SWC75
Bored Historian
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S9, S25, S25, S30, S39, S16, S25, S35, S23, P50 = 302/11 = S27 with 798 to go
KO: P25, P25, P25, P25, P25, P25
Total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 0
P: 45 to P25, 47 to P10, 18 to P45, 36 to P35, 32 to P20, 30 to P44
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 3
FG: Good from 50, No Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
XP: Good, Try-Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Purdue 4
1r: 7, 11, 15, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 0, 8, 4, 0, 9, 0, 0, -5
Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 7
1p: I, 6, I, 11, 11, -1s, 12, I, 20, I, 12, I, I, 25TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Purdue 14
2r: 4, 6(3), 10(4), 4, 1(5), 8(7), 9(9), 1(6), 4(20), -9, 0, -1, 9, 1(14)
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 7
2p: 7(4), I, I, 8, 11(1), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Purdue 12
3r: 3(2), 0, 8(15)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
3p: I, I, I, I, I, 9(6), 3TD, 3TD, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
4p: 46TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Purdue 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Purdue 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 31 Purdue 34
Penalties not tacked on to plays:
+13, -10, -4, +15, -10, +3, -5, +10, +15, +15, +15 Syracuse 7 Purdue 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 52 Purdue 42
Big Plays: Blocked point, Missed Field Goal, 20 yard pass, 46TD pass, 27 kickoff return, 25TD pass
When PURDUE had the ball:
Drive Starts: P25, P25, P10, P23, P45, P25, P35, P25, P25, P25, P20 , P44, P25 = 352/13 = P27 with 948 to go
KO: S25, S25, S25, S35, P50
Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 3
P: 41 to S30, 32 to S39, 34 to S16
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
FG: Good from 41, No good from 41
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
XP: Blocked, Try- No Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 8
1r: 21p, -6, 1, 13, -3, 3, 3, 0, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Purdue 2
1p: 8, 10, I, 2, I, 6(15), 15TD, 18, 5, I, I, I, 6, I, I, 1, I, 6, INTERCEPTION Pick-6, 55TD, 6, 0, 13(15), I, 9
Total: Syracuse 14 Purdue 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Purdue 12
2r: 0, 4(8), 5, 5(7), 3, 7(9), 1(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 4
2p: 1(2), 9, 7(4), 22(16), 16(9), 13(9), 7(5), 2, I, 5, 7(13), 4, 11TD, 0, I, I, 4(2), I, 12(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 13
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 17
3r: 1(1), 1(2), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
3p: 7(1), 13(16), 13(8), 4(5), I, I, I, 13(2), 13(6), 14(4), 51(4), I, 30(10)
Total: Syracuse 5 Purdue 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse Purdue
4r: 2(3), 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Purdue 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 25 Purdue 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 Purdue 40
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, +5, -15, -10 Syracuse 3 Purdue 2
Game total when PURDUE had the ball: Syracuse 47 Purdue 50
Big Plays: 21 run(p), 22 pass, blocked point, Interception-Pick 6, 55TD pass, 51 pass missed field goal, 30 pass
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 99 Purdue 92
Comments: I was surprised we won more plays than Purdue. They really picked us apart in the first half.
Our first five third down passes were incomplete. Purdue’s last five first down runs came up short. We actually gained yards on penalties not tacked onto our offensive plays. The Boilermakers should have kept their boilers shut: they had 80 yards in penalties in the last 51 seconds of the game. One was defensive holding and another pass interference. The other four were unsportsmanlike conduct and those had them kicking for from their 10 and us kicking off from their 30. We couldn’t have won without the big plays we made, (‘we’ being Garrett Shrader and Oronde Gadsden), but we wouldn’t have had the opportunity to win if they’d remained silent. And it was the Big Ten refs that weren’t taking their guff.
Similar games in the Babers era, (at least similar in this ‘winning plays’ stat)
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
If we can break even in winning plays, we’ve got a good chance to win.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When SYRACUSE had the ball:
Drive Starts: S25, S9, S25, S25, S30, S39, S16, S25, S35, S23, P50 = 302/11 = S27 with 798 to go
KO: P25, P25, P25, P25, P25, P25
Total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 0
P: 45 to P25, 47 to P10, 18 to P45, 36 to P35, 32 to P20, 30 to P44
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 3
FG: Good from 50, No Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
XP: Good, Try-Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 14 Purdue 4
1r: 7, 11, 15, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 0, 8, 4, 0, 9, 0, 0, -5
Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 7
1p: I, 6, I, 11, 11, -1s, 12, I, 20, I, 12, I, I, 25TD
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 16 Purdue 14
2r: 4, 6(3), 10(4), 4, 1(5), 8(7), 9(9), 1(6), 4(20), -9, 0, -1, 9, 1(14)
Total: Syracuse 7 Purdue 7
2p: 7(4), I, I, 8, 11(1), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Purdue 12
3r: 3(2), 0, 8(15)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
3p: I, I, I, I, I, 9(6), 3TD, 3TD, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 6
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Purdue 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
4p: 46TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Purdue 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 14 Purdue 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 31 Purdue 34
Penalties not tacked on to plays:
+13, -10, -4, +15, -10, +3, -5, +10, +15, +15, +15 Syracuse 7 Purdue 4
Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 52 Purdue 42
Big Plays: Blocked point, Missed Field Goal, 20 yard pass, 46TD pass, 27 kickoff return, 25TD pass
When PURDUE had the ball:
Drive Starts: P25, P25, P10, P23, P45, P25, P35, P25, P25, P25, P20 , P44, P25 = 352/13 = P27 with 948 to go
KO: S25, S25, S25, S35, P50
Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 3
P: 41 to S30, 32 to S39, 34 to S16
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
FG: Good from 41, No good from 41
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
XP: Blocked, Try- No Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 Purdue 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 8
1r: 21p, -6, 1, 13, -3, 3, 3, 0, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 Purdue 2
1p: 8, 10, I, 2, I, 6(15), 15TD, 18, 5, I, I, I, 6, I, I, 1, I, 6, INTERCEPTION Pick-6, 55TD, 6, 0, 13(15), I, 9
Total: Syracuse 14 Purdue 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Purdue 12
2r: 0, 4(8), 5, 5(7), 3, 7(9), 1(7)
Total: Syracuse 3 Purdue 4
2p: 1(2), 9, 7(4), 22(16), 16(9), 13(9), 7(5), 2, I, 5, 7(13), 4, 11TD, 0, I, I, 4(2), I, 12(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 Purdue 13
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 Purdue 17
3r: 1(1), 1(2), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 2
3p: 7(1), 13(16), 13(8), 4(5), I, I, I, 13(2), 13(6), 14(4), 51(4), I, 30(10)
Total: Syracuse 5 Purdue 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse Purdue
4r: 2(3), 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Purdue 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Purdue 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Purdue 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 25 Purdue 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 Purdue 40
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, +5, -15, -10 Syracuse 3 Purdue 2
Game total when PURDUE had the ball: Syracuse 47 Purdue 50
Big Plays: 21 run(p), 22 pass, blocked point, Interception-Pick 6, 55TD pass, 51 pass missed field goal, 30 pass
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 99 Purdue 92
Comments: I was surprised we won more plays than Purdue. They really picked us apart in the first half.
Our first five third down passes were incomplete. Purdue’s last five first down runs came up short. We actually gained yards on penalties not tacked onto our offensive plays. The Boilermakers should have kept their boilers shut: they had 80 yards in penalties in the last 51 seconds of the game. One was defensive holding and another pass interference. The other four were unsportsmanlike conduct and those had them kicking for from their 10 and us kicking off from their 30. We couldn’t have won without the big plays we made, (‘we’ being Garrett Shrader and Oronde Gadsden), but we wouldn’t have had the opportunity to win if they’d remained silent. And it was the Big Ten refs that weren’t taking their guff.
Similar games in the Babers era, (at least similar in this ‘winning plays’ stat)
2016 Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9 We won 28-20
2017 Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7 We won 41-17
2019 Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7 We won 39-30
2020 Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6 We won 37-20
2021 Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7 We won 21-6
If we can break even in winning plays, we’ve got a good chance to win.
