Winning Plays: Florida State

[SWC75]

I’m going to use the same system used last year to break down games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room.


The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.


Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.


I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.


I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.


10/13/13: I’m going to make a minor but necessary change. I’ve been keeping track of penalties that negated plays, rather than being tacked onto them in a separate category. I’ve then been counting all such penalties as “lost” plays when the penalized team had the ball simply because that was the page upon which I recorded this stat. I realized I should be counting the defensive penalties on the other page. So I will separate them out on each page and have adjusted the totals for past games accordingly.

FLORIDA STATE

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO- FS 23, FS 36 (SU 1 FS 1)
P- 50(FS26), 38(FS21), 20(SU39, (46(FS21), 18(FS38), 10(SU46), 43(FS17) (SU 3 FS 4)
FG GOOD from 32 (SU 1 FS 0)
XP none
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 5 Florida State 5

1st rush- 2, 2, 1, 1, -3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 1, 7, 3, 0, 3, 6, 4, 3, 1, 2, 12, 7, 3 (SU 7 FS 16)
1st pass- 10(2), 4, I, I, 10, I, I, I (SU 3 FS 5)
First Down total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 21
2nd rush- -3, 0, 8(8), 4, -3, 2, 5, 5(4), 4(3), 11(4), 4(6), 2(7), 7(8), 4(3),0, 4(15) (SU 9 FS 7)
2nd pass- 5, 5(8), -4, 7(9), 4(6), 23(13), 2(9), I, 7(10), I (SU 6 FS 4)
Second Down total: Syracuse 15 Florida State 8
3rd run- 0, 2(6), 10(13), -1, 2(1), 28(7) (SU 2 FS 4)
3rd pass- I, 8(3), I, -2, 2(2), I, I, 4(3), 10(7), 4(5), I (SU 4 FS 7)
Third Down total: Syracuse 6 Florida State 11
4th run- -15, 4(1) (SU 1 FS 1)
4th pass- 4(3) (SU 1 FS 0)
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 2 Florida State 1)
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 33 Florida State 44

Penalties: SU- 10, 5 FS- 5
Turnovers: Fumble, Interception
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 1 Florida State 4

Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 39 Florida State 53

When Florida State had the ball:

KO- SU25, SU25, SU 25, SU20, SU27, SU22, SU25, SU25, SU25 (SU 1 FS 8)
P- 47(SU20), 42(SU16) (SU 0 FS 2)
FG GOOD from 53 (SU 0 FS 1)
XP G,G,G,G,G,G,G,G (SU 0 FS 8)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 1 Florida State 19

1st rush- 74TD, 2, 4, 19, 12, 8, 2, 16, -2 (SU 3 FS 6)
1st pass- -1, 19, 13, 9, 23, 29, -5, 18, 6TD, I, 11, 9, 6TD, -7, 12, -9, 0, 4 (SU 6 FS 12)
First Down total: Syracuse 9 Florida State 18
2nd rush- 3TD, 12(3), 4TD, 9(10< 56(2), 2(6) (SU 1 FSU 5)
2nd pass- 34(11), 20(15), 15, 19(1), 11(17), 5(19), 17TD, I (SU 2 FS 6)
Second Down total: Syracuse 3 Florida State 11
3rd run- 7(14), 37(1) (SU 1 FS 1)
3rd pass- I (SU 0 FS 1)
Third Down total: Syracuse 1 Florida State 2
4th run- none
4th pass-none
Fourth Down total: none
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 13 Florida State 31

Penalties: SU- 5 FS- 5
Turnovers: Interception
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 2 Florida State 1

Total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 16 Florida State 51

Overall kicking game total: SU 6 FS 24
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 46 FS 75
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 3 FS 5
Game Total: Syracuse 55 Florida State 104

Comments: Again we got dominated in “winning” plays, -59 but that was not as great as Clemson -72 or Georgia Tech -67. The big key was explosive plays. We ran 77 plays to 44 for the home team. But only 6 of our plays gained 10 or more years, with the longest for 28 yards. 20 of their 44 plays went for 10+ yards, 5 of them for more than 28.Our first 8 first down runs gained 3 yards or less, (a total of 9). Another thing that wasn’t much talked about was the discrepancy in the kicking game: 5-5 when we kicked vs. 1-19 when they kicked. A lot of that was that we were punting and they were kicking off, when it’s easier to get good results. But we set them up in our own territory on punts three times. And, on top of everything, they kicked a 53 yard field goal. They were just better at everything than we were.

 

[SWC75]

SEASON TOTALS

When SU has the ball:

KO- SU 32 OPP 15
P- SU 37 OPP 31
FG SU 8 OPP 3
XP SU 30 OPP 4
Total for kicking game: SU 107 OPP 53

1st rush- SU 94 OPP 121
1st pass- SU 48 OPP 50
First Down total: SU 142 OPP 171
2nd rush- SU 68 OPP 59
2nd pass- SU 49 OPP 48
Second Down total: SU 117 OPP 107
3rd run- SU 24 OPP 26
3rd pass- SU 32 OPP 68
Third Down total: SU 56 OPP 94
4th run- SU 6 OPP 2
4th pass-SU 1 OPP 2
Fourth Down total: SU 7 OPP 4
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 322 OPP 376

Penalties: SU 6 OPP 41
Turnovers: SU 0 OPP 20
Total for penalties and turnovers SU 6 OPP 61

Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 435 Opponent 490

When the opponent has the ball:

KO- SU 8 OPP 42
P- SU 22 OPP 42
FG SU 3 OPP 10
XP SU 0 OPP 34
Total for kicking game: SU 33 OPP 128

1st rush- SU 78 OPP 88
1st pass- SU 73 OPP 66
First Down total: Syracuse 151 Opposition 154
2nd rush- SU 55 OPP 76
2nd pass- SU 54 OPP 47
Second Down total: SU 109 OPP 123
3rd run- SU 28 OPP 21
3rd pass- SU 64 OPP 36
Third Down total: SU 92 OPP 57
4th run- SU 3 OPP 1
4th pass- SU 7 OPP 6
Fourth Down Total: SU10 OPP 7
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 362 OPP 341

Penalties: SU 24 OPP 20
Turnovers: SU 19 OPP 0
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 43 OPP 20

Total when Opposition had the ball: Syracuse 438 Opposition 489

Overall kicking game total: SU 140 OPP 181
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 681 OPP 719
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 49 OPP 81
Game Total: SU 870 OPP 981

Game Summaries:

Penn State: 28-67 when we had the ball, 47-47 when they had the ball: Total: 75-113
Northwestern: 58-43 when we had the ball, 33-71 when they had the ball: Total: 91-114
Wagner: 66-42 when we had the ball, 48-21 when they had the ball. Total: 114-63
Tulane: 56-37 when we had the ball, 51-39 when they had the ball. Total: 107-76
Clemson: 29-69 when we had the ball, 35-66 when they had the ball. Total: 64-136
North Carolina State: 43-40 when we had the ball, 68-45 when they had the ball. Total: 111-85
Georgia Tech: 26-40 when we had the ball, 20-73 when they had the ball. Total: 46-113
Wake Forest: 47-48 when we had the ball, 61-33 when they had the ball. Total: 108-81
Maryland: 38-53 when we had the ball, 54-35 when they had the ball. Total: 92-88
Florida State: 39-53 when we had the ball, 16-51 when they had the ball. Total: 55-104

Comment: We actually didn’t do badly on offense but most of that was against the reserves. The defense, so good against the teams we’ve beaten, was totally overmatched against Florida State.

 

[Lou_C]

This is cool. Do you follow any advanced metrics?

If not, you might be very interested in /+, which has picked up a lot of credence with hard core fans in terms of evaluating teams, especially compared with traditional stats like yards per game. The idea is to eliminate the anomalies in traditional measures by controlling for pace, quality of opponent, and garbage time when the game is out of hand. Like yours, it's largely based on success rate on each play and explosiveness. It's not perfect, but it's the best thing out there so far.

If you're into looking at things this way, it's pretty good stuff.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

 

[SWC75]

This is cool. Do you follow any advanced metrics?

If not, you might be very interested in /+, which has picked up a lot of credence with hard core fans in terms of evaluating teams, especially compared with traditional stats like yards per game. The idea is to eliminate the anomalies in traditional measures by controlling for pace, quality of opponent, and garbage time when the game is out of hand. Like yours, it's largely based on success rate on each play and explosiveness. It's not perfect, but it's the best thing out there so far.

If you're into looking at things this way, it's pretty good stuff.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

I do my own metrics which are not very advanced or very perfect. I like to keep it simple. Thanks.

 

[Van111]

I do my own metrics which are not very advanced or very perfect. I like to keep it simple. Thanks.

I have to say, attending both the Maryland and FSU games, our defensive scheme in the secondary set up the guys for failure. I counted on 6 occassions in Florida, considering there were only 45 offensive snaps by FSU, were we didn't have a DB covering a wideout. On two of these occassions, Winston simply didn't go to it, and once was actually sacked with a wide open receiver to his left. On the other 4, he went 3 times to this wide out for gains of 27+ yards and 1 TD. Frankly, as bad as the score was, FSU did nothing special at all. Almost evreything were quick screens to wideouts and have them make plays. After it was 28-0, they had us so spread out they were gashing us for long runs right up the middle. We took no chances and really never played any press coverage to even attempt to get Winston out of his comfort zone. It was pitch and catch to virtually wide open receivers for most of the day. Very much like the Georgia Tech game, we had the wrong coverages and spreads throughout the game. In the MD game, it could have been exposed as well, as MD continually dropped passes and the QB simply missed them on multiple occassions, so the game plan actaully looked better than it actually was. Yes we are way over matched talent wise and it showed against FSU, but you have to take some chances with your corners to get in the mind of the opposing teams QBs.

As for the offense. as much as I like what TH has been able to accomplish this year, we simply don't make downfield plays, and don't have a system in place to get the ball to our best athletes in space. They shut us down easily in the run department by having 7 in the box and an occassional blitzing CB or Safety. We had one opportunity down field to a wide open TE and it was thrown 10 yards over his head. Other than that, we never threw more than 15 yards down field in the game, and I think that was only on one other occassion. How can you go 6 conference games without a TD pass, and quite frankly, I don't even think we have been close to having one. Both the MD and Wake Games could have been loses if not for a steller perfomance by our defense.

In a nutshell, Coaching needs to look at the plays we are calling, and also bring some discipline to a team that is just racking up the penalties. Grading is one aspect for sure, but you have to have sound system in place with team discipline to carry it through in order to get better, both players and coaching.

 

[SWC75]

I have to say, attending both the Maryland and FSU games, our defensive scheme in the secondary set up the guys for failure. I counted on 6 occassions in Florida, considering there were only 45 offensive snaps by FSU, were we didn't have a DB covering a wideout. On two of these occassions, Winston simply didn't go to it, and once was actually sacked with a wide open receiver to his left. On the other 4, he went 3 times to this wide out for gains of 27+ yards and 1 TD. Frankly, as bad as the score was, FSU did nothing special at all. Almost evreything were quick screens to wideouts and have them make plays. After it was 28-0, they had us so spread out they were gashing us for long runs right up the middle. We took no chances and really never played any press coverage to even attempt to get Winston out of his comfort zone. It was pitch and catch to virtually wide open receivers for most of the day. Very much like the Georgia Tech game, we had the wrong coverages and spreads throughout the game. In the MD game, it could have been exposed as well, as MD continually dropped passes and the QB simply missed them on multiple occassions, so the game plan actaully looked better than it actually was. Yes we are way over matched talent wise and it showed against FSU, but you have to take some chances with your corners to get in the mind of the opposing teams QBs.

As for the offense. as much as I like what TH has been able to accomplish this year, we simply don't make downfield plays, and don't have a system in place to get the ball to our best athletes in space. They shut us down easily in the run department by having 7 in the box and an occassional blitzing CB or Safety. We had one opportunity down field to a wide open TE and it was thrown 10 yards over his head. Other than that, we never threw more than 15 yards down field in the game, and I think that was only on one other occassion. How can you go 6 conference games without a TD pass, and quite frankly, I don't even think we have been close to having one. Both the MD and Wake Games could have been loses if not for a steller perfomance by our defense.

In a nutshell, Coaching needs to look at the plays we are calling, and also bring some discipline to a team that is just racking up the penalties. Grading is one aspect for sure, but you have to have sound system in place with team discipline to carry it through in order to get better, both players and coaching.

I agree that Shaf coached not to lose, (by a lot) especially on defense and lost by a lot anyway. It's a disturbing trend. Could it have been any worse if we'd used press coverage? it was 0-59 after 3 quarters.