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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 4835066, member: 289"] This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play. - On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic. - On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down. - Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. - If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below. - A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball. - On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins. - On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play. - A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team. - Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it. - A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team. I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc. I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs. When Syracuse had the ball: Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 14, SU 25, SU 28, SU 20, SU 17, SU 48, SU 38, PY 34, SU 26, SU 35 = 342/11 = SU 31 with 758 yards to go (+112 yards advantage) KO: PT 25, PT 25, PT 22, PT 25, PT 25 Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 0 P: 35 to PT 16, 14 to SU 46, 44 to PT 20, 38 to PT 44 Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 2 FG: No Good from 35 Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 XP: Good, Good, Good, Good Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 0 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Pittsburgh 3 1r: 34, 5, 6, 0, 1, 10, 11, 6, FUMBLE, 3, 12, 2, 2, 4, 4, -1, 4, 0, 12, 5, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4, 6 Total: Syracuse 17 Pittsburgh 11 1p: I Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 First Down Total: Syracuse 17 Pittsburgh 12 2r: 8(5), 5(4), 4, 0, 7(7), 0, 8(6), 5(6), 10, 3, 0, 27TD, 3(8), 12(6), 3(5), 7(13), 0(0), 4, 16(6), 1(4), Total: Syracuse 13 Pittsburgh 6 2p: 5TD, 6(8), I, 2(11), I Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 3 Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 9 3r: 12(11), 3(4), 1(2), 0, 0, 4(1), 5(7), 38(5), 12(5), 5(2), 4(6), 6(2), 1(1) Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 5 3p: I, I, 4(6), Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 3 Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 8 4r: 2(1), 21TD, 1(2), -2v (the clock went to 00:00 during the play) Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 1 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 41 Pittsburgh 23 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 7 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Pittsburgh 30 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +5, -5 Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 3 Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 55 Pittsburgh 36 Big Plays: 34 yar run, Fumble recovery, 21 yard TD run, 38 yards run, Pick 6, Fumble recovery, 27 yard TD run, Fumble recovery. (8) When Pittsburgh had the ball: Drive Starts: PT 25, SU 37, PT 16, SU 46, PT 20, PT 44, PT 25, PT 12, PT 1, PT 25, PT 25, PT 20 = 330/12 = PT 27.5 with 870 yards to go (-112 yards disadvantage) KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25 Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 3 P: 47 to SU 13, 47 to SU 28, 17 to SU 20, 43 to SU 38, 44 to SU 26 Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 5 FG: Good from 35, Good from 33 Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2 XP: Good Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 11 1r: 8, -2, 6, -1, 9, 5, Fumble, 2, 5, Fumble 7 Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 6 1p: 9, I, 9, I, 65, I, I, I, I, 36 Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 4 First Down Total: Syracuse 11 Pittsburgh 10 2r: 1, 5(21), 3(4), 6(1), -1, 11(1), 4(5), 1, Fumble Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 5 2p: I, 8(12), 6(11), 27, I, 7, Pick 6, 5 Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 5 Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 10 3r: 0 Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 3p: 5, 1(4), 0, I, 10TD, 9(5), I, 5(4), I Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 4 Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 4 4r: 2(1) Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 4p: none Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0 Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1 Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 12 Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Pittsburgh 13 Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Pittsburgh 25 Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +5 Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 1 Game total when Pittsburgh had the ball: Syracuse 25 Pittsburgh 38 Big Plays: Fumble recovery, 34 punt return, 65 yard pass, 27 yard pass, 36 yard pass (5) Overall game total: Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 73 Comments: Not only did we win 17 of 28 first down runs on offense but we HAD 28 first down runs. That’s what the opposition has been doing to us. But it was turning around the turnover battle that really won us the game. We were 4-11, (we turned ti over 11 times to their 4) during the losing streak. It was 4-1 with a pick 6 in this game. I hope we don’t give up passes of 34, 65 and 27 yards in our next game. Jack Stonehouse is a fine punter but we aren’t always winning his punts. We are 17-9 on his punts in the last four games. We were 18-4 before that. This was +7 game, (80 plays to 73). Here are the most similar games of the Babers Era: 2017 Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6 We Lost 23-30 2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17 2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30 2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20 2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6 2022 Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7 We won 32-29 If we can win the plays, we can win the game. [/QUOTE]

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