SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 16, SU 25, SU 27 = 268/11 = SU 24 with 832 yards to go
KO: NC 25, NC 25
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 0
P: 39 to NC 20, 46 to NC 18, 40 to NC 5, 48 to NC 23, 31 to NC 17, 36 to NC 25
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 1
1r: 9, 4, 2, 0, 2, -1v, 4, 2, 11, 4, 22(p), 1, 2
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina 6
1p: 6, 0, I, 1(15), 13, 5(1), 5, 5, Interception
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina 10
2r: 5, 1TD, 8(8), 4(5), 0, 14(15), 3(8)
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 2
2p: I, -1, 7(12), 13, 13(4), 9(8), 8(25), I, 4(6), 11(9), 1(6), I
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina 7
3r: 4(1), 1(5), 0, 0, 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 3
3p: I, -7(s), 34(14), 18(2), Interception
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 North Carolina 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 North Carolina 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 North Carolina 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -4, -10 Syracuse 0 North Carolina 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 35 North Carolina 29
Big Plays (3): 34yd pass, Fumble, 22 yd run (p)
When North Carolina had the ball:
Drive Starts: NC 25, NC 20, NC 23, NC 5, NC 23, NC 25, NC 17, SU 36, NC 25, SU 26 = 301/10 = NC 30 with 699 yards to go.
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 8
P: Blocked but recovered by NC and returned for a first down, (per refs)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 1
FG: Good from 29, Good from 24, Good from 36, Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 4
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 17
1r: 0, 4(5), 9, 3, 4, 12, 4, 3, -1, -8(p), 9, 5, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina 7
1p: 7, I, I, 6, I, 3, 13, 6, I, 7, I, 17, 23TD, I, 5, 48, 1TD, 28, I, 5, 7, 9(25), 32, 18(8), 8, 9, 5, 6, -2, I
Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina 20
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina 27
2r: 9(3), 9, 3, 9(9), 6(3), 1TD, 6(1), 6(5), 6, 3(6), 7(7), 2, 4(2), 10(5), 3(4), 0, 8(5), 1
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 14
2p: 8, &(4), I, 6(7), 17, 11, I, -2(s), 18(6), I, I, 1, I, I
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina 20
3r: 17(1), 4(2), 3(1), 8(3), 7(3), 0, Fumble, 1(1), -2, -2
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 6
3p: -3(s), -6(p), 8(7), 15(12), I, 6(5), 13(16), 77TD, 9(2)
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina 27
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 North Carolina 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 North Carolina 58
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +8, -15, -5, +6 Syracuse 3 North Carolina 2
Game total when North Carolina had the ball: Syracuse 41 North Carolina 77
Big Plays (7): 23TD pass, 48yd pass, 28 yd pass, 32 yd pass, 77yd TD pass, Interception, Interception
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 North Carolina 106
Comment: My impression watching the game is that both our offense and our defense were totally overwhelmed. Actually, we won 35 plays to 29 when we had the ball. The problem was that we couldn’t consistently gain yardage or make big plays. We had some god plays but not a run of them except for that first drive of the second half. North Carolina, on the other hand could mover incrementally down the field, (not unlike Army, (except they could do it with passes as well as runs), and they had several explosive plays to boot. They also intercepted two passes and got huge breaks on that blocked punt and the tipped pass. As a result they had the ball for 97 plays and 37:16 to our 51 and 22:44.
And that’s why it made no sense to punt on 4th and 6 from the UNC 48 down by 23 with 18 minutes to go: we could not stop their offense. It didn’t matter what their field position was. We’d punted to their 5 earlier in the game and they put on a 95 yard drive to go. It was a Shaferesque decision. And, on this occasion they got the ball on the 17, so we only gained 31 yards of field position by punting.
People argue about whether you have to use the run to set up the pass or can you use the pass to set up the run. UNC had 28 first down plays in the first half and 22 of them were passes.
This was a -30 game, (76-106). These are the most similar games in the Dino Baber Era:
2016 Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 SU lost 9-28
2016 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 SU lost 20-35
2019 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 SU lost 20-63
2020 Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28 SU lost 13-16
2020 Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32 SU lost 29-36
2021 Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28 SU lost 14-31
2022 Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29 SU lost 9-19
2022 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32 SU lost 35-45
You can keep a game like this close if you make some big plays and get the breaks. What you can’t do is win them.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.
When Syracuse had the ball:
Drive Starts: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 16, SU 25, SU 27 = 268/11 = SU 24 with 832 yards to go
KO: NC 25, NC 25
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 0
P: 39 to NC 20, 46 to NC 18, 40 to NC 5, 48 to NC 23, 31 to NC 17, 36 to NC 25
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 1
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 1
1r: 9, 4, 2, 0, 2, -1v, 4, 2, 11, 4, 22(p), 1, 2
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina 6
1p: 6, 0, I, 1(15), 13, 5(1), 5, 5, Interception
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 4
First Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina 10
2r: 5, 1TD, 8(8), 4(5), 0, 14(15), 3(8)
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina 2
2p: I, -1, 7(12), 13, 13(4), 9(8), 8(25), I, 4(6), 11(9), 1(6), I
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina 7
3r: 4(1), 1(5), 0, 0, 3(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 3
3p: I, -7(s), 34(14), 18(2), Interception
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 North Carolina 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 13 North Carolina 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 North Carolina 24
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -4, -10 Syracuse 0 North Carolina 4
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 35 North Carolina 29
Big Plays (3): 34yd pass, Fumble, 22 yd run (p)
When North Carolina had the ball:
Drive Starts: NC 25, NC 20, NC 23, NC 5, NC 23, NC 25, NC 17, SU 36, NC 25, SU 26 = 301/10 = NC 30 with 699 yards to go.
KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 8
P: Blocked but recovered by NC and returned for a first down, (per refs)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 1
FG: Good from 29, Good from 24, Good from 36, Good from 31
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 4
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 17
1r: 0, 4(5), 9, 3, 4, 12, 4, 3, -1, -8(p), 9, 5, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 7 North Carolina 7
1p: 7, I, I, 6, I, 3, 13, 6, I, 7, I, 17, 23TD, I, 5, 48, 1TD, 28, I, 5, 7, 9(25), 32, 18(8), 8, 9, 5, 6, -2, I
Total: Syracuse 10 North Carolina 20
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina 27
2r: 9(3), 9, 3, 9(9), 6(3), 1TD, 6(1), 6(5), 6, 3(6), 7(7), 2, 4(2), 10(5), 3(4), 0, 8(5), 1
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 14
2p: 8, &(4), I, 6(7), 17, 11, I, -2(s), 18(6), I, I, 1, I, I
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 North Carolina 20
3r: 17(1), 4(2), 3(1), 8(3), 7(3), 0, Fumble, 1(1), -2, -2
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 6
3p: -3(s), -6(p), 8(7), 15(12), I, 6(5), 13(16), 77TD, 9(2)
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina 11
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina 0
4p: I
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina 27
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 North Carolina 31
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 38 North Carolina 58
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +8, -15, -5, +6 Syracuse 3 North Carolina 2
Game total when North Carolina had the ball: Syracuse 41 North Carolina 77
Big Plays (7): 23TD pass, 48yd pass, 28 yd pass, 32 yd pass, 77yd TD pass, Interception, Interception
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 76 North Carolina 106
Comment: My impression watching the game is that both our offense and our defense were totally overwhelmed. Actually, we won 35 plays to 29 when we had the ball. The problem was that we couldn’t consistently gain yardage or make big plays. We had some god plays but not a run of them except for that first drive of the second half. North Carolina, on the other hand could mover incrementally down the field, (not unlike Army, (except they could do it with passes as well as runs), and they had several explosive plays to boot. They also intercepted two passes and got huge breaks on that blocked punt and the tipped pass. As a result they had the ball for 97 plays and 37:16 to our 51 and 22:44.
And that’s why it made no sense to punt on 4th and 6 from the UNC 48 down by 23 with 18 minutes to go: we could not stop their offense. It didn’t matter what their field position was. We’d punted to their 5 earlier in the game and they put on a 95 yard drive to go. It was a Shaferesque decision. And, on this occasion they got the ball on the 17, so we only gained 31 yards of field position by punting.
People argue about whether you have to use the run to set up the pass or can you use the pass to set up the run. UNC had 28 first down plays in the first half and 22 of them were passes.
This was a -30 game, (76-106). These are the most similar games in the Dino Baber Era:
2016 Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29 SU lost 9-28
2016 Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32 SU lost 20-35
2019 Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30 SU lost 20-63
2020 Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28 SU lost 13-16
2020 Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32 SU lost 29-36
2021 Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28 SU lost 14-31
2022 Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29 SU lost 9-19
2022 Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32 SU lost 35-45
You can keep a game like this close if you make some big plays and get the breaks. What you can’t do is win them.