Winning Plays -MTS

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:


- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.

- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.

- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.

- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .

- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.

- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.

- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.

- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.

- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.

- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.

- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (sicne it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.


When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: MT 25, SU 35, MT 25, MT 21, MTS 25, MT 25
Total: Syracuse 5 Middle Tennessee 1
P: 58(p) to MT 37, SU Safety, 43 to MT 16, 39 to MT 14, 43 to MT 31
Total: Syracuse 4 Middle Tennessee 1
FG: 25 Good, 22 Good, 40 Good, 40 No Good
Total: Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Middle Tennessee 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Middle Tennessee 3

1r: 4, 3, -2, 3, 12, 2, 25(P), 4, 3, -2, 4(15), 0, 1, 4, 4, 15, 2, 6, 1, 3, 1(5), 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Middle Tennessee 14
1p: 4, -1, 13, 7, -3, 13, -2, -2(S), I, I, 4, 9, 7, 6, 11, INT
Total: Syracuse 9 Middle Tennessee 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 Middle Tennessee 21
2r: 2(3), 2(11), 6(7), 6(9), 5(12), 1(6), -2, 0
Total: Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 5
2p: I, I, I, I, 4(6), 16(12), 9(11), I, I, 2, -6(S), 9, 7(6), I, 0, I, 15(9)
Total: Syracuse 8 Middle Tennessee 12
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Middle Tennessee 17
3r: 5(16), 8(1), 0, 9(8), 3(12), 2(1), 7(3), 29TD, 4(4), 0
Total: Syracuse 6 Middle Tennessee 4
3p: -9(S), -6(S), I, -14(S), 26(P)(3), I, 9(3), I, I, 9, -5(S)
Total: Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Middle Tennessee 12
4r: 1TD, 2(1), 6(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 0
4p: I, 14(15)
Total: Syracuse 0 Middle Tennessee 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Middle Tennessee 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 20 Middle Tennessee 29
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Middle Tennessee 52

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, +5, +15, +15 Syracuse 3 Middle Tennessee 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 57 Middle Tennessee 57

Comments: We continue to have trouble running the football against teams that are below the level of the ACC teams we will be facing. 4 of our 22 first down runs went for 5 yards or more. Overall, we had three plays that got us +20 yards or more. They were all runs and two of them got that far because of tacked on penalties. Our longest pass play was our last, when we got 14 yards on 4th and 15. Our 11 third down plays produced four sacks and four incompletions. Our 14-3 lead in the kicking game is misleading as it includes a safety and a fumbled punt that led to a touchdown as well as a missed 40 yards field goal. That’s 12 points in a game that was lost by 7.


When Middle Tennessee had the ball:

KO: SU 48, SU 23, SU 47, SU 25, SU 20
Total: Syracuse 2 Middle Tennessee 3
P: 37 to SU 10, 42 to SU 42, 44 to SU 25, 38 to MT 44, 48 to SU 9, SU FUM, 32 to 40
Total: Syracuse 2 Middle Tennessee 5
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Middle Tennessee 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Middle Tennessee 4
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Middle Tennessee 12

1r: 1, 2, 3, -1, 12, 14TD, 9, 10, 20, 2, -4, 0, 10, 9, -2, 3, 1, 3, -6V
Total: Syracuse 11 Middle Tennessee 8
1p: I, -1(S), 8, I, FUM, 6, I, 28, 5, I, I, 9, 0
Total: Syracuse 8 Middle Tennessee 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Middle Tennessee 13
2r: FUM, 1, 1(5), -1, -2, 11(1), 8(1), 4(7), 1(9), 5(7)
Total: Syracuse 6 Middle Tennessee 4
2p: 15, 11(90, I, 16(11), 3(7), INT, 5, 26(15), I, 4(8), 1(14), I, 48TD, 29(12)
Total: Syracuse 6 Middle Tennessee 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Middle Tennessee 12
3r: -3, -1, -1
Total: Syracuse3 Middle Tennessee 0
3p: I, I, I, I, 8(13), 28TD, 12(3), 10TD, -4
Total: Syracuse 6 Middle Tennessee 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Middle Tennessee 3
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Middle Tennessee 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 Middle Tennessee 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Middle Tennessee 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Middle Tennessee 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 Middle Tennessee 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 41 Middle Tennessee 28

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10, -5, +15 Syracuse 2 Middle Tennessee 1

Game total when Middle Tennessee had the ball: Syracuse 47 Middle Tennessee 41

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98

Comments: Our defense played well overall but was inconsistent. MTS’s first four first down runs totaled 5 yards. Their next four first down runs netted 65 yards and a TD. The next three netted -2 yards. Their first four second down passes produced 42 yards and three first downs. The next eight produced 39 yards, 1 first down and an interception. The next two produced 77 yards and a score. Their first five third down passes were incomplete. Their next four were completed for 58 yards, a first down and 2 touchdowns.

I’m going to start recording the difference in the game totals. This was a +6 game. Here’s the closest performances to this one:
2011 Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4 Syracuse lost 16-19 in OT
2013 Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4 Syracuse won 20-3
2017 Syracuse 103 Middle Tennessee 99 = +4 Syracuse lost 23-30

In a close game it’s not about how much. It’s about when.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 8-2 + 5-1 = 13-3
P: 3-0 + 4-1 = 7-1
FG: 3-1 + 3-1 = 6-2
XP: 5-1 + 2-0 = 7-1
Kicking plays total: 19-4 + 14-3 = 33-7

1r: 11-11 + 8-14 = 19-25
1p: 17-6 + 9-7 = 26-13
First Down Total: 28-17 + 17-21 = 45-38
2r: 6-5 + 3-5 = 9-10
2p: 7-9 + 8-12 = 15-21
Second Down Total: 13-14 + 11-17 = 24-31
3r: 3-3 + 6-4 = 9-7
3p: 8-5 + 3-8 = 11-13
Third Down Total: 11-8 + 9-12 = 20-20
4r: 0-0 + 3-0 = 3-0
4p: 1-0 + 0-2 = 1-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 3-2 = 4-2

Total on running plays: 20-19 + 20-23 = 40-42
Total on passing plays: 33-20 + 20-29 = 53-49
Total on plays from scrimmage: 53-39 + 40-52 = 93-91

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 3-2 = 6-4

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 75-45 + 57-57 = 132-102

Comment: The inability to run the ball, especially on first down, (19-25) is disappointing at this point. Down the road, it’s going to kill us. Our second down passing (15-21) has also been poor. The overall success in the kicking game has masked some damaging errors.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 2-0 + 2-3 = 4-3
P: 9-3 + 2-5 = 11-8
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
XP: 0-1 + 0-4 = 0-5
Kicking plays total: 11-4 + 4-12 = 15-16

1r: 8-4 + 11-8 = 19-12
1p: 7-2 + 8-5 = 15-7
First Down Total: 15-6 + 19-13 = 34-19
2r: 6-3 + 6-4 = 12-7
2p: 7-3 + 6-8 = 13-11
Second Down Total: 13-6 + 12-12 = 25-18
3r: 7-0 + 3-0 = 10-0
3p: 8-1 + 6-3 = 14-4
Third Down Total: 15-1 + 9-3 = 24-4
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
4p: 0-1 + 1-0 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-0 = 1-1

Total on running plays: 21-7 + 20-12 = 41-19
Total on passing plays: 22-7 + 21-16 = 43-23
Total on plays from scrimmage: 43-14 + 41-28 = 84-42

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 3-2 + 2-1 = 5-3

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 57-20 + 47-41= 104-61

Overall Game Total: 236-163

Comment: Our numbers are excellent on defense because we were consistently great vs. CCS and occasionally good vs. MTS. It was when we occasionally bad that left us at 1-1.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 USC 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = -6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 USC 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 - 38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = 22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = -9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
TOTAL: Syracuse 236 Opponents 163 = +73 We’ve ‘won’ 2 of 2 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,716 plays, (48.3%) and 27 games, (36.0%). The opposition has won 7,203 plays and 46 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 487 more plays than we have in 75 games, an average of 6.5 plays a game.