Winning Plays - Holy Cross

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 8, SU 21, SU 29, SU 25, SU 28, SU 46, 50, SU 26, SU 22m HC 20, HC 36, SU 40, HC 28, SU 13 = 524/14 = SY 37 – 876 yards to go, 196 less than Holy Cross.

KO: HC 25, HC 36, HC 25, HC 25, HC 25, HC 25, HC 25
Total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 1
P: 47 to HC 26, 46 to HC 2
Total: Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 0
FG: Blocked, No Good from 45, No Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 3
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Holy Cross 4

1r: 10, 2, 2, -1, 8, 3, 8, 8, 7, 9, 12(25), 17, 3, -1, 5(6), 6, -1, 1, 4, 11, 1
Total: Syracuse 13 Holy Cross 8
1p: 40, I, 16, 26, I, 9, 38TD, I, I, -7(s), I, p 4TD, INT, I, I, 16, 8, I, 30, 12, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Holy Cross 11
First Down Total: Syracuse 24 Holy Cross 19
2r: 4(1), 7(7), -2, 6, (7)2, 3(1), 1(2), 1TD, 19(4), -1, 4(9)
Total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 5
2p: 9(8), I, 7, I, I, 23TD, 11, 3(3), I, I, 4, 24, I, 23, I, 16, I, -7(s), I, -10(s)
Total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 12
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Holy Cross 17
3r: 6(17), 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 1
3p: 11(8), 5(3), 7TD, 6(2), I, -10(s), 13(6), 12, INT, -1, I, I, -9(3), 12(5), 19(16)
Total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Holy Cross 8
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
4p: 4(4)
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Holy Cross 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 Holy Cross 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 48 Holy Cross 45

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, +8 Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 63 Holy Cross 51

Big Plays: 40 pass, 26 pass, 23 pass TD, 38 pass TD, 24 pass, 30 pass, 23 pass, Pick 6 (8)

Comments: For various reasons, (kick-offs, punts, turnovers and SU drives), we had a huge difference in starting drive position, +14 per possession and a total of 196 fewer yards we had to negotiate for the game.

We were 21-14 in plays where we had the ball through our third possession, 42-37 after that. We were certainly productive but never dominant: 13-8 on first down runs, 11-11 on first down passes, 6-5 on second down runs, 8-12 on second down passes, 1-1 on third down runs, 8-7 on third down passes, 1-1 on fourth down. The Crusaders were eye-to-eye with us on every play and they didn’t blink.

We had 8 big plays to their 5 and 7 of ours were passes. The other was the Pick 6, They had two interceptions and a blocked kick. Those two TD passes in the second quarter were their only plays from scrimmage of over 20 yards.

We complain about our special teams but, really, it’s about place kicking. Our kick-offs and punts are excellent. Our return game is OK. We haven’t blocked a kick yet but that’s more the lack of a plus than a deficit. If we can fix the place kicking, we’ll be OK here.


When Holy Cross had the ball:

Drive Starts: HC 25, HC 36, HC 25, HC 26, HC 2, HC 25, HC 8, HC 20, HC 27, HC 25, HC 23, HC 25, HC 36 = 328/14 = HC 23 with 1,072 yards to go, 196 more than Syracuse.

KO: SU 25, SU 28, SU 26
Total: Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 1
P: 63 to SU 8(p), 35 to SU 21, 39 to SU 29, 53 to SU 46, 21 to 50, 51 to SU 22, 7 to 20, 34 to SU 40, 9 to HC 28(p), 37 to SU 13
Total: Syracuse 6 Holy Cross 4
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Holy Cross 7

1r: 4, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3(15), -1, 1, -4, 1, 1, 1
Total: Syracuse 11 Holy Cross 1
1p: 8, 63TD, I, 11, -1. 6, 5
Total: Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Holy Cross 6
2r: 1(9), 4(2), 5
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 2
2p: I, 2(9), I, I, 27TD, I, I, 2(19), 7(9), -5(s), -9(s), I, 4(9), -6(s)
Total: Syracuse 12 Holy Cross 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Holy Cross 4
3r: 5(7), 11(8), -1, 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Holy Cross 1
3p: I, I, 19(9), I, 7(9), I, 7(16), INT-TD, -7(s), I
Total: Syracuse 9 Holy Cross 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Holy Cross 2
4r: 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Holy Cross 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Holy Cross 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Holy Cross 4
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Holy Cross 8
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 39 Holy Cross 12

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5 Syracuse 2 Holy Cross 1

Game total when Holy Cross had the ball: Syracuse 49 Holy Cross 20

Big Plays: 63TD, 27TD, INT, INT, Blocked kick (5)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71

Comments: What is dominance? We were 11-1 against their first down runs, 12-2 against their second down passes and 9-1 against their third down passes. Actually, that’s not dominance. It’s strangulation. We think of our defense in this game and remember those two blown coverages in the second period. But Holy Cross didn’t do anything the entire rest of the game, which allowed us to overcome our sputtering offense the last three quarters and pull away to a decisive win anyway. And then the defense put it away with a Pick 6!

Football shorthand: When you kick off 7 times and they kicked off 3 times, that means you won. When you punt twice and they punt 10 times, that means pretty much the same thing. When 6 of heir 10 punts wound up in your favor, that’s in your favor, too. ‘Winning’ the other team’s kicks makes victory highly likely.

This was a +41 game, (112-71). Here are the five closest games to this one since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era:
2018 Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36 SU won 30-7
2018 Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41 SU won 54-23
2018 Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 = +37 SU won 34-18
2019 Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43 SU won 41-3
2022 Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37 SU won 48-14

So Syracuse was +35 in this game and won 42-14. What’s the problem?

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = SU30/839, 524/14 = SU 37/876 TOTAL: 1,406/46 =S31 with 3,194 yards to go (348 less than the opposition – in two fewer possessions).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 = 22-2
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 = 11-2
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 = 3-4
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 = 18-0
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 = 54-8

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 = 30-31
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 = 40-35
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 = 70-66
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 = 19-17
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 = 34-28
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 = 53-45
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 4-4
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 = 27-25
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 = 31-29
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 3-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 4-1

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 = 56-52
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31= 102-89
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 = 158-141

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 = 1-9

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 = 213-158

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 = 27

Comments: We are a good passing team that has had trouble sustaining a running attack. But we haven’t really tried to, except at the end of the GT game: this is a pass-first team. The number of negative passing plays increases as opposing teams realize that’s the only thing we’re really good at.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072 TOTAL= 1,158/47 =O25 with 3,542 yards to go, 348 more than SU in 2 more possessions.

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 = 2-17
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 = 7-13
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 = 1-7
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 = 0-10
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 = 10-47

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 = 33-27
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 = 24-29
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 = 57-56
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 = 11-23
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 = 27-22
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 = 38-45
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 = 7-8
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 = 25-12
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 = 32-20
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 = 2-4

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 = 53-59
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 = 76-66
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 = 129-125

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1= 7-12

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 = 146-184

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 = 20

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 = 359-342

Comments: We are 3-1 but we are blade-running. We need to improve to be a truly strong team.

Our opponents this year have attempted 8 field goals. They’ve made 7, (thank you, Georgia Tech), but keeping the other team out of the end zone has allowed us to go 3-1 while we struggle through these games.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Ohio University 80-93 = -13
Georgia Tech 90-87 = +3
Stanford 77-91 = -14
Holy Cross 112-71 = +41
TOTAL: Syracuse: 359 Opponents 342 = +17
We have won 51.2% of the 701 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%) and 50% of the 4 games, based on winning plays, (Dino won 39.8%), The our team has achieved their goals on 17 more plays than we have, 4.25 per game. Take a picture of it: we’re ahead in the Fran Brown Era. Dino was behind for 8 years.