SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 24, SU 44, SU 17, SU 25, SU 27, NCS 38, SU 25, NCS 44 = 309/9 = SU 34 with 595 to go, 22 less than they did in one more possession.
KO: NCS 5, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 32, NCS 25
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
P: 39 to NCS 20
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
FG: Good from 32, No Good from 43
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 NC State 2
1r: 2, 3, 4, 2, 0, 5, 13, 5, 1, 4, -2, 2(6), -1, 3, 1, 2, 21, 4, -3, 4
Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 12
1p: 6, I, 28, 6, I, I, 18, I, 8, 20, 24, 10, 7
Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 NC State 16
2r: 2(8), 4, 2(2), 4TD, -3, -3, 0, 1
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 5
2p: I, 8, I, I, 9(8), 13, I, 4(5), 14(4), 27(11), 16(6), 9, -6(5), 15(12), 3, 12(2), I
Total: Syracuse 10 NC State 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 NC State 12
3r: 2(1), -1v
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 0
3p: 4(4), 3(2), 19(6), 10(7), I, I, -12(8), 28TD, 9(16), 6(8), 7(6), 10(6), 6(13)
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 6
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: I, 2TD, 5(7)
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 NC State 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 NC State 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 41 NC State 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, +7 Syracuse 2 NC State 3
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 52 NC State 40
Big Plays: 28 pass, 27 pass, fumble recovery, 28 pass TD, 20 pass, 24 pass, fumble recovery, interception, 21 run, getting onsides kick (10)
Comments: Our one ‘losing kickoff’, (NCS 32), was really a good play: the one where Brady Denaburg laid out the guy who had the temerity to return his kick. Getting a punt off was a step forward but only having to punt once was even better.
We had 20 running plays that gained less than 3 yards. Yasim Willis, who I think will be playing on Sunday someday, had three straight 3 yard losses. I know we want to focus on the pass but shouldn’t the passing game open up the running game? And it was Coach Brown who said that “big guys dominate little guys. So he got some big guys. Why aren’t they dominating?
Fortunately, we had 10 big plays, including 3 takeovers and were 11-7 on third and fourth downs. That’s winning football.
When NC State had the ball:
Drive Starts: NCS 25, NCS 19, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 32, NCS 25, NCS 7 = 183/8 = NCS 23 with 617 yards to go, 22 more than we did in one less possession.
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, Failed On-sides kick.
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 3
P: 39 to SU 44
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
FG: No Good from 41, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 NC State 6
1r: 5, 3, Fumble, 9, 4(9), 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 5, 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 4
1p: I, 13, I, 11, 6(5), 21, 42, 4, 14TD, 2m Interception, 72, I, 13(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 NC State 13
2r: 5, 3, 2(1), 4(6), 8(8), 28(7), 10
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 5
2p: 0, Fumble, 9(8), I, 75TD, -9(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 9
3r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
3p: 16(5), I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: 25(12)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 NC State 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 NC State 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 21 NC State 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +5, +5, +15, -5, -5, +5 Syracuse 3 NC State 5
Game total when NC State had the ball: Syracuse 27 NC State 35
Big Plays: 21pass, 42pass, 28 run, 25 pass, 75 pass TD, 72 pass (6)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 NC State 80
Comments: Of course, they only punted once, too. But that was because they had three turnovers.
Like Georgia Tech, the Pack missed a field goal in the first half that made a big difference at the end of the game. Also, both teams were down by 17 in the fourth quarter and turned it into one-possession games.
Stuffing their first down runs, (9-4) is a big thing to do, although we were less successful on second down, (1-5)
It was a comfortable win except for a blown coverage on the 75 yarder, (the controversy over the stepping out of bound obscures the fact that we blew it), and a the 72 yard play with the four missed tackles, right down the middle of the field. Despite those, our strategy of “keeping them in front oof us” seems to be working – if that’s what we do.
It was our second straight +4 game, (79-75). Here are the closest games to this since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era:
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 SU lost 23-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 SU won 37-20
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 SU lost 22-31
2023 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78 = +4 SU won 35-31
2024 Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3 SU won 31-28
It was a Georgia Tech type game.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 24, SU 44, SU 17, SU 25, SU 27, NCS 38, SU 25, NCS 44 = 309/9 = SU 34 with 595 to go, 22 less than they did in one more possession.
KO: NCS 5, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 32, NCS 25
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
P: 39 to NCS 20
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
FG: Good from 32, No Good from 43
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 9 NC State 2
1r: 2, 3, 4, 2, 0, 5, 13, 5, 1, 4, -2, 2(6), -1, 3, 1, 2, 21, 4, -3, 4
Total: Syracuse 8 NC State 12
1p: 6, I, 28, 6, I, I, 18, I, 8, 20, 24, 10, 7
Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 NC State 16
2r: 2(8), 4, 2(2), 4TD, -3, -3, 0, 1
Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 5
2p: I, 8, I, I, 9(8), 13, I, 4(5), 14(4), 27(11), 16(6), 9, -6(5), 15(12), 3, 12(2), I
Total: Syracuse 10 NC State 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 NC State 12
3r: 2(1), -1v
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 0
3p: 4(4), 3(2), 19(6), 10(7), I, I, -12(8), 28TD, 9(16), 6(8), 7(6), 10(6), 6(13)
Total: Syracuse 7 NC State 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 6
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: I, 2TD, 5(7)
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 NC State 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 NC State 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 41 NC State 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +15, -5, +7 Syracuse 2 NC State 3
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 52 NC State 40
Big Plays: 28 pass, 27 pass, fumble recovery, 28 pass TD, 20 pass, 24 pass, fumble recovery, interception, 21 run, getting onsides kick (10)
Comments: Our one ‘losing kickoff’, (NCS 32), was really a good play: the one where Brady Denaburg laid out the guy who had the temerity to return his kick. Getting a punt off was a step forward but only having to punt once was even better.
We had 20 running plays that gained less than 3 yards. Yasim Willis, who I think will be playing on Sunday someday, had three straight 3 yard losses. I know we want to focus on the pass but shouldn’t the passing game open up the running game? And it was Coach Brown who said that “big guys dominate little guys. So he got some big guys. Why aren’t they dominating?
Fortunately, we had 10 big plays, including 3 takeovers and were 11-7 on third and fourth downs. That’s winning football.
When NC State had the ball:
Drive Starts: NCS 25, NCS 19, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 32, NCS 25, NCS 7 = 183/8 = NCS 23 with 617 yards to go, 22 more than we did in one less possession.
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, Failed On-sides kick.
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 3
P: 39 to SU 44
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 0
FG: No Good from 41, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 NC State 6
1r: 5, 3, Fumble, 9, 4(9), 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 5, 0, 0
Total: Syracuse 9 NC State 4
1p: I, 13, I, 11, 6(5), 21, 42, 4, 14TD, 2m Interception, 72, I, 13(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 NC State 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 NC State 13
2r: 5, 3, 2(1), 4(6), 8(8), 28(7), 10
Total: Syracuse 1 NC State 5
2p: 0, Fumble, 9(8), I, 75TD, -9(s)
Total: Syracuse 2 NC State 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 NC State 9
3r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
3p: 16(5), I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 NC State 1
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 0
4p: 25(12)
Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 NC State 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 NC State 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 11 NC State 15
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 21 NC State 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +5, +5, +15, -5, -5, +5 Syracuse 3 NC State 5
Game total when NC State had the ball: Syracuse 27 NC State 35
Big Plays: 21pass, 42pass, 28 run, 25 pass, 75 pass TD, 72 pass (6)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 79 NC State 80
Comments: Of course, they only punted once, too. But that was because they had three turnovers.
Like Georgia Tech, the Pack missed a field goal in the first half that made a big difference at the end of the game. Also, both teams were down by 17 in the fourth quarter and turned it into one-possession games.
Stuffing their first down runs, (9-4) is a big thing to do, although we were less successful on second down, (1-5)
It was a comfortable win except for a blown coverage on the 75 yarder, (the controversy over the stepping out of bound obscures the fact that we blew it), and a the 72 yard play with the four missed tackles, right down the middle of the field. Despite those, our strategy of “keeping them in front oof us” seems to be working – if that’s what we do.
It was our second straight +4 game, (79-75). Here are the closest games to this since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era:
2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 SU lost 23-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 SU won 37-20
2023 Syracuse 76 Georgia Tech 73 = +3 SU lost 22-31
2023 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 78 = +4 SU won 35-31
2024 Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3 SU won 31-28
It was a Georgia Tech type game.
