Winning Plays

[SWC75]

Some years ago, (actually it was 1988, I just looked it up), I watched a game between South Carolina and Florida State. The Seminoles were at the height of their power at this time. The Gamecocks, as they always seem to be, were a wannabe. But they actually had the same record coming into this game, 7-1 and it figured to be a competitive game. I recall the eastern USC really put on a show, darkening the stadium and filling it with smoke and then putting a searchlight on the tunnel through which the Gamecock players would charge onto the field. They played the theme from “Star Wars”. No team ever seemed so pumped up to play a football game.

What followed was the most one-sided game I’ve seen. Florida State won, 59-0. I’ve seen other games with score like that, (we’ve lost a couple), but those games were characterized by big plays by the winning tram and ill-timed blunders by the losers. What struck me about this game was that virtually every play was “won” by the winning team and “lost” by the losing team. By that I mean that if you decided before a play what the minimum each team wanted to accomplish- or prevent the other team from accomplishing- on that play, which team got what they wanted? Florida State got a significant gain on just about every play and never seemed to surrender the ball until they had scored. South Carolina seemed completely unable to run a successful play and was three and out over and over again. Nobody was playing “Star Wars” at the end of that. For Gamecock fans, Darth Vadar had triumphed.

It’s always been in the back of my mind that one way to analyze a game would be to determine who “won” each play and total that up. If the results didn’t parallel the score, that would be an indication that the teams were physically competitive most of the time but that big plays- long plays or kick returns, turnovers, etc. had determined the outcome. Also, as in other sports, it not just what you do but when you do it that counts. But if the plays won and lost were decidedly different, it would mean that one team wasn’t physically able to compete with the other team and that was the difference between them. You could also use this method to look at how successful or unsuccessful a team was in certain situations, such as 1st down runs vs. 1st down passes, etc. Doug Marrone last night said that the team’s goal this year wasn’t anything as large as winning the conference: the wanted to win each play then each series and let the greater goals take care of themselves. That makes this type of analysis particularly relevant.

So what is a “winning” play? My thinking is this:

On first down, the offense would like to get at least a third of the way to a first down, such that if they got a similar gain one second and then on third down, they will get a first down and be able to retain the ball. On 1st and 10, they want at least 4 yards. If it’s first and 15, they want at least 5 yards. If it’s first and goal from the 6, they want at least 2 yards. They’d like more, but that set a minimum figure. On second down, they want to get at least halfway to a first down. On third or fourth down, they want to get the first down. The exception to this is the “victory” play. If a team is just running out the clock at the end of a game or half and they lose two yards, (the normal amount), that’s a ‘win’ for the offense because their only goal is to maintain possession until the clock runs out and they did that.


Obviously any scoring play is a “win” for the team that scored. Any turnover is a win for the team that gets the ball. If a penalty is part of the play- it doesn’t negate it and isn’t a dead ball foul- I just include the result of the penalty in the result of the play, which is then evaluated by the criteria above. I created a separate category for penalties that negate the play or are dead ball fouls. They are “losses” for the penalized team and wins for the other team.

A successful pace kick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful one- a miss or a block- is a win for the defenders. For kick-offs, if the receiving team starts it’s possession from their own 20 or closer to their goal, that’s a win for the kicking team. Beyond that is a win for the receiving team. On a punt, I use the same criteria with the added stipulation that any punt that results in the other team taking possession at least 40 yards downfield is also a win for the kicking team.

Here is my analysis of last year’s games using this method, using the “play-by-play pages on SU Athletics.com and ESPN.

 

[SWC75]

The September Games:

WAKE FOREST

When Syracuse had the ball:
On first down we ran the ball 16 times and ’won’ the play 6 of them. That’s 6-10.
We passed the ball 11 times and also won 6 of those plays. That’s 6-5.
On second down we ran the ball 11 times and won 6 plays. That’s 6-5.
We passed the ball 8 times and won 2 plays. That’s 2-6.
On third down, we ran the ball twice and won the play once. That’s 1-1.
We passed the ball 9 times and won 5 times. That’s 5-4.
There were no fourth quarter plays.
That’s a total of 26 wins and 31 losses for SU on it’s offensive plays.

On our 5 kick-offs, we won once. 1-4.
On our 7 punts, we won 5 times. 5-2
We missed our one field goal attempt. 0-1.
We made all five of our extra points, including a two point conversion. 5-0
When we were kicking the ball we had a total of 11 wins and 7 losses.

Both teams had 6 penalties that were not part of the play result. 6-6.
Both teams had one turnover. 1-1.
That’s 7-7 on penalties and turnovers.

When Wake Forest had the ball:
On first down, they ran the ball 19 times and won 7 plays. 12-7, (Syracuse‘ score always first).
They passed 16 times and won 8 of them. 8-8.
On second down, they ran 14 times and won 5 plays. 9-5.
They passed the ball 12 times and won 6. 6-6.
On third down, they ran the ball 5 times and won once. 4-1.
They passed the ball 13 times and won 6. 7-6.
On fourth down they ran the ball twice and got the first down both times. 0-2.
They didn’t pass on fourth down.
On Wake Forest’s plays from scrimmage we won 46 and lost 35.

They kicked off 7 times and we won 5 of them. 5-2.
They punted 4 times and we won all of them. 4-0.
They made 3 of 4 field goals. 1-3.
They made 2 of 3 extra points. 1-2.
When they were kicking the ball we won 11 and lost 7.

By my assessment, we won 101 plays and lost 87. We won the game 36 points to 29 in overtime. We weren’t especially effective on offense until the later stages of the game. Our defense was on the field a lot but gave up ground grudgingly. We won the kicking game on both ends and the penalties and turnovers came out eve. They had a 37 yard pass play and scoring passes of 22 and 60 yards. We had a 53 yard TD run by Bailey and a 20 yard TD pass from Nassib to Provo and another 21 yard pass to Lemon. Most of the scores were on long drives. Basically the defense, after some early problems with the pass, hung in there until the offense got it going.

RHODE ISLAND

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 3-5
1st down pass 17-4
2nd down run 4-2
2nd down pass 5-6
3rd down run 2-5
3rd down pass 1-4
4th down run 0-1
4th down pass 2-0
Total: 34-27

SI kicking:
Kick-offs 0-4
Punts 2-3
Field Goals 0-0
Extra Points 3-0
Total: 5-7

Penalties: 4-2 (two against us, 4 against them)
Turnovers: 2-1 (they had 2, we had 1)
Total: 6-3

When RI had the ball:
1st down run 9-4
1st down pass 9-4
2nd down run 8-2
2nd down pass 5-6
3rd down run 3-4
3rd down pass 6-1
4th down run 0-1
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 40-23

RI kicking:
Kick-offs 2-1
Punts 4-2
Field goals 1-0
Extra points 0-2

Total: 7-5
We won 92 plays. Rhode Island won 65 plays. That surprised me as it was only a 21-14 game. We could never quite put this team away. They had a 26 yard touchdown run. Nassib had a 21 yard pass to Graham and a 20 yarder to Lemon. That was it as far as “big“ plays. We killed them on first down passes, (17-4) but were otherwise 17-24 on offensive plays.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 4-6
1st down pass 10-4
2nd down run 2-5
2nd down pass 5-6
3rd down run 1-1
3rd down pass 7-6
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-1
Total: 29-29

SU kicking
Kick-offs 1-3
Punts 2-3
Field goals 1-0
Extra points 3-0
Total: 7-6
Penalties: 4-4
Turnovers 1-1
Total: 5-5

When USC had the ball:
1st down run 7-6
1st down pass 9-9
2nd down run 4-6
2nd down pass 4-9
3rd down run 1-4
3rd down pass 3-6
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 28-40

USC kicking
Kick-offs 4-3
Punts 1-1
Field Goals 0-3
Extra Points 0-5
Total: 6-10

We won 75 plays. They won 90. We weren’t physically overwhelmed in this game. We basically lost it on their second and third down passes (7-15). They had scoring passes of 31, 44 and 43 yards and a couple more 20 yarders. They also had a 43 yard run. Nassib had a 20 yard pass to Bailey and 25 and 33 yarders to Provo. Alec Lemon passed to Van Chew for 28 yards and a score. Nassib completed his first 11 passes, running his streak to 22 in a row, starting in the Rhode Island game. But in the end, our offense just didn’t have the “explosiveness” the Trojans possessed.

TOLEDO

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 11-9
1st down pass 3-3
2nd down run 7-5
2nd down pass 5-5
3rd down run 4-3
3rd down pass 3-6
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 1-1
Total: 34-32

SU kicking
Kickoffs 1-6
Punts 3-1
Field Goals 4-0
Extra Points 3-0 (officially)
Total: 11-7

Penalties: 1-3
Turnovers: 1-1
Total: 2-4

When Toledo had the ball:
1st down run 11-4
1st down pass 4-12
2nd down run 6-6
2nd down pass 9-6
3rd down run 3-5
3rd down pass 6-4
4th down run 1-1
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 40-38

Toledo kicking
Kick-offs 5-0
Punts 4-1
Field Goals 0-3
Extra Points 0-3
Total: 9-7

This was as close as it gets: an overtime game with a controversial call on an extra point. It showed in the plays: we won 96. They won 88. We won two more offensive plays and two more defensive plays than they did. Most of the margin was in our kicks but if that call had been made correctly, things might have wound up differently. There were not a lot of long plays in this game. Eric Page caught a 42 yard pass. Nassib had a 24 yard pass to Chew. The most remarkable thing was Toledo’s 21 play 10 ½ minute drive to open the game after we’d deferred to them. This was the game for which Nathaniel Hackett announced “We’re going to play Doug Marrone football- we’re going to run the ball! And that’s what they did. In the previous two games we’d passed the ball 35 times on 1srt down and gotten 27 successful plays out of it. We’d run the 19 times and gotten 7 good plays In this game, we ran the ball 20 times on first won and won 11 of them. We only passed the ball 6 times and won three of them. We continued this trend for three more games ,then went back to passing more on first down. From Toledo through West Virginia, the mix was 78 runs and 38 passes, winning 40 of the running plays and 17 of the passing plays. But we won three of those four games.

 

[SWC75]

The October Games:

RUTGERS

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 8-7
1st down pass 4-7
2nd down run 6-3
2nd down pass 3-6
3rd down run 0-3
3rd down pass 5-7
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 26-33

SU kicking
Kickoffs 0-3
Punts 2-3
Field Goals 1-2
Extra Points 1-1 (officially)
Total: 4-9

Penalties: 8-7
Turnovers: 4-5
Total: 12-12 (a very sloppy game)

When Rutgers had the ball:
1st down run 13-7
1st down pass 12-7
2nd down run 4-5
2nd down pass 14-7
3rd down run 3-2
3rd down pass 10-5
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-1
Total: 56-34

Rutgers kicking
Kickoffs 2-2
Punts 0-4
Field Goals 3-4
Extra Points 0-1
Total: 5-11

We played very well on defense in this game, (56-34), not very well on offense (26-33) and badly in the kicking game(9-20). The penalties and turnovers made it a wild game. The biggest play was a defensive play, Dyshawn Davis’ big hit leading to a 66 yard fumble return by Ri’Shard Anderson. Ryan Nassib found Alec Lemon for 29 yards and Dorian Graham for 30. Antwon Bailey has a 36 yard run. But this game was about bad plays, not good ones. Plays were 103-99 overall.

TULANE

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 10-9
1st down pass 5-8
2nd down run 8-7
2nd down pass 3-9
3rd down run 3-1
3rd down pass 5-6
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 34-40

SU kicking
Kickoffs 1-4
Punts 2-4
Field Goals 2-0
Extra Points 4-0 (officially)
Total: 9-8

Penalties: 4-3
Turnovers: 2-0
Total: 6-3

When Tulane had the ball:
1st down run 6-9
1st down pass 2-12
2nd down run 5-2
2nd down pass 2-6
3rd down run 3-2
3rd down pass 4-3
4th down run 0-1
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 22-38

Tulane kicking
Kickoffs 6-0
Punts 1-3
Field Goals 1-3
Extra Points 0-4
Total: 8-10

This was a terrible defensive performance against a terrible team. Tulane was 97th in the country in yards gained and 105th in scoring. They averaged 214 yard per game passing, 340 passing yards and 21 points per game. Against us the passed for 355 yards, gained 471 and scored 34 points. We gave up a 40 TD yard run and pass plays of 27, 35, 60, 37 and 58 yards. Ridiculous. We had a 79 yard kickoff return, a 26 yard pass, a 21 yard run, and 21, 29 and a 26 yard pass. Overall they won 99 plays to only 79 for us. Our worst performance of the year, even if we pulled it out in the end.

WEST VIRGINIA

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 11-13
1st down pass 5-3
2nd down run 4-5
2nd down pass 10-7
3rd down run 3-2
3rd down pass 9-2
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 42-32

SU kicking
Kickoffs 1-7
Punts 1-3
Field Goals 0-0
Extra Points 7-0
Total: 9-10
Penalties: 4-2
Turnovers: 2-0
Total: 6-2

When West Virginia had the ball:
1st down run 3-6
1st down pass 9-10
2nd down run 3-4
2nd down pass 7-6
3rd down run 3-1
3rd down pass 3-4
4th down run 0-1
4th down pass 1-0
Total: 29-32

West Virginia kicking
Kickoffs 3-2
Punts 0-3
Field Goals 0-1
Extra Points 1-2
Total: 4-8

After struggling to beat a lousy team, we dominated one of the better teams in the country. But we really didn’t dominate in terms of plays won (90-84). The thing that jumps out of me is our success passing on second and third down, (19-9). They were in a defensive alignment that wasn’t the best idea against our type of passing attack. We scored on a 29 yard pass to Stevens and set up another with a 24 yarder to Provo. Antwon Bailey also had a 50 yard run. West Virginia countered with pass plays of 64, 43 and 25 yards which produced two scores. But the 64 yarder was negated by the play of the game, Dorian Graham‘s 98 yard kick-off return.

LOUISVILLE

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 5-5
1st down pass 3-10
2nd down run 1-6
2nd down pass 6-7
3rd down run 3-1
3rd down pass 1-10
4th down run 2-1
4th down pass 1-1
Total: 22-41

SU kicking
Kickoffs 2-1
Punts 3-5
Field Goals 1-0
Extra Points 1-0
Total: 7-6

Penalties 7-5
Turnovers 1-0
Total: 8-5

When Louisville had the ball:
1st down run 10-8
1st down pass 4-3
2nd down run 5-4
2nd down pass 6-4
3rd down run 0-1
3rd down pass 8-3
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 33-23

Louisville kicking
Kickoffs 3-2
Punts 0-3
Field Goals 0-1
Extra Points 1-2
Total: 4-8

We played well on defense and the kicking game was a wash. We lost this game on offense. We couldn’t get anything going in this game. We lost 41 of 63 offensive plays. The rest of the game was 52-42 (total 74-83). Louisville had the big plays, a 44 yard pass, a 42 yard TD pass and a 61 yard run. Antwon Bailey had a couple of 29 yard runs and a 24 yarder. But it wasn’t enough. Our third down passing was an abysmal 1-10.

 

[SWC75]

The November games:

CONNECTICUT

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 5-9
1st down pass 9-8
2nd down run 3-4
2nd down pass 13-3
3rd down run 4-2
3rd down pass 3-5
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 1-1
Total: 38-32

SU kicking
Kickoffs 0-4
Punts 2-3
Field Goals 0-1
Extra Points 3-0
Total: 5-8

Penalties: 2-3
Turnovers: 3-4
Total: 5-7

When UCONN had the ball:
1st down run 13-11
1st down pass 4-1
2nd down run 3-10
2nd down pass 4-3
3rd down run 4-0
3rd down pass 1-3
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 29-28

UCONN kicking
Kickoffs 5-2
Punts 2-2
Field Goals 0-3
Extra Points 0-4
Total: 7-11

Our offense got better and the defense wasn’t bad we got beat in the kicking game 13-18. The total was 84-86. Connecticut had some big plays: a 61 yard kick-off return, a 63 yard run. Alec Lemon had a big day with 30, 21 and 23 yard receptions and a 20 yard TD pass.

SOUTH FLORIDA

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 8-4
1st down pass 11-7
2nd down run 6-5
2nd down pass 3-10
3rd down run 2-1
3rd down pass 6-8
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 1-2
Total: 37-37

SU kicking
Kickoffs 2-2
Punts 1-5
Field Goals 1-0
Extra Points 2-0
Total: 6-7
Penalties: 6-5
Turnovers: 1-0
Total: 7-5

When USF had the ball:
1st down run 9-16
1st down pass 5-9
2nd down run 4-9
2nd down pass 4-9
3rd down run 5-1
3rd down pass 7-2
4th down run 1-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 35-46

USF kicking
Kickoffs 5-2
Punts 2-2
Field Goals 0-3
Extra Points 0-4
Total: 7-11

This was the game of all the dropped passes. Many of them were on second down (3-10). Overall our offense wasn’t that bad but our defense got handled. And again the kicking game was bad 13-18. Overall we were beaten 92-106 in plays. There weren’t a lot of big plays in this one. It was mostly long drives, (which is why the plays won and the points scored both point in the same direction). B. J. Daniels completed passes for 43 and ran for 23 and 30 yards. Ryan Nassib found Nick Provo for 24 yards and Alec Lemon for 22, 26 and a 58 yard touchdown.

CINCINNATI

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 8-12
1st down pass 3-6
2nd down run 8-5
2nd down pass 7-6
3rd down run 2-3
3rd down pass 2-7
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-2
Total: 30-41

SU kicking
Kickoffs 1-3
Punts 1-5
Field Goals 2-0
Extra Points 1-0
Total: 5-8

Penalties: 6-4
Turnovers: 0-1
Total: 6-5

When Cincinnati had the ball:
1st down run 13-9
1st down pass 3-7
2nd down run 6-10
2nd down pass 5-4
3rd down run 2-4
3rd down pass 6-4
4th down run 1-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 36-38

Cincinnati kicking
Kickoffs 5-2
Punts 0-4
Field Goals 1-3
Extra Points 0-3
Total: 6-12

We again got beat badly in plays, 83-104. It was mostly on offense (30-41) and again in the kicking game (11-20). We actually got off to a good start leading 3-0 and 6-3 before falling behind 6-10 at the half. Cincy got a 74 yard kickoff return and an immediate 24 yard run from Isaiah Pead to open the second half to make it 6-17 and we never got back into it. Munchie Legeaux hit DJ Woods for 29 yards. Jordan Luallen had a 48 yard run. Ryan Nassib hit Antwon Bailey 25 yards and Van Chew for 27 yards but it was too little too late.

PITTSBURGH

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 12-5
1st down pass 7-5
2nd down run 3-9
2nd down pass 8-3
3rd down run 1-1
3rd down pass 4-5
4th down run 1-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 36-28

SU kicking
Kickoffs 0-5
Punts 2-1
Field Goals 2-0
Extra Points 2-0
Total: 6-6

Penalties: 3-7
Turnovers: 1-6
Total: 4-13

When Pitt had the ball:
1st down run 9-10
1st down pass 4-8
2nd down run 5-7
2nd down pass 6-7
3rd down run 3-0
3rd down pass 6-4
4th down run 0-0
4th down pass 0-0
Total: 33-36

Pitt kicking
Kickoffs 6-1
Punts 1-2
Field Goals 1-4
Extra Points 0-3
Total: 8-10

What killed us here were the penalties and turnovers. The plays were 87-93. We fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a quick score, then threw an interception and gave up a field goal. We struggled back to 20-26 and had a fumble returned for a touchdown followed by an interception. Tino Sunseri completed passes of 22, 33 and 37 yards. Ryan Nassib found Alec Lemon for 22 and 27 yards on one drive. But it was the mistakes that determined the outcome of the game.

 

[SWC75]

COMBINED NUMBERS

When SU had the ball:
1st down run 91-94
1st down pass 83-70 (Combined on first down 174-164)
2nd down run 58-62
2nd down pass 70-74 (Combined on second down 128-136)
3rd down run 26-24
3rd down pass 45-58 (Combined on third down 71-82)
4th down run 3-2
4th down pass 6-8 (Combined on fourth down 9-10)
Total: 382-392

SU kicking
Kickoffs 12-46
Punts 26-38
Field Goals 15-4
Extra Points 33-1
Total: 84-89

Penalties: 56-52
Turnovers: 20-20
Total: 76-72

When the opponent had the ball:
1st down run 115-107
1st down pass 73-90 (Combined on first down: 188-197)
2nd down run 51-53
2nd down pass 72-73 (Combined on second down 123-126)
3rd down run 34-25
3rd down pass 67-45 (Combined on third down 101-70)
4th down run 3-6
4th down pass 1-1 (Combined on fourth down 4-7)
Total: 416-400

Opponent kicking
Kickoffs 49-19
Punts 19-28
Field Goals 9-27
Extra Points 2-36
Total: 79-110

Grand total: 1040-1064

We weren’t physically uncompetitive in any game all year, at least not like South Carolina was that long-ago night. We lacked big-play explosiveness. We gave away the Rutgers game and never got it back. The defense didn’t show up at Tulane. Most of our problems down the stretch had to do with a struggling offense, the kicking game and turnovers
　

 

[DeGrozz]

If it hasn't already happened, someone should start archiving all of your posts.

 

[br801]

Great stuff. Once again, you've delivered a fresh perspective on the subject.

 

[mantonio]

So, what is the crux of this analysis?

Does it come down to a better offensive line for Nassib to operate? He just cannot create on his own when the line breaks down.

 

[DNABB5]

(we are not worthy)

I have confidence SWC has his own archives.

 

[kcsu]

Off the chart. Im not sure what you do for a living but your data is amazing. thank you for all of the time and effort that you put into this. I truly appreciate it.

 

[CuyahogaCuse]

Amazing stuff. Well done is an understatement. Thank you again.

 

[jcuse44]

Why did i choose to read this at 6am? Brain just exploded

 

[SWC75]

Im not sure what you do for a living.

I'm retired. Can't you tell?

 

[DeGrozz]

Sitting back watching this game today, I kept thinking of this post. I would guess that we won more plays than we lost today (maybe many more), but when you lose a couple of big plays, that's hard to overcome.

 

[SWC75]

Sitting back watching this game today, I kept thinking of this post. I would guess that we won more plays than we lost today (maybe many more), but when you lose a couple of big plays, that's hard to overcome.

I'll be getting to that. But, Upside/Downside comes first.

 

[DNABB5]

So I don't know how many had this in their heads but we won a lot more plays against NW.

It was 5 terrible one that killed it. @ punt returns two turnovers and a "late" hit

Ugh and so forth

 

[BlackKnight76]

This is great stuff, SWC.


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