SWC75
Bored Historian
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
The Ohio U. game
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S23, S25, S18, S25, S24, S25, S33, S32, S24, S35, S20 = 284/11 = S26 with 816 yards to go.
KO: O25, O25, O25, O25, O25, O19, O25
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 0
P: 45 to O26, 49 to O25, 52 to O7
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio U. 0
FG: Good from 26
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 16 Ohio U. 0
1r: 3, 6, 6, 3, -1, 2, 27, 3, 10, 2, 3, 15, 8(9), 4, 2, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 10
1p: I, 28TD, 9, 8, -9(6), 18, 0, I, I, 16, 14TD, 42, I, 10
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Ohio U. 16
2r: 3(7), 0, 4(13), 5(7), 3(8), 0, 3(6), 14(8), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio U. 6
2p: I, 20, 10(6), I, 6(19), 9(4), 12(7), 21, 8, 20TD, I, I, I, 7
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Ohio U. 11
3r: 3(1), 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 1
3p: I, 5(4), 8(2), 15(13), I, 8(2), I, 4(2), 5TD, 35(7), 10(3), I , INT
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Ohio U. 6
4r: 1TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Ohio U. 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Ohio U. 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Ohio U. 33
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10 Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 52 Ohio U. 34
Big Plays: 28pTD, 20pTD, 27r, 35p, 42p, INT = 6
When Ohio U. had the ball:
Drive Starts: O24, O26, O25, O25, O25, O25, O25, O19, O25, O7, O14 = 241/12 = O22 with 859 yards to go
KO: S23, S25, S25, S24, S25, S23
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 6
P: 40 to S18, 48 to S33, 42 to S32
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 3
FG: Good from 43, Good from 37, Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 3
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 14
1r: 0, 9, 0, 2, 9, 14, 4, -2, 3, 44, 11(9), 4(1), -1v, 21, 8, 0, 2, 8, 7, 11, 16. -1
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 13
1p: I, I, 8, I, 20, 13, 8, I, I, 27, 5, -2(s), 6, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Ohio U. 21
2r: 4, 6(1), 13, 6, 11(1), 2(6), 4(7), 13TD, 46TD, 4(3),
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 9
2p: 13, 9(8), -3, -3(s), 6(7), -6(s), I, 27(8), 9(2), INT, 3(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio U. 15
3r: 5(4), 17(4), -2
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 2
3p: 9(6), -9(s), I, I, I, 6, 3(4), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio U. 5
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 0
4p: 15(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse10 Ohio U. 24
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Ohio U. 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 Ohio U. 42
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +5, +10 Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 3
Game total when Ohio U. had the ball: Syracuse 28 Ohio U. 59
Big Plays: 44r, 21r, 20p, 27p, 46TD, 27P, INT = 7
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 80 Ohio U. 93
Comments: If it looked like we struggled more than we expected to in the Ohio U. game, we did. We were 12-17 when we ran the ball and the Bobcats were 24-10 when they ran the ball, (9-1 on second down!). That wasn’t supposed to happen. You’d have through we won 38-22 because of big plays but they had more of them than we did, 6-7. We won because of red zone defense, holding them to three field goals to our one, and the equivalent of baseball’s “bunching our hits),having three straight TD drives in the second half wrapped around two three and outs to take a 38-16 lead.
The two teams were 30-0 combined when they kicked the ball, although we doinked our field goal off the left upright.
This is the first game of the Fran Brown Era and I’m not going to post all the results of the Dino Babers Era, but just for comparison, this was a -13 game, (80-93) and these are the closest games to this of the Dino Babers Era:
2016
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 We lost 61-76
2018
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36
2020
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11 We lost 10-21
2021
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11 We lost 30-33
2022
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11 We won 22-20
2023
Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 = -14 We lost 14-31
We lost 6 of the 7 games and were out-scored by an average of 25-38, so we can consider ourselves fortunate to win this one, although we did it through positive achievements, (red zone defense, ‘bunching’ of good plays) and won by what turned out to be a comfortable margin over what looked like a pretty good team.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
The Ohio U. game
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: S23, S25, S18, S25, S24, S25, S33, S32, S24, S35, S20 = 284/11 = S26 with 816 yards to go.
KO: O25, O25, O25, O25, O25, O19, O25
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 0
P: 45 to O26, 49 to O25, 52 to O7
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio U. 0
FG: Good from 26
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 16 Ohio U. 0
1r: 3, 6, 6, 3, -1, 2, 27, 3, 10, 2, 3, 15, 8(9), 4, 2, 2, 3
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 10
1p: I, 28TD, 9, 8, -9(6), 18, 0, I, I, 16, 14TD, 42, I, 10
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Ohio U. 16
2r: 3(7), 0, 4(13), 5(7), 3(8), 0, 3(6), 14(8), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 3 Ohio U. 6
2p: I, 20, 10(6), I, 6(19), 9(4), 12(7), 21, 8, 20TD, I, I, I, 7
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Ohio U. 11
3r: 3(1), 0
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 1
3p: I, 5(4), 8(2), 15(13), I, 8(2), I, 4(2), 5TD, 35(7), 10(3), I , INT
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Ohio U. 6
4r: 1TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 12 Ohio U. 17
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Ohio U. 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 36 Ohio U. 33
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -10 Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 52 Ohio U. 34
Big Plays: 28pTD, 20pTD, 27r, 35p, 42p, INT = 6
When Ohio U. had the ball:
Drive Starts: O24, O26, O25, O25, O25, O25, O25, O19, O25, O7, O14 = 241/12 = O22 with 859 yards to go
KO: S23, S25, S25, S24, S25, S23
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 6
P: 40 to S18, 48 to S33, 42 to S32
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 3
FG: Good from 43, Good from 37, Good from 20
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 3
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 14
1r: 0, 9, 0, 2, 9, 14, 4, -2, 3, 44, 11(9), 4(1), -1v, 21, 8, 0, 2, 8, 7, 11, 16. -1
Total: Syracuse 8 Ohio U. 13
1p: I, I, 8, I, 20, 13, 8, I, I, 27, 5, -2(s), 6, 5
Total: Syracuse 7 Ohio U. 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Ohio U. 21
2r: 4, 6(1), 13, 6, 11(1), 2(6), 4(7), 13TD, 46TD, 4(3),
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 9
2p: 13, 9(8), -3, -3(s), 6(7), -6(s), I, 27(8), 9(2), INT, 3(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio U. 15
3r: 5(4), 17(4), -2
Total: Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 2
3p: 9(6), -9(s), I, I, I, 6, 3(4), I
Total: Syracuse 5 Ohio U. 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Ohio U. 5
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 0
4p: 15(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Ohio U. 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse10 Ohio U. 24
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Ohio U. 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 Ohio U. 42
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5, +5, +10 Syracuse 1 Ohio U. 3
Game total when Ohio U. had the ball: Syracuse 28 Ohio U. 59
Big Plays: 44r, 21r, 20p, 27p, 46TD, 27P, INT = 7
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 80 Ohio U. 93
Comments: If it looked like we struggled more than we expected to in the Ohio U. game, we did. We were 12-17 when we ran the ball and the Bobcats were 24-10 when they ran the ball, (9-1 on second down!). That wasn’t supposed to happen. You’d have through we won 38-22 because of big plays but they had more of them than we did, 6-7. We won because of red zone defense, holding them to three field goals to our one, and the equivalent of baseball’s “bunching our hits),having three straight TD drives in the second half wrapped around two three and outs to take a 38-16 lead.
The two teams were 30-0 combined when they kicked the ball, although we doinked our field goal off the left upright.
This is the first game of the Fran Brown Era and I’m not going to post all the results of the Dino Babers Era, but just for comparison, this was a -13 game, (80-93) and these are the closest games to this of the Dino Babers Era:
2016
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 We lost 33-50
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 We lost 61-76
2018
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 We lost 3-36
2020
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11 We lost 10-21
2021
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11 We lost 30-33
2022
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11 We won 22-20
2023
Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 = -14 We lost 14-31
We lost 6 of the 7 games and were out-scored by an average of 25-38, so we can consider ourselves fortunate to win this one, although we did it through positive achievements, (red zone defense, ‘bunching’ of good plays) and won by what turned out to be a comfortable margin over what looked like a pretty good team.
