SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU18, SU23, SF28, SU17, SU25, SU27, SU23, SU32, SU25, SU25, SU40, SU17, SU25, SU42, SU20, SU17 = 448/16 = SU28 with 1,152 to go
KO: SF25
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 0
P: 38 to SF36, 31 to SF44, 54 to SF19, 35 to SF49, 49 to SF22, 34 to SF13, 30 to SF12, 34 to SF20, 38 to SF39, 3 to SU24
Total: Syracuse 5 South Florida 5
FG: Botched-TD
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 6
1r: 3, 0, 1, 3, 1, -6, 0, 0, 2, 3, 10, 0, 1, -3, 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 15
1p: 33, 20, 16, 8, 5, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 South Florida 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 17
2r: 0, 2, -14, 6(7), 5(2), 1(7), 3, 2(9), 3(13), -2, 4, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 10
2p: Interception, I, I, I, Interception
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 15
3r: 5(8), -2, 5(7), 3(9)
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 4
3p: 10(12), 14(23), 2(15), I, Sack-Fumble-TD, I, I, I, 33(10), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 15
4r: 6(3), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 5 South Florida 30
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 South Florida 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 11 South Florida 48
Penalties not tacked onto plays: -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 South Florida 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 17 South Florida 58
Big Plays: Fumble recovery, 53 yd pass, 20 yd pass, 33 yd pass. (4)
When South Florida had the ball:
Drive Starts: SF25, SF36, SF44, SF19, SF25, SF49, SU43, SF22, SF13, SU26, SF12, SF20, SF39, SU24 = 511/14 = SF37 with 889 to go.
KO: SU23, SU17, SU25, SU23, SU28, SU25, SU25, SU25
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 5
P: 45 to SU18, 41 to SU 27, 40 to SU 40, 19 to SU17, 40 to 42, 32 to SU20, 42 to SU17
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 6
FG: Good from 40
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 6
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 South Florida 18
1r: 3, 3, 5, 4, 8, 0, 2, 2, 0, 3, 1, 2, 1(4), 6, 6, 7, 0, 4, -4v
Total: Syracuse 11 South Florida 8
1p: I, 11(5), Fumble, -2, 8(19), I, 16(25), 2(19), 13, I, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 South Florida 14
2r: 9(7), 12(13), 3(6), 3(2), -2, 14(8), 4(2), 4(7), 8(7), I, 6(9), 12, 8(8), 1(3), 0, -2, 6(3), 4(11)
Total: Syracuse 7 South Florida 11
2p: I, 11(5), Fumble, -2, 8(19), I, 16(25), 2(19), 13, I, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 South Florida 14
3r: 3(1), 9(11), 7, 1(3), 7(9), 2TD
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 3
3p: 3(13), 6(3), 9(2), I, 5(17), 21(3), I, 8(6), I, -1(s)
Total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 South Florida 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
4p: 35TD
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 South Florida 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 South Florida 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 South Florida 36
Penalties not tacked onto plays: +15 -5, -5, -10, -10, -14. -5, -5 Syracuse 7 South Florida 1
Game total when South Florida had the ball: Syracuse 54 South Florida 55
Big Plays: Return of botched field goal attempt, Sack fumble return-TD, 33yd pass, 31TD pass, Interception, Interception, 35TD pass, 21TD pass (8)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 71 South Florida 113
Comments: When the game summary begins “KO: SF25” you know things did not go well. “XP: none” is similarly unhelpful. But the number that jumped out at me was our first down runs: 1 win 15 losses. In the three previous games in which we ran the ‘wildcat’, we were 17-11, 8-8 and 14-11 for a total of 39 wins and 20 losses. That’s what happens when the other team has 3 weeks to prepare and puts everybody “in the box”. Overall we ran 35 running plays and won 5 of them.
The flip side of that was that first down passes were wide open: we completed our first five of them for 82 yards. But we were 1-18 on all our other passes. Being 1-11 on third down passes and 1-15 overall on third down was still another horrible stat from this debacle. All told we ran 59 offensive plays and got the minimum of what we could have wanted 11 times, (18.6% of the time). I’ve never seen that stat that bad. When we beat Colgate 65-0 to start the season, they were 16-41, (28.1%) on offensive plays. When Wagner asked for the second half to be played in 10 minute quarters last year, they were 10-28, (26.3%).
Our kicking game didn’t help. We won only 7 of 13 plays and gave up a touchdown on a botched field goal attempt. The Bulls won 18 of their 22 kicking plays. Another bad stat for SU: (SF) XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good.
The sad thing is that, aside from a two long TD passes they surrendered, the defense played well, certainly well enough to keep us in the game if the offense had been productive and if they and the kicking game had not produced horrendous big plays for USF. Our defense won 43 of 79 plays from scrimmage. But no one will ever remember. It will just be a 0-45 disaster to end the Babers era.
This was a -52 game (71-113), the worst of the Babers Era. Here are the most similar games:
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54
2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 We lost 14-45
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2022 Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We lost 24-41
2023 Syracuse 61 Florida State 116 = -55 We lost 3-41
Having the other team run 40-50 more successful plays than you did is not a formula for success.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU18, SU23, SF28, SU17, SU25, SU27, SU23, SU32, SU25, SU25, SU40, SU17, SU25, SU42, SU20, SU17 = 448/16 = SU28 with 1,152 to go
KO: SF25
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 0
P: 38 to SF36, 31 to SF44, 54 to SF19, 35 to SF49, 49 to SF22, 34 to SF13, 30 to SF12, 34 to SF20, 38 to SF39, 3 to SU24
Total: Syracuse 5 South Florida 5
FG: Botched-TD
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
XP: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 6
1r: 3, 0, 1, 3, 1, -6, 0, 0, 2, 3, 10, 0, 1, -3, 2, 0
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 15
1p: 33, 20, 16, 8, 5, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 South Florida 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 17
2r: 0, 2, -14, 6(7), 5(2), 1(7), 3, 2(9), 3(13), -2, 4, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 10
2p: Interception, I, I, I, Interception
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 15
3r: 5(8), -2, 5(7), 3(9)
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 4
3p: 10(12), 14(23), 2(15), I, Sack-Fumble-TD, I, I, I, 33(10), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 11
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 15
4r: 6(3), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 5 South Florida 30
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 South Florida 18
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 11 South Florida 48
Penalties not tacked onto plays: -5, -5, -5, -5 Syracuse 0 South Florida 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 17 South Florida 58
Big Plays: Fumble recovery, 53 yd pass, 20 yd pass, 33 yd pass. (4)
When South Florida had the ball:
Drive Starts: SF25, SF36, SF44, SF19, SF25, SF49, SU43, SF22, SF13, SU26, SF12, SF20, SF39, SU24 = 511/14 = SF37 with 889 to go.
KO: SU23, SU17, SU25, SU23, SU28, SU25, SU25, SU25
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 5
P: 45 to SU18, 41 to SU 27, 40 to SU 40, 19 to SU17, 40 to 42, 32 to SU20, 42 to SU17
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 6
FG: Good from 40
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 6
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 South Florida 18
1r: 3, 3, 5, 4, 8, 0, 2, 2, 0, 3, 1, 2, 1(4), 6, 6, 7, 0, 4, -4v
Total: Syracuse 11 South Florida 8
1p: I, 11(5), Fumble, -2, 8(19), I, 16(25), 2(19), 13, I, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 South Florida 14
2r: 9(7), 12(13), 3(6), 3(2), -2, 14(8), 4(2), 4(7), 8(7), I, 6(9), 12, 8(8), 1(3), 0, -2, 6(3), 4(11)
Total: Syracuse 7 South Florida 11
2p: I, 11(5), Fumble, -2, 8(19), I, 16(25), 2(19), 13, I, 3
Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 15 South Florida 14
3r: 3(1), 9(11), 7, 1(3), 7(9), 2TD
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 3
3p: 3(13), 6(3), 9(2), I, 5(17), 21(3), I, 8(6), I, -1(s)
Total: Syracuse 6 South Florida 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 South Florida 7
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
4p: 35TD
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 South Florida 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 South Florida 14
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 South Florida 36
Penalties not tacked onto plays: +15 -5, -5, -10, -10, -14. -5, -5 Syracuse 7 South Florida 1
Game total when South Florida had the ball: Syracuse 54 South Florida 55
Big Plays: Return of botched field goal attempt, Sack fumble return-TD, 33yd pass, 31TD pass, Interception, Interception, 35TD pass, 21TD pass (8)
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 71 South Florida 113
Comments: When the game summary begins “KO: SF25” you know things did not go well. “XP: none” is similarly unhelpful. But the number that jumped out at me was our first down runs: 1 win 15 losses. In the three previous games in which we ran the ‘wildcat’, we were 17-11, 8-8 and 14-11 for a total of 39 wins and 20 losses. That’s what happens when the other team has 3 weeks to prepare and puts everybody “in the box”. Overall we ran 35 running plays and won 5 of them.
The flip side of that was that first down passes were wide open: we completed our first five of them for 82 yards. But we were 1-18 on all our other passes. Being 1-11 on third down passes and 1-15 overall on third down was still another horrible stat from this debacle. All told we ran 59 offensive plays and got the minimum of what we could have wanted 11 times, (18.6% of the time). I’ve never seen that stat that bad. When we beat Colgate 65-0 to start the season, they were 16-41, (28.1%) on offensive plays. When Wagner asked for the second half to be played in 10 minute quarters last year, they were 10-28, (26.3%).
Our kicking game didn’t help. We won only 7 of 13 plays and gave up a touchdown on a botched field goal attempt. The Bulls won 18 of their 22 kicking plays. Another bad stat for SU: (SF) XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good.
The sad thing is that, aside from a two long TD passes they surrendered, the defense played well, certainly well enough to keep us in the game if the offense had been productive and if they and the kicking game had not produced horrendous big plays for USF. Our defense won 43 of 79 plays from scrimmage. But no one will ever remember. It will just be a 0-45 disaster to end the Babers era.
This was a -52 game (71-113), the worst of the Babers Era. Here are the most similar games:
2016 Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46 We lost 0-54
2016 Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49 We lost 14-45
2020 Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44 We lost 6-31
2022 Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47 We lost 24-41
2023 Syracuse 61 Florida State 116 = -55 We lost 3-41
Having the other team run 40-50 more successful plays than you did is not a formula for success.