SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,529
- Like
- 67,223
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: P25, P35
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 1
P: 47 to P10, 19 to P20, 31 to P 30, 57 to P23, 44 to P40, 53 to P6
Total: Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 2
FG: Good from 26
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 7 Pittsburgh: 3
1r: -1, 4, 6, 8, 0, 4, 4, 2, 1, -1, 0, -2
Total: Syracuse: 5 Pittsburgh: 7
1p: I, -2, 7, I, -10s -3, 4, 2, I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 6
First Down Total: Syracuse: 7 Pittsburgh: 13
2r: 1, 4(12), 6(11), 0, 10(6), 6(4), 4(2), 10(6), 5(13), 8(6), 9(8), 12(9), 0
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 5
2p: -3s, 9(20), I, I, I, -6s, 4
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 12
3r: 1(3), 0, 5(8), Fumble
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 4
3p: 10(9), I, -4s, -4s, 69TD, Interception, 2, -7s, 6(12), I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 12
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 0
4p: -7s
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 13 Pittsburgh: 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 17 Pittsburgh: 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +15 Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 1
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse: 26 Pittsburgh: 42
When PITTSBURGH had the ball:
KO: SU25, SU20, SU22, SU14
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 4
P: 26 to P35, 37 to SU 35, 40 to SU20, 29 to P39
Total: Syracuse: 3 Pittsburgh: 1
FG: No Good from 37, Botched
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 5 Pittsburgh: 8
1r: 4, -3, 9, 3, 9, 13, 1, 9, 3(4), 3, 0, 2, 4, 3, 7, 1, 2, -1, 4, 6, -1v
Total: Syracuse: 10 Pittsburgh: 11
1p: -1s, I, 27TD, 20, 8(15), 5, I, 2(6), -10, 2, -1, I, 5(20)
Total: Syracuse: 9 Pittsburgh: 4
First Down Total: Syracuse: 19 Pittsburgh: 15
2r: 3(11), -6, Fumble, 6(1), 2(1), 2(1), 4, 14(20), 4(8), 13, 11(60, -1, 2(11)
Total: Syracuse: 6 Pittsburgh: 8
2p: I, 17(7), 13, -4s, 5(9), I, -8s, 3, I, Interception, 19(7), 25(15), 17TD, 1(8)
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 14 Pittsburgh:14
3r: 8(11), 5(1), 1TD, 3(9), 5(2)
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 3
3p: I, 8(8), 6(4), 12, I, 6, I, 3, I, 4(7)
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 10 Pittsburgh: 6
4r: none (I counted the botched field goal as a field goal attempt, not a run)
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 0
4p: 11(4)
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 18 Pittsburgh: 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 25 Pittsburgh: 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 43 Pittsburgh: 36
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, +15, =15, =8, -5, -15 Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 3
Game total when PITTSBURGH had the ball: Syracuse: 52 Pittsburgh: 47
Overall game total: Syracuse: 78 Pittsburgh: 89
Comments: Was this the Pittsburgh game all over again? We ‘won’ 9 of 34 offensive running plays vs. UNC and 13 of 29 vs. Pitt, so that was a slight improvement. Our passing game was bad vs. the Heels: 13 of 45 and almost non-existent, (save for one play) vs. the Panthers: 4 of 26. UNC won 51 of our 73 plays from scrimmage, Pitt 38 of 55, both about 69%. Defensively we won 18 of 33 running plays vs. UNC, 18 of 40 vs. Pitt, which had some success with those power sweeps. We won 17 of 38 passes vs. the heels and improved to 25 of 39 against the Panthers. Overall, our defense improved from 35 of 71, (49%), to 43 of 79 (54%), mostly because they kept playing well for 4 quarters vs. Pitt. The result was that we lost 10-21 instead of 6-31. But we’re still 0-2.
Our passing game breaks down like this: 2-6 on first down, (when it’s easiest to complete a pass because the defense will be more geared to the run: we are now 8-16 on first down passes), a ridiculous 0-7 on second down, (and 5-18 for the season), 2-8 on third down (4-19). It’s not that we are inconsistent: we are consistently bad.
One of the great things about the 2018 team is that we were strong on third down, (90 of 212, 42%). This team 6 of 26 so far, (23.0%). In 2018 the defense was a fabulous 130 of 192 (67.7%). This year they are 17 of 28, (60.7%), nearly as good.
In terms of winning plays, this game was much closer, (78-89 vs. 69-114) and the UNC game because the defense played well in the fourth quarter, we avoided penalties, (just one against the offense), and the kicking game went our way, (7-3 when we kicked, 5-8 when they kicked vs. 8-6, 1-14 last week). At -11, it was closest to these games of the Dino Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 but we won 31-24
2016: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 and we lost 33-50
2016: Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 and we lost 61-76
2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 and we lost 14-42
2018: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 and we lost 3-36
That’s a wild pattern, indicating that where there isn’t a great difference between ‘won’ plays, you have to look at the big plays: big gains and kick returns, turnovers, special teams disasters and “bunching” of good plays, like stringing hits together in baseball.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
KO: P25, P35
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 1
P: 47 to P10, 19 to P20, 31 to P 30, 57 to P23, 44 to P40, 53 to P6
Total: Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 2
FG: Good from 26
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse: 1 Pittsburgh: 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 7 Pittsburgh: 3
1r: -1, 4, 6, 8, 0, 4, 4, 2, 1, -1, 0, -2
Total: Syracuse: 5 Pittsburgh: 7
1p: I, -2, 7, I, -10s -3, 4, 2, I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 6
First Down Total: Syracuse: 7 Pittsburgh: 13
2r: 1, 4(12), 6(11), 0, 10(6), 6(4), 4(2), 10(6), 5(13), 8(6), 9(8), 12(9), 0
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 5
2p: -3s, 9(20), I, I, I, -6s, 4
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 12
3r: 1(3), 0, 5(8), Fumble
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 4
3p: 10(9), I, -4s, -4s, 69TD, Interception, 2, -7s, 6(12), I
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 12
4r: none
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 0
4p: -7s
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 13 Pittsburgh: 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 17 Pittsburgh: 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +15 Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 1
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse: 26 Pittsburgh: 42
When PITTSBURGH had the ball:
KO: SU25, SU20, SU22, SU14
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 4
P: 26 to P35, 37 to SU 35, 40 to SU20, 29 to P39
Total: Syracuse: 3 Pittsburgh: 1
FG: No Good from 37, Botched
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse: 5 Pittsburgh: 8
1r: 4, -3, 9, 3, 9, 13, 1, 9, 3(4), 3, 0, 2, 4, 3, 7, 1, 2, -1, 4, 6, -1v
Total: Syracuse: 10 Pittsburgh: 11
1p: -1s, I, 27TD, 20, 8(15), 5, I, 2(6), -10, 2, -1, I, 5(20)
Total: Syracuse: 9 Pittsburgh: 4
First Down Total: Syracuse: 19 Pittsburgh: 15
2r: 3(11), -6, Fumble, 6(1), 2(1), 2(1), 4, 14(20), 4(8), 13, 11(60, -1, 2(11)
Total: Syracuse: 6 Pittsburgh: 8
2p: I, 17(7), 13, -4s, 5(9), I, -8s, 3, I, Interception, 19(7), 25(15), 17TD, 1(8)
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse: 14 Pittsburgh:14
3r: 8(11), 5(1), 1TD, 3(9), 5(2)
Total: Syracuse: 2 Pittsburgh: 3
3p: I, 8(8), 6(4), 12, I, 6, I, 3, I, 4(7)
Total: Syracuse: 8 Pittsburgh: 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse: 10 Pittsburgh: 6
4r: none (I counted the botched field goal as a field goal attempt, not a run)
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 0
4p: 11(4)
Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse: 0 Pittsburgh: 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse: 18 Pittsburgh: 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse: 25 Pittsburgh: 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse: 43 Pittsburgh: 36
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, +15, =15, =8, -5, -15 Syracuse: 4 Pittsburgh: 3
Game total when PITTSBURGH had the ball: Syracuse: 52 Pittsburgh: 47
Overall game total: Syracuse: 78 Pittsburgh: 89
Comments: Was this the Pittsburgh game all over again? We ‘won’ 9 of 34 offensive running plays vs. UNC and 13 of 29 vs. Pitt, so that was a slight improvement. Our passing game was bad vs. the Heels: 13 of 45 and almost non-existent, (save for one play) vs. the Panthers: 4 of 26. UNC won 51 of our 73 plays from scrimmage, Pitt 38 of 55, both about 69%. Defensively we won 18 of 33 running plays vs. UNC, 18 of 40 vs. Pitt, which had some success with those power sweeps. We won 17 of 38 passes vs. the heels and improved to 25 of 39 against the Panthers. Overall, our defense improved from 35 of 71, (49%), to 43 of 79 (54%), mostly because they kept playing well for 4 quarters vs. Pitt. The result was that we lost 10-21 instead of 6-31. But we’re still 0-2.
Our passing game breaks down like this: 2-6 on first down, (when it’s easiest to complete a pass because the defense will be more geared to the run: we are now 8-16 on first down passes), a ridiculous 0-7 on second down, (and 5-18 for the season), 2-8 on third down (4-19). It’s not that we are inconsistent: we are consistently bad.
One of the great things about the 2018 team is that we were strong on third down, (90 of 212, 42%). This team 6 of 26 so far, (23.0%). In 2018 the defense was a fabulous 130 of 192 (67.7%). This year they are 17 of 28, (60.7%), nearly as good.
In terms of winning plays, this game was much closer, (78-89 vs. 69-114) and the UNC game because the defense played well in the fourth quarter, we avoided penalties, (just one against the offense), and the kicking game went our way, (7-3 when we kicked, 5-8 when they kicked vs. 8-6, 1-14 last week). At -11, it was closest to these games of the Dino Babers era:
2016: Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8 but we won 31-24
2016: Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13 and we lost 33-50
2016: Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11 and we lost 61-76
2017: Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10 and we lost 14-42
2018: Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13 and we lost 3-36
That’s a wild pattern, indicating that where there isn’t a great difference between ‘won’ plays, you have to look at the big plays: big gains and kick returns, turnovers, special teams disasters and “bunching” of good plays, like stringing hits together in baseball.
