Winning Plays: Wake Forest

[SWC75]

Once again I’m going to chart our football games according to which team “won” each play. The idea is that you ask yourself what was the minimum acceptable result the team with the ball wanted and then, if they achieved at least that result, they “won” the play. If they didn’t, the other team “won” the play. I break down the result sby the circumstances of the play: first down ruins, first down passes, same for second down, third down and fourth down. Then I look at each kicking play, penalties, turnovers, etc. The result is a total that shows if a team won by dominating play after play or by getting the big plays- turnovers, long gains, kick returns, blocked kicks, etc. it gives you a view of how the game was physically. It also gives you an idea of what areas we need to improve our recruiting. If we are losing a majority of the plays, look to the line of scrimmage. If we are not getting the big plays, look to the playmakers and the coach’s philosophy. The break-out allows us to see how we did in certain situations, such as first downs runs or passes.

Here is the scoring system I’ve been using: On a play from scrimmage, the team with the ball is trying to either get a first down or a touchdown, (the latter being the only goal if it is a “goal to go” situation). If they get 1/3 of the way to those goals, (rounding the goal up), on first down they have “won the play because if they gained that amount of yardage three times in a row, they’d keep the ball for another series of down or they’d score. On second down they want to get halfway to their goal. On third or fourth down, they want to obtain the goal because if they don’t, they’d have to surrender the ball or settle for a lesser goal, (a field goal instead of a touchdown). If the offense doesn’t win the play, then the defense won the play.

On place kicks, it’s simple: if the kicking team scored the field the field goal or extra point, they won the play. On kick-offs, since touchbacks go out to the 25, any kickoff that ends with the receiving team having the ball no farther in than the 25 yards line is a win for the kicking team. Anything beyond that is a win for the receiving team. On a punt, the touchback comes out to the 20 so any punt that results in the other team getting the ball no further rout than their 20 is a win for the punting team. Also, any punt that gains the kicking at least 40 yards in field positon is a win for them. I’m not interested in how far the punt travels. I’m interested in where the other team will star their next play. Kick-offs after a safety will be judged as if they were punts. You want to get the ball at least a net 40 yards downfield. Ifg it’s within the 25, you obviously did that.

Turnovers are, obviously wins for the defense. This year I’ve decided to list them under the circumstances of the play, that is if it was a second down running play and there is a fumble, I’ll put “fumble” under “2R”, rather than listing it on a separate line under turnovers. It will be a lost play of the offense counted under second down running plays.

Sacks are counted as passing plays. “Victory” plays are wins for the team with the ball because they are just trying to get the clock moving so it will run out.

Penalties will be counted as plays under the circumstances of the play. If they negate a play or are tacked onto it, it’s part of the result of the play. A gain negated by an offside penalty is a -5 play. A 20 yard run turned into a 10 yard loss by a clip is a -10 play7. If you jump offside on second down and they blow the play dead, I’ll assume it was a passing play if it was at least second and five unless the play-by play says otherwise. Within 5 yards, I’ll assume it was a running play. If it was first down, I’ll assume a run, third or fourth down I’ll assume a pass, again unless it says otherwise. If it was a penalty not associated with a play, (unsportsmanlike conduct, etc. I’ll list it using the same assumptions about down and distance.

Glossary:

KICKS
KO = Kickoffs I’ll just list where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
P = Punts. I’ll list the net distance and where the ball wound up, unless it was a TD or turnover.
FG= Field Goal attempts. I’ll list the distance and ‘G’ (good) or ‘NG” (no good)
XP= Extra Points. Just G or NG unless it’s not from the normal distance due to a penalty. The penalty will be listed as a separate attempt (-5, -10, -15, etc) and lost paly for the kicking team.

SCRIMMAGE PLAYS
I’ll list the yardage gained or lost and put the yards needed for a first down or touchdown in parenthesis if other than 10, unless there is no gain or a loss, which would be a win for the defesne regardless of the yardage needed..
1r = First down rushing play.
1p= First down passing play.
Same for second down, (2r, 2p), third down (3r,3p) and fourth down (4r,4p)
I = Incomplete pass
INT = interception
FUM = fumble
TD = touchdown
V= “Victory” play

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF25, WF33, WF30
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 2
P: 33(WF10), 50(WF17), 39(WF40), 39(WF27), 28(WF10)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
FG: G(35), G(39), G(20)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 0
XP: G, G
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 4

1r 3, 7, 1, 34, 3, 6, -5P, 1, -2, 1, 9, 3, -3, 6, 11, 7, 1, 2, 0, -5P, -2V
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 13
1p 9, 9, +15p, I, 89td, 23
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 1
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Wake Forest 14
2r 4(1), 17(1), 1(7), -1, 9(7), -4, -2, 3(9), 5(1), 9(4), 4(3), 11(8)
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 4
2p 12(3), 5(9), -7S, 53TD, I, I
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 7
3r 3(4), 1(6), 8(9), 3(6)
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 4
3p -11S, I, I, I, 21
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 8
4r -5P
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
4p none
Total: none
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1

Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 24 Wake Forest 30

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 37 Wake Forest 34


When WAKE FOREST had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 30, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 3
P: 43 (SU11), 35(SU11), 41(SU15), 49(SU16), 31(WF37)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4
FG: G(27), NG(50)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
XP: G, G
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 2

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 10

1r 0, 0, -1, 9, 13, -2, -1, 2, 0, 1, 3, -2, 7, 6, 8
Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 5
1p 23, 40TD, INT, -4, I, 8, 23, -8S, 1, 9, -7P, -3S, +15P, I, I, I, -10S, 27, INT
Total: Syracuse 12 Wake Forest 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 22 Wake Forest 12
2r 0, 3(1), 6TD, 3(4), 1(2), 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 4
2p 10, 3(11), 9(12), 24(14), 39, 18(8), 9, 8(9), 11(7), 7(2), 7(12), 5(3), 4(18), 10(9), I, I, I, 8, 15(20)
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 14
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 18
3r -5P, 0, 2(1), 3(1), 1(1), 2(1), 8(12)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 4
3p 11, INT, 9(8), I, -5, 4(19), 16(13), -9S, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 8
4r -5P
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 0
4p -7P, 13(5)
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1

Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Wake Forest 39

Game total when WAKE FOREST had the ball: Syracuse 46 Wake Forest 49

OVERALL GAME TOTAL: Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83

Comments: We again had trouble running the ball on first down (8-13) but our first down passes had tremendous results (an 89 yard T^D, a 23 yarder, two 9s and a 15 yard interference penalty). We were awful on third down 1-8, which is why we had that long stretch in the middle of the game where it looked like we were going to lose: we kept going three and out. Our defense was excellent on first down against both the run and the pass (total: 22-12). We were actually good on third down passes, (8-4). But we were dreadful on se3cond down passes, losing 14 of 19 plays. We gave up second won passes of 10, 9, 24, 39, 18, 9, 8, 11, 7, 7, 10, 8 and 15 yards. Those passes produced 7 first downs.

 

[SWC75]

SEASON TOTALS

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 10 Opponent 3
P: Syracuse 7 Opponent 3
FG: Syracuse 4 Opponent 1
XP: Syracuse 8 Opponent 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 29 Opponent 7

1r Syracuse 21 Opponent 29
1p Syracuse 7 Opponent 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 28 Opponent 35
2r Syracuse20 Opponent 10
2p Syracuse 5 Opponent 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 25 Opponent 16
3r Syracuse 6 Opponent 8
3p Syracuse 6 Opponent 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 12 Opponent 16
4r Syracuse 1 Opponent 2
4p Syracuse 0 Opponent 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Opponent 3

Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 66 Opponent 68

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 95 Opponent 75

When THE OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: Syracuse 2 Opponent4
P: Syracuse 4 Opponent 10
FG: Syracuse 1 Opponent 1
XP: Syracuse 0 Opponent 2

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 7 Opponent 17
1r Syracuse 21 Opponent 8
1p Syracuse 13 Opponent 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 34 Opponent 16
2r Syracuse 8 Opponent 4
2p Syracuse 12 Opponent 16
Second Down Total: Syracuse 20 Opponent 20
3r Syracuse 5 Opponent 4
3p Syracuse 16 Opponent 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 21 Opponent 9
4r Syracuse 3 Opponent 1
4p Syracuse 1 Opponent 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse4 Opponent 2

Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 77 Opponent 46

Game total when our OPPONENT had the ball: Syracuse 84 Opponent 83

Overall game total: Syracuse 179 Opponent 138

Comments: People focus on third down plays but really, the most important down in any possession is first down: that sets everything else up. We want to “run downhill” this year but we’ve ‘lost’ 29 of 50 first down rushes, including 23 plays that got us 2 yards or less and forced us into a passing situation. Our second down rushes have actually been more successful, (perhaps because they were expecting us to pass), 20 success plays out of 30. Defensively, we’ve done a great job on first down runs, (21-8) and first downs over-all (34-16). We’ve also been good on third down (21-9). It’s second down (20-20) and especially second down passes (12-16) that has bene the problem. The kicking game is about where it needs to be.

 

[SWC75]

Historical Winning Plays


(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 55
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
TOTAL: Syracuse 179 Opponents 138

 

[ThruWayWest]

SEASON TOTALS

Comments: People focus on third down plays but really, the most important down in any possession is first down: that sets everything else up. We want to “run downhill” this year but we’ve ‘lost’ 29 of 50 first down rushes, including 23 plays that got us 2 yards or less and forced us into a passing situation. Our second down rushes have actually been more successful, (perhaps because they were expecting us to pass), 20 success plays out of 30. Defensively, we’ve done a great job on first down runs, (21-8) and first downs over-all (34-16). We’ve also been good on third down (21-9). It’s second down (20-20) and especially second down passes (12-16) that has bene the problem. The kicking game is about where it needs to be.

Very interesting. I am one of those third down guys but it does make sense that first down is the most important. Like with many of the statistical analysis things it makes total sense when you really break it down. The stats about first down running might suggest that we should mix in some more passing on first down to keep the defenses honest? Perhaps as Dungey gains more experience Lester will incorporate this into our offense moving forward.