Winning Plays: Pittsburgh

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25, Pitt 25
Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 0
P: 38 to Pitt 28, 33 to 34, 38 to Pitt 20, 59 to Pitt 15, 45 to Pitt 40
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 2
FG: Good from 33, Good from 29, Good from 54
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 18 Pittsburgh 2

1r: 4, 2(8), 2TD, 4, 7, 7, 13, 5, 2, 13, 2, 2, 3, 5TD, 2, 4, 8, 2, 3, 5, -1v
Total: Syracuse 13 Pittsburgh 8
1p: 9, 19, I, 6, I, I, I, Interception, -3s, 27, I, I, 9, Interception
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 Pittsburgh 17
2r: 7, 5(6), 5(4), Fumble-TD, 2(3), 2(3), 4, 0, 1(7), 0, 3(2), 4(8), -11
Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 5
2p: 7(1), 0, 29, I, I, -1, 7(8), I, 15(6), 22, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Pittsburgh 13
3r: 8(6), 6(1), 3(1), 2(30, 21, 5(1)
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 1
3p: 6(6), 1TD, I, -4, 6(6), I, I, -6s, 22(6), I, 42, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 26 Pittsburgh 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 41 Pittsburgh 38

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -4, +5, +5 Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 1

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 62 Pittsburgh 41


When Pittsburgh had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 20, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 8
P: 43 to SU 9, 30 to Pitt 42, 34 to SU 42, 52 to SU 6, 34 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 2
FG: Good from 54, Good from 55, Good from 45
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 3
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 18

1r: 2, -8 Fumble, 6, 8, 1, 9, 4, 17, 1(5), 7, 11, 14, 1, 0, 29, 3, 25, 1(8), 5, 5, 4, 3, 9, 4
Total: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 15
1p: 9, 7, I, I, Interception, -4, I, 8, 11(5)
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Pittsburgh 19
2r: 1(1), 69(4), 5, -1, 3, 2(14), 3, -2, 6(2), 7TD, 1(5), 5(6), 397), 6(10, 3(6)
Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 8
2p: 11(8), I, -7s, I, 32(4), 68TD, -6s Fumble
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Pittsburgh 11
3r: -3, 1(4), 7(1), 3TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 2
3p: 0, 4(16), 2(2), -11s, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 3
4r: 3(3)
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 18 Pittsburgh 26
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 16 Pittsburgh 8
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Pittsburgh 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, +5, +5, +5 Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 4

Game total when Pittsburgh had the ball: Syracuse 37 Pittsburgh 56

Overall game total: Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97

Comments: People have suggested we really didn’t have a good offensive game, despite scoring 37 points. 62-41 is pretty good although we could have passed it better. Neither team did very well passing the ball, (we won 16 of 24 Pitt passing plays). Both teams ran the ball well. A big thing is that we didn’t have our usual advantage in special teams, (18-2 vs. 3-18). We didn’t do poorly but Pitt had an exceptional game with three field goals totaling 154 yards. Excluding overtime, (in which both teams are handed the ball on the other team’s 25 yard line), Syracuse’s average starting position was its own 31. Pitt’s was its own 33. We had 961 yards to the goal line when we got the ball, (in 14 possessions). They had 864 yards to go, (in 13 possessions). If both teams had the same number of possessions in regulation, (let’s use 14), that’s about 31 extra yards for Pitt, (14/13 x 864 = 930). Basically, there was little difference in what been a major advantage for the ‘Cuse. The result was an overtime game that could have gone either way and didn’t go our way.

One anomaly: The offense is typically more penalized than the defense when you factor out “tack on” penalties, (41 times to 16 going into this game). But 7 of the 8 non-tack on penalties in this game were against the defense. I don’t know why or what it means.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 + 10-0 + 6-0 + 8-0 = 51-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 7-0 + 3-2 = 23-4
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 = 16-1
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 2-0 + 4-0 = 30-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 + 23-0 + 18-0 + 18-2 = 120-6

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 + 16-7 + 5-5 + 13-8 = 76-56
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 + 11-5 + 9-6 + 5-9 = 43-35
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 + 27-12 + 14-11 + 18-17= 119-91
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 + 8-3 + 6-2 + 8-5 = 44-29
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 + 4-5 + 6-10 + 5-8 = 31-50
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 + 12-8 + 12-12 + 13-13 = 75-79
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6-5 + 3-1 + 1-5 + 5-1 = 24-18
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 1-7 + 2-7 + 5-7 = 18-36
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 10-8 = 42-54
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 4-3
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-1
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 = 6-4

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 + 27-11 +13-12 + 26-14 = 148-106
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 + 17-17 + 17-24 + 15-24 = 94-122
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 + 44-28 + 30-36 + 41-38 = 242-228

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5+ 0-8 + 0-3 + 3-1 = 14-24

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 + 67-36 + 48-39 + 62-41 = 376-258


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 0-8 = 12-18
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 3-7 + 1-3 + 3-2 = 21-20
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 = 2-6
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 = 0-20
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 + 5-12 +2-14 + 3-18 = 35-64

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 + 9-10 + 6-19 + 9-15 = 53-59
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 + 4-7 + 6-8 + 5-4 = 41-39
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 + 13-17 + 12-27 + 14-19 = 94-98
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 + 5-6 + 7-12 + 7-8 = 38-36
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 4-3 = 34-25
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 + 11-12 + 12-15 + 11-11 = 72-61
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 2-2 = 13-10
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 + 8-3 + 8-2 + 7-1= 44-14
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 + 10-4 + 10-5 + 9-3= 57-24
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 = 1-4
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 = 3-6

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 + 16-18 + 15-35 + 18-26 = 105-109
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 + 18-16 + 19-14 + 16-8 = 121-80
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 + 34-34 + 34-49 + 34-34 = 226-189

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 + 3-1+ 2-0 + 0-4 = 18-9

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24, 42-47+ 38-63 + 37-56 = 279-262

Overall Game Total: 109-96 + 139-65 + 113-77+ 109-83 + 86-102 + 99-97 = 655-520

Comment: When Dino Babers was hired, we pictured SU becoming an aerial circus type team. The first two years, our anemic running game was a problem. But this team seems to run the ball better than it passes it. Hopefully, the younger pass receivers will get more playing time. I think tyhey are better than Custis/Riley/Butler and they could get our passing game going.

The first four games we won 84 of our 88 kicking plays and 30 of the opposition’s 62 kicking plays. We’ve still won 36 of 38 of our kicking plays in the last two games but only 5 of the opposition’s 37 kicking plays, so the advantage has disappeared – and we lost two close games after winning four in a row by decisive margins.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 We’ve ‘won’ 5 of 6 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,312 plays, (48.9%) and 34 games, (37.0%). The opposition has won 8,770 plays and 56 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 458 more plays than we have in 92 games, an average of 4.98 plays a game.

 

[upperdeck]

pitt got 3 explosive play scores on top of 2 Fgs they never make for 27 of the 37 regulation points. thats a ton to overcome.

 

[721Comstock]

pitt got 3 explosive play scores on top of 2 Fgs they never make for 27 of the 37 regulation points. thats a ton to overcome.

Plus a HIGHLY questionable defensive TD off a "turnover" that 99% of the time is blown dead before it happens. (unless you're already considering that one of the explosive play scores)

Perfect storm of bad things all happening, and just enough of them to swing the outcome.