Winning Plays: Pittsburgh

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: S23, S25m S25, S25, S15, S38, S25, S27, S12, S25, S25, S23 = 322/13 = S25 with 978 yards to go, 299 more than Pittsburgh.

KO: P25, P25, P25
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0
P: 42 to Pitt 29, 36 to Pitt 14, 39 to Pitt 32
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 1
FG: No Good from 48
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1
XP: Good, Try for Two – No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 3

1r: 6, 2, -2, 8, 0, 2, 8, 3, 4, 2
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 6
1p: I, I, I, 4(20), I, I, 5, 0, I, I, INT-TD, -15(s), 20, I, I, 1(2), 15, I, 37, I -1(s), 13, -3, I, I, I, -1
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 21
First Down Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 27
2r: 4(4), 0, 2(2), 0, 0, 0, 4, 2TD, 9, 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 6
2p: 10, INT-TD, I, I, 7(4), 12, I, 4, 4, 15, 7, 6, I, 7, 29(20), 5(7), 0, 8, I, 5(13), I
Total: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 11
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh 17
3r: 7(4), 0, 1(2), 1TD
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 3
3p: INT, 24(8), INT-TD, 16(21), I, I, 8(5), -15(s), 3(1), INT, I, I, I, 12(8), -15(s)
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 14
4r: 1(1), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 0
4p: 6(5), I, 4(3), 1(2), 21(11)
Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 2

Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Pittsburgh 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 24 Pittsburgh 45
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 Pittsburgh 60

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6(5), I, 4(3), 6(2), 21(11) Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 47 Pittsburgh 69

Big Plays: 24p, 20p, 29p, 37p, 21p (5)

Comments: When I saw that we had advantages of 327-217 in yards gained, 23-13 in first downs, 41:12-18:48 in TOP and making 6 of 7 fourth down plays, that, despite the one-sided scored and the 5 picks, 3 of which went for scores, we would be dominant in plays. We weren’t. 29 incomplete passes, (including the 5 interceptions), plus 6 rushing plays that gained no years at all were too much to overcome.

In three first half, we were 14-33 on plays from scrimmage, including 1-11 on first down passes, usual a great down to pass on because the defense don’t know if you are going to run or pass. But Pitt knew what we were going to do. The second half was 24-27.


When Pittsburgh had the ball:

Drive Starts: P25, S43, P35, P28, P14, P25, S45, P32, P21, P30 = 321/10 = 679 yards to go, 299 less than Syracuse, (Three of their ‘possessions’ were Pick 6s and thus not ‘drive starts’)

KO: S25, S25, S25, S25, S25, S27, S25, S25
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 7
P: 49 to S23, 37 to S15, 44 to S38, 45 to S12
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 5
FG: Good from 49, Good from 57
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 19

1r: 2, 9, 8, 5, 2, -1, 13, 13, 1, 4
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 6
1p: -3, I, 7, 2, 6, 3, 21, -6, 20 -6(s)
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 12
2r: 2(1), 5(13), 4(2), 5, 3, 2
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 3
2p: 8(5), -6(s), 10(16), 5(4), 8(11), 29(7), 1(16), 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 5 Pittsburgh 9
3r: 1, -1, 0
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0
3p: I, 20TD, I, I, I, 17(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 2
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 Pittsburgh 23

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -8 Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 1

Game total when Pittsburgh had the ball: Syracuse 21 Pittsburgh 43

Big Plays: Int-TD, Int, INT-TD, Stop on Downs, 20TDp, INT-TD, INT, 21p, 20p (9)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112

Comments: The SU defense gave as good as they got vs. the Pittsburgh offense but didn’t dominate them as the yardage stats seemed to indicate. The Pitt offense got 40% of the yards in 31% of the time. We got 60% of the yards in 69% of the time.

But the real source of their dominance in winning plays when they had the ball was that they had 20 kicking plays and got what they wanted 19 times. The only time they did it was at the beginning of the second half when Malachi James returned the kickoff out to the 27m two yards better than a touchback. Pitt’s wins included five punts that earned them 219 yards, five extra points and field goals of 49 and 57 yards. SU’s kicks included three punts that earned 117 yards, a missed 48 yard field goal, (we still have kicked on from father than 33), and a failed try for two. We were 7-3 on kicking plays. It killed me that a team that plays in the Dome and is known as “Kicker U”, is so much worse than a team that plays in windy Heinz, (‘Arisure’) Field. It stinks.

So this was a 68-112 game, -44, entirely what you’d expect with a 13-41 score. These are the closest games since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era to a -44 result in ‘winning plays’:

2019 Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43 We lost 27-58
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 8-31
2020 Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40 We lost 21-47
2022 Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We lost 24-41
2022 Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41 We lost 3-38
2023 Syracuse 61 Virginia Tech 101 = -40 We lost 10-38

All very pleasant experiences. We’re about to play Va Tech again. Let’s not add to this list.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = S30/839, 524/14 = S37/876, 344/11 = S 31/756, 305/9 = S34/595, 322/13 = S25/978 TOTAL: 2,367/79 =S30 with 5,523 yards to go (14 less than the opposition).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 + 4-1 + 3-0 = 35-4
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 2-1 = 14-6
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-1 = 6-6
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 3-0 + 1-1 = 27-1
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 + 9-2 + 7-3 = 82-17

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 + 8-12 + 4-6 = 51-58
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 + 9-4 + 6-21 = 65-69
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 + 17-16 + 10-27 = 116-127
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 + 3-5 + 6-6 = 36-32
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 + 10-7 + 9-11= 64-59
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 + 13-12 + 15-17 = 100-91
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 2-3 = 10-8
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 + 7-6 + 4-11 = 48-47
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 + 9-6 + 6-14 = 58-55
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 7-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 + 5-2 = 8-4
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 + 2-1 + 7-2 = 15-4

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 + 13-17 + 14-15 = 104-98
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 + 28-18 + 24-45 = 185-179
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 + 41-35 + 38-60 = 289-277

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 + 2-3 + 2-6 = 12-23

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 + 52-40 + 47-69 = 383-317

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 + 5 = 38

Comments: You wouldn’t have guessed it but our running game and our passing game are both +6. Passes have more potential but also more risk. We could use some more speed in the receiving corps, Zeed. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense and special teams due to lack of pressure. But 73-59 on third and fourth down will win a lot of games.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 183/8 = O23/617, 321/10 = O32/679 TOTAL= 2,063/76 = O27 with 5,537 yards to go, (14 more than SU ).

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 + 1-3 + 1-7 = 4-34
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-5 = 8-20
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 + 1-1 + 0-2 = 2-12
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-2 + 0-5 = 0-22
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 + 3-6 + 1-19 = 14-88

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 + 9-4 + 4-6 = 53-45
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 + 5-9 + 4-6 = 35-53
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 + 14-13 + 8-12 = 88-98
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 + 1-5 + 3-3 = 20-32
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 + 2-4 + 2-6 = 35-39
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 + 3-9 + 5-9 = 55-71
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 3-0 = 11-8
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 + 4-1 + 3-2 = 35-18
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 + 4-1 + 6-2 = 46-26
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-4
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-5

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 + 10-9 + 10-9 = 86-86
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 + 11-15 + 9-14 = 105-114
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 + 21-24 +19-23 = 191-200

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 + 3-5 + 1-1 = 12-19

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 + 27-35 + 21-43 = 217-307

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 = 34

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95+ 79-75 + 68-112 = 600-624

Comments: We were 5-1 but we were blade-running. We’ve lost the plays in 4 of the 7 games. We need to improve to be a truly strong team. Our running game hasn’t really gotten going. We aren’t throwing long. Our defense has sprung some leaks and our kicking game is unreliable.

Our opponents this year have attempted 12 field goals. They’ve made 11, (thank you, Georgia Tech), but keeping the other team out of the end zone has allowed us to go 5-1 while we struggle through these games.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Syracuse 80 Ohio University 93 = -13
Syracuse 90 Georgia Tech 87 = +3
Syracuse 77 Stanford 91 = -14
Syracuse 112 Holy Cross 71 = +41
Syracuse 94 Nevada-Las Vegas 95 = -1
Syracuse 79 North Carolina State 75 = +4
Syracuse 68 Pittsburgh 112 = -44
TOTAL: Syracuse: 600 Opponents 624 = -24 We’ve won 3 of 7 games, by ‘winning okays’.
We have won 49.0% of the 1,224 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%) and 42.9% of the 7 games, based on winning plays, (Dino won 39.8%). Their team has achieved their goals on 24 more plays than we have, 3.43 per game.