clemson game, (81-95) with the North Carolina, (76-106) and Florida State, (61-116) games. We COMPETED against Clemson and lost due to turnovers, including the interceptions we dropped. The other two games were discouraging blow-outs. This was a -55 game, (61-116) These are the most similar games in the Babers era: This was a -55 game, (61-116) These are the most similar games in the Babers era; 2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost, 0-54 2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 We lost 21-45 2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58 2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31 2022 Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We lost 24-41 So, in terms of getting the minimum we would have wanted out if each play, this was the worst game of the Dino Babers era. [/QUOTE]

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