Winning Plays: Florida State

[SWC75]

THE SYSTEM: The offense wins a play if they get a third of the way to a first down on first down, half way to a first down on second down or gets a first down on third or fourth down. Otherwise the defense wins. Any score is a win for the team that scores. Any turnover is a win for the team that winds up with the ball. The kicking team wins a kick-off where the other team winds up with the ball from their own 25 in to their goal line: outside of that and the receiving team won. The kicking team wins any punt that produces a new +40 yard change in the line of scrimmage or forces the other team to begin from their 20 yard line in. Anny successful place kick is a win for the kicking team. I’ve put the yards to go in parenthesis if it’s other than 10 yards. Penalties are simply tacked onto the play before the play is evaluated if they didn’t nullify it. If the penalty did nullify the play or was a dead ball foul, it’s listed separately.

FLORIDA STATE game

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO- FS 30, FS 35, FS 25, FS 18, FS 25 SU 3 FS 2
P- 47 to FS 6, 60 to FS 21 (the other was a fumble, see below) SU 2 FS 0
FG- GOOD from 21, GOOD from 32 SU 2 FS 0
XP- GOOD, GOOD SU 2 FS 0
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 9 Florida State 2

1st rush- 7, 3, 1, 2, 3, 6, 6, 3, 2, 6, 11, 6, -1, 5, 0, 5, 9, 12 SU 10 FS8
1st pass- I, I, 8, 41, 9, 6, 7, 5, I SU 6 FS 3
First Down total: Syracuse 16 Florida State 11
2nd rush- 3(3), -1, 1, 16(4), -2, 4, 5(2), -2, 35, 0, 4(3) SU 6 FS 5
2nd pass- 12, 15(9), 12(8), I, I, I, I, 5(11), 5, I, -3, 35TD, I SU 5 FS 8
Second Down total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 13
3rd run- 7(6), 0 SU 1 FS 1
3rd pass- 7(6), 36(6), I, 5*(8), I, I, 22TD, O, 6(5), 17(7), 5(5) SU 6 FS 5
Third Down total: Syracuse 7 Florida State 6
4th run- none
4th pass- I SU 0 FS 1
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 0 Florida State 1
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Florida State 31
Running plays: Syracuse 17 Florida State 14
Passing plays: Syracuse 17 Florida State 17

Penalties (not added on to play): SU 5, 5, 5 FS 5 SU 1 FS 3
Turnovers: 3 interceptions SU 0 FS 3
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 1 Florida State 6

Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 44 Florida State 39

When Florida State had the ball:

KO- SU 25, SU 20, SU 29, SU 25, SU 25, SU 34, SU 23 SU 2 FS 5
P- 44 to SU 31, 48 to SU 12 SU 0 FS 2
FG- GOOD from 34 SU 0 FG 1
XP- GOOD, GOOD, GOOD ,GOOD, GOOD SU 0 FG 5
Total for kicking game:

1st rush-5, 12td, 2, 4, 12, 51, 1(4), 11, 4, 0, 14, 3, 1, 5, 4(12), 1, 7td, 1, 7td, 4, 23, 1, 2 SU 9 FS 13
1st pass- 9, 9, 14, 8, I, 9, 13, I, 8, 21td, 13, 10, 4, 34, -3, I SU 4 FS 12
First Down total: Syracuse 13 Florida State 25
2nd rush- 2(13), 4(2), -1, 1(1), 5(6), 4(8), 3(13), 23, 3(9), -1 SU 5 FS 5
2nd pass- 6(1), 0, 11(11), I, 15, 44(9), 4td, 8(2), 4, I, 7td, 2(5), 9(9), -15 SU 5 FS 9
Second Down total: Syracuse 10 Florida State 14
3rd run- 3(1), 9(7), 4(14) SU 1 FS 2
3rd pass- I, I, 18, I, 20, 3(21), 6(6) SU 3 FS 4
Third Down total: Syracuse 4 Florida State 6
4th run- none
4th pass- none
Fourth Down total: none
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 Florida State 45
Running plays: Syracuse 15 Florida State 20
Passing plays: Syracuse 12 Florida State 25

Penalties (not added on to play): SU 12, 7, 15, 15 FS 5, 5, 10, 5, 5 SU 5 FS 4
Turnovers: 2 fumbles SU 2 FS 0
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 7 Florida State 4

Total when Florida State had the ball: Syracuse 36 Florida State 62

Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 11 Florida State 15
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 61 Florida State 76
Running plays: Syracuse 32 Florida State 34
Passing plays: Syracuse 29 Florida State 42
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 8 Florida State 10
Game Total: Syracuse 80 Florida State 101

COMMENTS: Third down conversions are always a big statistic. Syracuse actually did OK with 7 of 14. Florida State did better with 6 of 10. But the second number is as important as the first. Florida State got 29 first downs to our 20. Both teams had 11 possessions so Florida State had 40 first down plays and got a first down (23) or a touchdown (5) twenty-eight times before they ever got to third down. We had 31 first down plays and got a first down (13) and or a touchdown (2) eighteen times before we had to attempt a third down conversation.

We’ve played two top ten teams with Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback, (Notre Dame and Florida State, who will be playing in the big game of next week). In both games we played “keep them in front of you” defense and it worked, to an extent. We gave up only one long touchdown pass and held our big boy opponents to 31 and 38 points, not insubstantial totals but not insurmountable totals on modern football,. If we’d been more offensively efficient, we might have thrown a scare into either team. But in those two games, Everett Golson and Jameis Winston completed 62 of 75 passes, (83%) for 679 yards and 7 touchdowns. The question is: do we regard that as a disappointing defensive performance or is it simply the cost of doing business when you spend the game in what amounts to a “prevent” defense?

In our four straight losses we have averaged 422.5 yards per game on offense and forced 11 turnovers. It’s amazing we could find a way to lose all four games. We’ve been out-scored in those games 61-131, an average of 15-33. That’s not good but it’s much better than our losses last year to Northwestern, (27-48 but 7-34 at the half), Clemson (14-49), Georgia Tech (0-56) and Florida State (3-59). The losing is frustrating but we seem to be getting better, judging from the margins of defeat.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR YEAR

When SU had the ball:

KO- SU 15 OPP 13
P- SU 20 OPP 8
FG- SU 10 OPP 4
XP- SU 12 OPP 2
Total for kicking game: SU 57 OPP 27

1st rush- SU 69 OPP 56
1st pass- SU 24 OPP 33
First Down total: SU 93 OPP 89
2nd rush- SU 35 OPP 23
2nd pass- SU 32 OPP 42
Second Down total: SU 67 OPP 65
3rd run- SU 12 OPP 14
3rd pass- SU 20 OPP 39
Third Down total: SU 32 OPP 53
4th run- SU 3 OPP 1
4th pass-SU 2 OPP 3
Fourth Down total: SU 5 OPP 4
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 197 OPP 211
Running plays: SU 119 OPP 94
Passing plays: SU 78 OPP 117

Penalties (not added onto play): SU 11 OPP 24 (penalties by the other team that each team benefited by)
Turnovers (by SU): SU 0 OPP 8
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 11 OPP 32

Total when Syracuse had the ball: SU 265 OPP 270

When the Opposition had the Ball:

KO- SU 6 OPP 26
P- SU 7 OPP 20
FG- SU 2 OPP 8
XP- SU 1 OPP 17
Total for kicking game: SU 16 OPP 71

1st rush- SU 59 OPP 59
1st pass- SU 30 OPP 49
First Down total: SU 89 OPP 108
2nd rush- SU 29 OPP 43
2nd pass- SU 30 OPP 38
Second Down total: SU 59 OPP 81
3rd run- SU 8 OPP 24
3rd pass- SU 32 OPP 18
Third Down total: SU 40 OPP 42
4th run- SU 0 OPP 1
4th pass-SU 1 OPP 1
Fourth Down total: SU 1 OPP 2
Total for plays from scrimmage: SU 189 OPP 233
Running plays: SU 96 OPP 127
Passing plays: SU 93 OPP 106

Penalties (not added on to play): SU 26 OPP 15 (penalties by the other team that each team benefited by)
Turnovers: SU (got) 11 SU 11 OPP 0
Total for penalties and turnovers: SU 37 OPP 15

Total when the opposition had the ball: SU 242 OPP 319

Overall kicking game total: SU 73 OPP 98
Overall plays from scrimmage total: SU 386 OPP 444
Running plays: SU 183 OPP 187
Passing plays: SU 142 OPP 181
Overall penalties and turnovers: SU 48 OPP 47
Game Total: Syracuse 509 Opposition 589

Comments: I think the way to look at this is not as a percentage, (We have been successful in 509 of 1098 plays: 46.4%. But to view the difference as if the other team was running extra plays we didn’t get to run that were successful. The opposition has had 25 more successful kicking plays than we have: 6 more successful running plays and 52 more successful passing plays. We are +1 in turnovers and penalties, (not tacked onto the play). That’s really quite a difference.

SEASON SUMMARY

VILLANOVA SU scrimmage: 29-36 VIL scrimmage: 40-46 Kicking: 17-11 PEN/TO: 5-10 Total: 91-103
C. MICHIGAN SU scrimmage: 41-36 CM scrimmage: 36-22 Kicking: 14-13 PEN/TO: 8-5 Total: 99-76
MARYLAND SU scrimmage: 41-34 MD scrimmage: 30-27 Kicking: 14-21 PEN/TO: 6-9 Total: 91-91
NOTRE DAME SU scrimmage: 29-37 ND scrimmage: 22-51 Kicking: 8-18 PEN/TO: 12-8 Total: 71-114
LOUISVILLE SU scrimmage: 23-37 LOU scrimmage: 30-37 Kicking: 9-21 PEN/TO: 9-5 Total: 71-100
FLORIDA STATE SU scrimmage: 34-31 FS scrimmage: 27-45 Kicking: 11-15 PEN/TO: 8-10 Total: 80-101

I noted that against Lousiville, both teams had 14 possessions and we had a combined 1,025 yards to go to score vs. 871 for Louisville. That to me was 154 yards of “hidden offense” the Cardinals didn’t have to generate to score. I decided to keep track of that stat for all the games this season:

Syracuse 9 possessions with 714 yards to go(average 79) Villanova 9/706 (78). +8 hidden yards for Villanova
Syracuse 11/746 (68) Central Michigan 11/865 (79) +119 hidden yards for Syracuse
Syracuse 13/1072 (82) Maryland 14/903 (64.5) +169 hidden yards for Maryland
Syracuse 12/909 (76) Notre Dame 13/930 (72) +21 hidden yards for Syracuse but +4 per possession for Notre Dame
Syracuse 14/1025 (73) Louisville 14/871 (62) +154 hidden yards for Louisville
Syracuse 11/711 (65) Florida State 11/748 (68) +37 hidden yards for Syracuse

Overall, we’ve had 70 possessions with a total of 5,177 yards to go, an average of 74. The ooopstio0n has had 72 possessions with a total of 5,023 yards to go, an average of 70. The difference is exactly what it was in the Louisville game- +154 yards the opposition didn’t have to gain to score. In the three games where there was a significant difference, the team with the big advantage won all three games by an average of 24 points. It may not be the only reason they won or won by that margin, but I’m sure it helped.

I’ve also been comparing the number of plays run from scrimmage to time of possession. (I realize that TOP includes plays that weren’t runs and passes from scrimmage but I’m assuming the time of such plays will be about equal for both teams). The Daily Orange preview handed out before the Villanova game says the goal of both offensive coordinator George MacDonald and quarterback coach Tim Lester was to get off plays in an average of 18 seconds and to get off 3.33 plays per minute. In 2013 SDyracuse got off 2.42 plays per minute. The fastest team in the country was Texas Tech at 3.08 plays per minute, (there was no quote on seconds per play).

Syracuse 69 plays in 22:12, Villanova 87 plays in 37:48
That means that we got off a play every 19.30 seconds and 3.11 plays per minute. Villanova got off a play 26.1 seconds and 2.30 plays per minute. But they got off 18 more plays than we did.

Syracuse 79 plays in 33:22, Central Michigan 68 plays in 26:18
We: 25.34 seconds/play and 2.37 plays per minute. They: 23.21 seconds/play and 2.55 plays per minute. But we got off 11 more plays.

Syracuse 79 plays in 32:14, Maryland 58 plays in 27:46
We: 24.48 seconds/play and 2.45 plays per minute. They: 28.72 seconds/ play and 2.09 plays per minute.

Syracuse 68 plays in 26:43, Notre Dame 80 plays in 33:17
We: 23.57 seconds/play and 2.55 plays per minute. They: 24.96 seconds/play and 2.40 plays per minute. But they got off 12 more plays.

Syracuse: 62 plays in 23:02, Louisville 70 plays in 36:58
We: 22.29 seconds/play and 2.69 plays per minute. They: 31.69 seconds/play and 1.89 plays per minute. But they got off 8 more plays.

Syracuse: 67 plays in 23:33, Florida State 72 plays in 36:27
We: 21.09 seconds/play and 2.85 plays per minute. They: 30.38 seconds per play and 1.98 plays per minute. But they got off five more plays.

Total: Syracuse 424 plays in 161:06, Opposition: 435 plays in 198:54
We: 22.79 seconds/play and 2.85 plays per minute. They: 27.43 seconds per play and 2.19 plays per minute.

It may be that MacDonald and Lester were eliminating the time taken on kicking plays, (which is included in time of possession), so we might be closer to our goals than it appears. But it’s clear that the speed with which you get plays off does little to determine whether you wi9n the game. It doesn’t even determine which team gets off more plays. What matters is how many successful plays you run and how many first downs you get. You aren’t going to wear teams out by hurriedly running plays that don’t work.

 

[Crusty]

"The question is: do we regard that as a disappointing defensive performance or is it simply the cost of doing business when you spend the game in what amounts to a “prevent” defense? "

It is the YAC that was terrible. We need to learn how to tackle.

 

[SWC75]

"The question is: do we regard that as a disappointing defensive performance or is it simply the cost of doing business when you spend the game in what amounts to a “prevent” defense? "

It is the YAC that was terrible. We need to learn how to tackle.

Yaks can be terrible.

 

[kcsu]

Of the chart as usual i really appreciate all of the work that you put into these post. Thank you.