Winning Plays - UNLV

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 13, SU 11, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, LV 21, SU 25, SU 16, SU 25, LV 25 = 344/11 = SU 31 with 756 yards to go, 57 more than UNLV.

KO: LV25, LV25, LV25, LV35, LV25, LV25, LV25,
Total: Syracuse 6 UNLV 1
P: 23 to LV 44, -13 to SU 9, Blocked for TD
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 3
FG: Good from 21
Total: Syracuse 1 UNLV 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 UNLV 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 12 UNLV 4

1r: 1, 9, 3TD, 7, 2, 1, 4, 3, 5, 21TD, 1, -5, -1, 2, 2, 6, 5. 1TD
Total: Syracuse 9 UNLV 9
1p: 5, 5, 7, 8, I, 7, I, 10, 3(15), I, I, I, I, 4, 5, 17, 7, I, 2
Total: Syracuse 10 UNLV 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 UNLV 18
2r: 1(5), 4(2), 39, 6, 3(1), I, 1(3), 14, 7, 26(5), 1(7), 3(4)
Total: Syracuse 8 UNLV 4
2p: 5(5), 31(9), 9TD, 5(4), 0, 5(3), I, 9(12), I, I, I, 0, 7(6), I, 0, ), 15(15), 10(11), 8(8), I, I, I, I, 9(8)
Total: Syracuse 11 UNLV 13
Second Down Total: Syracuse 19 UNLV 17
3r: 14(2), 0, 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 UNLV 1
3p: 11(4) I, I, 7(3),15, 5(3), I, 7(7), 6TD, 25, I, INT, 18(3), 9, 6TD
Total: Syracuse 10 UNLV 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 UNLV 6
4r: 3(1), 11(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 UNLV 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 UNLV 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 UNLV 14
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 31 UNLV 27
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 52 UNLV 41

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, -10, -5, -5, +5, +15, +15, -5, +15, +15, -15, -15, +12 Syracuse 7 UNLV 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 UNLV 50

Big Plays:31pass, 39pass, 26run, INT, 21runTD, 25pass (6)

Comments: 121 plays with the ball is almost the combined total for two teams in some games. The only downs we were dominant in were 3rd and 4th but that will usually win you games. 12 of the 14 penalties that weren’t tacked onto plays came when we had the ball – but we ‘won’ 7 of them.


When UNLV had the ball:

Drive Starts: LV 25, LV 25, LV 25, LV 44, SU 9, LV 35, LV 25, LV 25, LV 6, LV 25,, SU 25 = 401/11 = LV 36 with 699 yards to go, 57 less than Syracuse

KO: SU 11, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 14, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 7
P: 49 to SU 25, 41 to SU 13
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 2
FG: Good from 20, Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good,
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 16

1r: 4, 7, 1, 1, 42, -1, 3TD, 0, 2, 4, 1, 15, 13, 1, 0v
Total: Syracuse 7 UNLV 8
1p: I, 5, 53, 10, 11, 11, 13, 8, 5, 6, 3
Total: Syracuse 2 UNLV 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 UNLV 17
2r: 1, -9(s), 9(9), -3, 2(5), 3(7)
Total: Syracuse 5 UNLV 1
2p: 16(6), 5(3), I, 4(9), 6TD, 9TD, INT, 16(2), 3(6), 14(4), 9TD
Total: Syracuse 4 UNLV 7
Second Down Total: Syracuse 9 UNLV 8
3r: 4(6)
Total: Syracuse 1 UNLV 0
3p: I, -1(s), 8(5), 5(3),12(3), -3(s)
Total: Syracuse 3 UNLV 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 UNLV 3
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 UNLV 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 UNLV 9
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 9 UNLV 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 22 UNLV 28

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +11, -15 Syracuse 1 UNLV 1

Game total when UNLV had the ball: Syracuse 23 UNLV 45

Big Plays:42run, 53pass, -13 punt, blocked punt-TD (5)

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 94 UNLV 95

Comments:

First down is the easiest down to pass on but we need to do better than 2-9 against that.

You can’t get a game much closer than 94-95 in plays and 44-41 in score in overtime.

That makes it a -1 game. These are the closest games to that since the beginning of the Dino Babers Era in 2016:

2016 Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1 SU won 31-17
2017 Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1 SU won 27-24
2017 Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2 SU won 27-24
2018 Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2 SU lost in OT 37-44
2018 Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2 SU won in 2OT 40-37

Close games in plays tend to be close games in scores and we’re good at winning them.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 284/11 = S26/816, 237/9 = S26/663, 361/12 = SU30/839, 524/14 = SU 37/876, 344/11 = SU 31/756 TOTAL: 1,750/57 =S31 with 3,950 yards to go (291 less than the opposition – in one fewer possession).

KO: 7-0 + 5-1 + 4-0 + 6-1 + 6-1 = 28-3
P: 3-0 + 1-1+ 5-1 + 2-0 + 0-3 = 11-5
FG: 1-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 1-0 = 4-4
XP: 5-0 + 4-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 = 23-0
Kicking plays total: 16-0 + 11-3 + 13-1+ 14-4 + 12-4 = 66-12

1r: 7-10 + 5-8 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 9-9 = 39-40
1p: 8-6 + 14-7 + 7-11 + 11-11 + 10-9 = 50-44
First Down Total: 15-16 + 19-15 + 12-16 + 24-19 + 19-18 = 89-84
2r: 3-6 + 9-4 + 1-2 + 6-5 + 8-4 = 27-21
2p: 8-5 + 7-6 + 11-5 + 8-12 + 11-13 = 45-41
Second Down Total: 11-11 + 16-10 + 12-7 + 14-17 + 19-17 = 72-62
3r: 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-1 = 6-5
3p: 8-5 + 7-5 + 4-8 + 8-7 + 10-5 = 37-30
Third Down Total: 9-6 + 9-7 + 4-8 + 9-8 + 12-6 = 43-35
4r: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-0 = 5-0
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 = 1-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 2-0 = 6-1

Total on running plays: 12-17 + 18-14 + 6-7 + 20-14 + 21-14 = 77-66
Total on passing plays: 24-16 + 28-18 + 22-24 + 28-31 + 31-27 = 133-116
Total on plays from scrimmage: 36-33 + 46-32 + 28-31 + 48-45 + 52-41 = 210-182

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 7-5 = 8-14

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 52-34 + 57-37 + 41-36 + 63-51 + 71-50 = 284-208

Big plays: 6 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 6 = 33

Comments: Our passing has married the team but our running attack is getting better: 41-28 in the last two games. 3 big plays in 5 games is not an unusually large amount. We are shying away from throwing bombs because they require the pass protection to hold up long. Also, we aren’t getting big plays on defense due to lack of pressure and special teams. But 49-36 on third and fourth down will win a lot of games.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 241/11 = O22/859, 279/10 = O28/721, 310/12 = O26/890, 328/14 = O23/1,072, 401/11 = O36/699 TOTAL= 1,559/58 = O27 with 4,241 yards to go, 291 more than SU in 1 more possession.

KO: 0-6 + 0-5 + 0-5 + 2-1 + 0-7 = 2-24
P: 0-3 + 1-3 + 0-3 + 6-4 + 0-2 = 7-15
FG: 0-3 + 1-0 + 0-4 + 0-0 + 0-2 = 1-9
XP: 0-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-2 + 0-5 = 0-15
Kicking plays total: 0-14 + 2-12 + 0-14 + 8-7 + 0-16 = 10-63

1r: 8-13 + 6-4 + 8-9 + 11-1 + 7-8 = 40-35
1p: 7-8 + 7-9 + 8-7 + 2-5 + 2-9 = 26-38
First Down Total: 15-21 + 13-13 + 16-16 + 13-6 + 9-17 = 66-73
2r: 1-9 + 4-7 + 5-5 + 1-2 + 5-1 = 16-24
2p: 5-6 + 4-8 + 6-6 + 12-2 + 4-7 = 31-29
Second Down Total: 6-15 + 8-15 + 11-11 + 13-4 + 9-8 = 47-53
3r: 1-2 + 1-4 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 1-0 = 8-8
3p: 5-3 + 5-4 + 6-4 + 9-1 + 3-3 = 28-15
Third Down Total: 6-5 + 6-8 + 8-5 + 12-2 + 4-3 = 36-23
4r: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 2-1
4p: 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-2 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 2-4

Total on running plays: 10-24 + 12-15 + 15-16 + 16-4 + 13-9 = 66-68
Total on passing plays: 17-18 + 16-22 + 20-18 + 23-8 + 9-19 = 85-85
Total on plays from scrimmage: 27-42 + 28-37 + 35-34 + 39-12 + 22-28 = 151-153

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 3-1 + 1-7 + 2-1+ 1-1 = 8-13

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 28-59 + 33-50 + 36-55 + 49-20 + 23-45 = 169-229

Big Plays: 7 + 9 + 4 + 5 + 5 = 25

Overall Game Total: 80-93 + 90-87 + 77-91 + 112-71 + 94-95 = 453-437

Comments: We are 4-1 but we are blade-running. We’ve lost the plays in 3 of the 5 games. We need to improve to be a truly strong team. We’re showing sings in the running game and our run defense. But our pass defense was poor in the last game and our kicking game is a disaster.

Our opponents this year have attempted 10 field goals. They’ve made 9, (thank you, Georgia Tech), but keeping the other team out of the end zone has allowed us to go 3-1 while we struggle through these games.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS – The Fran Brown Era

2024
Ohio University 80-93 = -13
Georgia Tech 90-87 = +3
Stanford 77-91 = -14
Holy Cross 112-71 = +41
Nevada-Las Vegas 94-95 = -1
TOTAL: Syracuse: 453 Opponents 437 = +1
We have won 50.9% of the 890 plays, (Dino Babers won 48.8%) and 40% of the 5 games, based on winning plays, (Dino won 39.8%), The our team has achieved their goals on 16 more plays than we have, 3.20 per game.