Winning Plays - Western Michigan

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and turnovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU28, 50, SU14, SU35, SU27, SU1, SU26, SU11, WM49, SU10, SU11, SU37 = 301/12 = SU25 with 899 yards to go.

KO: WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM30(p)
Total: Syracuse 6 Western Michigan 1
P: 42 to WM 6, 46 to WM 41, 41 to WM 34, 55 to WM 30
Total: Syracuse 4 Western Michigan 0
FG: Good from 36, Good from 33
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 Western Michigan 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 18 Western Michigan 1

1r: 9, 1TD, -1, 1, 4, 1TD, 7, 2TD, 2, 0, -2, 1, -1, 3, 3, 3, 2, -1(v)
Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 11
1p: I, I, 1, 4, I, 31P, 86TD, I, 3(15), 48, I, I, 4, I, 9, 13
Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 9
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Western Michigan 20
2r: 6(1), 21(p)(11), 18TD, 3(6), 1, 22(1), 3(9), 2(4), 1(2), 2(7), 22(8)
Total: Syracuse 8 Western Michigan 3
2p: 10, 7(10), 16(11), I, 3, 3, I, 3, 8(3), 13(6), I, -3(s), I, -1(s)
Total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Western Michigan 12
3r: 11(6), 1(2), 6(5)
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 1
3p: 3(3), I, 15(7), 17(3), 19(7), 20(8), 7(13), 8(16), I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Western Michigan 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 7 Western Michigan 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Western Michigan 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Western Michigan 23
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Western Michigan 38

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +15, -5, +15, -5, -5, +15, +14, -4 Syracuse 4 Western Michigan 4

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 56 Western Michigan 43

Big Plays (8): 31(p) pass to Jones, 21(p) Allen run, 86TD pass to Brown, 48 pass to Hatcher, 84 Interception return by Simmons, 20 pass to Hatcher, 22 run by Price, 22yds run by Daniels


When Western Michigan had the ball:

Drive Starts: WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM25, WM6, WM41, WM30, WM34, WM30 = 316/12 = WM26 with 884 yards to go

KO: SU28, SU26
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 0
P: 57 to SU14(p), 24 to SU35, 45 to SU 27, 43 to SU 1, 43 to SU 11, 50 to SU10(p)
Total: Syracuse 1 Western Michigan 5
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Western Michigan 6

1r: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 2 -1
Total: Syracuse 13 Western Michigan 1
1p: 8, 4, 10, 4, 3, I, I, -9(s), I, I, 4, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Western Michigan 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 19 Western Michigan 6
2r: 75TD, 2(2), 5, 5(6), 3(7), 1(8)
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 4
2p: I, -6(5), 7(6), -3, -13(s), 19, 15, I, 3(7), I, 7(8), I, 6(8), 4(6), I, 6(7), 6(6), I, 7(11)
Total: Syracuse 9 Western Michigan 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Western Michigan 14
3r: 5(12), 2(4), 5(2)
Total: Syracuse 2 Western Michigan 1
3p: I, 15(31), I, 2(1), 10(23), 13, I, 8, 6(1), -5(s), 10(2), 19(9), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Western Michigan 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 13 Western Michigan 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Western Michigan 0
4p: 5(2), INTERCEPTION 84TD, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Western Michigan 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 4 Western Michigan 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 17 Western Michigan 6
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 30 Western Michigan 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 47 Western Michigan 27

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -15, -5, -5 Syracuse 3 Western Michigan 0

Game total when Western Michigan had the ball: Syracuse 53 Western Michigan 33

Big Plays (3): 75TD, The Alford drop, 34 pass to Womack

Overall game total: Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76

Comments: None of our last 11 first down runs went more than 3 yards, although one was for a TD and another the ‘victory’ play. Fortunately 11 second down runs gained 101 yards. Our first half passing on all downs was, of course, superb. And our kicking game has been both strong and amazingly consistent. We still haven’t seen Denaburg line up a long one or kick a wet ball.

It’s our defense that has really been amazing. We stuffed 13 of their 14 first down runs. The first four were no gain. Those 14 plays gained 16 yards. They had one second down run gain 75 yards. The others gained 16.

But its big plays that blow games like this open. We had 8 to their three and I decided to give them Alford’s drop as one of theirs.

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts: 564/14 = SU 40 with 836 to go; 301/12 = SU 25 with 899 to go

KO: 11-0 + 6-1 = 17-1
P: 1-0 + 4-0 = 5-0
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 = 3-0
XP: 8-1 + 6-0 = 14-1
Kicking plays total: 21-1 + 18-1 = 39-2

1r: 14-14 + 7-11 = 21-25
1p: 11-3 + 7-9 = 18-12
First Down Total: 25-17 + 14-20 = 39-37
2r: 12-5 + 8-3 = 20-8
2p: 7-5 + 5-9 = 12-14
Second Down Total: 19-10 + 13-12 = 32-22
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 = 6-3
3p: 7-4 + 5-5 = 12-9
Third Down Total: 11-6 + 7-6 = 18-12
4r: 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-1
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 0-0 = 0-1

Total on running plays: 30-22 + 17-15 = 47-37
Total on passing plays: 25-12 + 17-23 = 42-35
Total on plays from scrimmage: 55-34 + 34-38 = 89-72

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-2, 4-4 = 4-6

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 76-37 + 56-43 = 132-80

Big Plays: 12 + 8 = 20

When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts: 399/16 = C25 with 1,201 yards to go; 316/12 = WM26 with 884 to go

KO: 0-1 + 2-0 = 2-1
P: 3-6 + 1-5 = 4-11
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
XP: 0-0 + 0-1 = 0-1
Kicking plays total: 3-7 + 3-6 = 6-13

1r: 14-6 + 13-1 = 27-7
1p: 1-1 + 6-5 = 7-6
First Down Total: 15-7 + 19-6 = 34-13
2r: 3-3 + 2-4 = 5-7
2p: 9-3 + 9-10 = 18-13
Second Down Total: 12-6
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 = 6-3
3p: 9-1 + 11-5 = 20-6
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 13-6 = 26-9
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 = 0-0
4p: 1-0 + 4-1 = 4-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 4-1 = 5-1

Total on running plays: 21-11 + 17-6 = 38-17
Total on passing plays: 20-5 + 30-21 = 50-26
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-16 + 47-27 = 88-43

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 3-0 = 9-2

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 51-25 + 53-33 = 104-58

Big Plays: 4 + 3 = 7

Overall Game Total: 127-62 + 109-76 = 236-138

Comments: We’ve kicked the ball 41 times and got what we wanted out of it 39 times. The other two were the botched extra point vs. Colgate and a kickoff that wasn’t returned but we were offside so they put it on the 30 instead of the 25.

We’ve had two dominating wins but are 21-25 in first down runs. That isn’t dominating. But 20-8 is. That was sour rate of winning second down runs. I guess the greater threat of a pass on second down loosened up the defense. Where we are really dominating is on defense: 27-7 on first down runs. We’re also pretty good at third down passes, 20-6. Those are two very good downs to dominate.

If we keep up a ratio of 20 big plays to 7, nobody is beating us.

This was a +33 game in terms of winning plays, (109-76) Here are the games in the Babers Era closest to that:
2021 Albany 103-69 = +34
2018 Florida State 113-77 = +36
2018 West Virginia 116-79 = +37
2019 Duke 107-78 = +29
2022 Connecticut 96-59 = +37

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41
Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32
Syracuse 107 Boston College 79 = +28
Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We ‘won’ 7 of 13 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,109 opponents 1,103 = +6

2023
Syracuse 127 Colgate 62 = +65
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76 = +33 We’ve won 2 of 2 games.
TOTAL: Syracuse 236 Opponents 138 = +98
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 7,987 plays, (49.1%) and 34 games, (38.6%). The opposition has won 8,296 plays and 54 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 309 more plays than we have in 88 games, an average of 3.5 plays a game.