SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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I’m going to use the same system used last year to break down games from the perspective of how many times did each team get what they wanted from a play and deny the other team what they wanted. It’s basically an attempt to see if one team physically dominated the game, in which case they’d win most of the plays, or was the game decided on “big” plays, mistakes and breaks, as most games are. If you physically dominated a team, you have a chance to win a lot of games if the other things at least even out. If you weren’t physically dominated in a loss, that loss doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t win a bunch of other games on your schedule. Basically, the problems can be fixed on the practice field, not the recruiting trail or the weight room.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse had the ball….
KO- T46, T15, T25, T18, T25, T31, T27, T35, T25 (SU 6 TU 3)
P- 35(T41), 35(T48), 49(T12) (SU 1 TU 2)
FG G(from 22) (SU 1 TU 0)
XP G,G,G,G,G,G,G (SU 7 TU 0)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 15 Tulane 5
1st rush- 3, 5, 7, 1(6), -2, 3, 1TD, 1, 18, 0, 1TD, 4, 5, -1, 7, 7, 2, 2, 3, 4(9) (SU 10 TU 10)
1st pass- 20, 15TD, 23, 11, 10, 19, I, 10, 9, I, 20, I, I (SU 9 TU 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 19 Tulane 14
2nd rush- 1(7), 17(5), 7(12), -1, 1(9), 5(1), 22, -4, 40(5), 5, 6, 4(3), 9(3), 5(8), 3(7), 2(5) (SU 10 TU 6)
2nd pass- I, 5TD, 9(12), 4TD, I (SU 3 TU 2)
Second Down total: Syracuse 13 Tulane 8
3rd run- 9, 2(8), 5(5), 2(4) (SU 2 TU 2)
3rd pass- 14(6), 5(3), 4(5), 16(11), 3, 14(13), I, 7(4), 4(8) (SU 5 TU 4)
Third Down total: Syracuse 7 Tulane 6
4th run- 8(3) (SU 1 TU 0)
4th pass- none
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Tulane 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Tulane 28
Penalties: 5,5,3,5,5,5 (SU 0 TU 6)
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 0 Tulane 6
Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 55 Tulane 39
When Tulane had the ball:
KO- 25, 25, 25, 15 (SU 0 TU 4)
P- B-11(T6), B-10(T17), 49(S14), 53(S25), 52(S18) (SU 2 TU 3)
FG G(21), B (SU 1 TU 1)
XP G, G (SU 0 TU 2)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 3 Tulane 10
1st rush- -6, 4, 1(5), -5, 0, 7, 45TD, -3, 0, 11, -2V, 6(20), 4, 9 (SU 7 TU 7)
1st pass- 7, I, I, 3, I, 6, 5, 1, -8, I, I, I, I, 10, 2 (SU 11 TU 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 18 Tulane 11
2nd rush- 22(16), 1(6), 16(8), 5, 1(8), 19(4), 2(5), 3, 0, 0 (SU 6 TU 4)
2nd pass- 9(3), I, 7(15), 12, 19, 4597), -8, 7(2), 6(18), I, -6, I, I (SU 8 TU 5)
Second Down total: Syracuse 14 Tulane 9
3rd run- 4(5), 1(6) (SU 2 TU 0)
3rd pass- 12(5), I, I, -4, I, 4(2), I, 7(7), 13(14), 19(16), 9, -2 (SU 8 TU 4)
Third Down total: Syracuse 10 Tulane 4
4th run- 3(1) (SU 1 TU 0)
4th pass- 16TD, I (SU 1 TU 1)
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Tulane 2
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Tulane 26
Penalties: 5,5,10,10 (SU 4 TU 0)
Turnovers: fumble, interception (SU 2 TU 0)
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 6 Tulane 0
Total when Tulane had the ball: Syracuse 52 Tulane 36
Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 18 Tulane 15
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 83 Tulane 54
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 6 Tulane 6
Game Total: Syracuse 107 Tulane 75
Comment: I thought this one might come out closer. I noted that at halftime we were ahead 42-17 but had out-gained them by only 261-251. This was a game dominated by big plays in the kicking game: three blocks and a muffed punt. But in the end, we pretty much dominated the physical play as well. In a way, we were more dominant in the second half when we only scored 10 points but our defense shut the Green Wave down so no comeback was possible. We out-gained them 144-79 in that half. And I think defense will be the key vs. Clemson. We’ve got to find a way to stay in the game and if we have a Northwestern-style defensive performance, forget it.
The formula is this: If the offense on first down, can get at least a third of the way to a first down or on second down can get at least halfway to a first down, (always round the yardage needed up), or on third or fourth down can get a first down, they won the play. If they didn’t the defense won the play. Any offensive score is a win for the offense. Any turnover is a win for the defense. If a penalty is part of the play, the yardage gained or lost just gets figured into the play’s result. Penalties that negate a play or dead ball fouls are counted separately. If a team runs the “victory” play at the end of a half or game, (it’s always a two yard loss), their goal is to maintain possession of the ball while the clock runs, not to gain yardage. So any victory play where they do that is a win for them , despite the lost yardage.
Any successful placekick is a win for the kicking team. An unsuccessful kick is a win for the defending team. Punts are evaluated by their net result only. A punt from the 50 yard line into the end zone is a 30 yard punt, not a 50 yard punt. A 53 yard punt that produces a 52 yard return is a 1 yard punt. Any punt that results in a net change in the line of scrimmage of 40 yards downfield or that results in the other team starting from their own twenty yard line or closer to their goal line is a win for the kicking team. The one recent new wrinkle is that kickoff touchbacks now come out to the 25 yard line. Any kickoff that results in the receiving team starting their drive from the 25 yard line or closer to their own goal line is a win for the kicking team.
I’m going to chart each game in the following manner: For each team, I’ll list the result of each kickoff, (where the other team started their possession after the kickoff), the net yardage of each punt, (if they never got the punt off note whether it was blocked or bobbled and the net yardage of the play) and the yard line it wound up on, the result of each extra point, (I’ll note if it was a two point attempt) and field goal attempt. (I’ll also note any conversion returned for two points: I don’t think we’ve had one in our games since Pitt in 1990). Then I’ll record what happened on each first down run, first down pass, second down run and pass, third down run and pass and fourth down run and pass. If the yardage needed for a first down or a score in a goal to go situation is other than 10, I’ll note that unless the play resulted in a loss, no gain or an incomplete pass, in which case nit was a win for the defense regardless of the yardage needed. If it was a ”victory play” I’ll put a ’V’ next to it. Sacks are reported under passes, not runs, just by the negative yardage. If a quarterback scrambled for positive yardage, that’s a run simply because that’s how the ESPN play-by-play, which I am using, would record it.
I’ll note the number of penalties that were not tacked onto the play and the turnovers separately. Each line will have a “score” at the end of it, stating how many plays in each category each team won. There will be a grand total at the end, followed by a brief analysis of the stats and the game.
When Syracuse had the ball….
KO- T46, T15, T25, T18, T25, T31, T27, T35, T25 (SU 6 TU 3)
P- 35(T41), 35(T48), 49(T12) (SU 1 TU 2)
FG G(from 22) (SU 1 TU 0)
XP G,G,G,G,G,G,G (SU 7 TU 0)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 15 Tulane 5
1st rush- 3, 5, 7, 1(6), -2, 3, 1TD, 1, 18, 0, 1TD, 4, 5, -1, 7, 7, 2, 2, 3, 4(9) (SU 10 TU 10)
1st pass- 20, 15TD, 23, 11, 10, 19, I, 10, 9, I, 20, I, I (SU 9 TU 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 19 Tulane 14
2nd rush- 1(7), 17(5), 7(12), -1, 1(9), 5(1), 22, -4, 40(5), 5, 6, 4(3), 9(3), 5(8), 3(7), 2(5) (SU 10 TU 6)
2nd pass- I, 5TD, 9(12), 4TD, I (SU 3 TU 2)
Second Down total: Syracuse 13 Tulane 8
3rd run- 9, 2(8), 5(5), 2(4) (SU 2 TU 2)
3rd pass- 14(6), 5(3), 4(5), 16(11), 3, 14(13), I, 7(4), 4(8) (SU 5 TU 4)
Third Down total: Syracuse 7 Tulane 6
4th run- 8(3) (SU 1 TU 0)
4th pass- none
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Tulane 0
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 40 Tulane 28
Penalties: 5,5,3,5,5,5 (SU 0 TU 6)
Turnovers: none
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 0 Tulane 6
Total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 55 Tulane 39
When Tulane had the ball:
KO- 25, 25, 25, 15 (SU 0 TU 4)
P- B-11(T6), B-10(T17), 49(S14), 53(S25), 52(S18) (SU 2 TU 3)
FG G(21), B (SU 1 TU 1)
XP G, G (SU 0 TU 2)
Total for kicking game: Syracuse 3 Tulane 10
1st rush- -6, 4, 1(5), -5, 0, 7, 45TD, -3, 0, 11, -2V, 6(20), 4, 9 (SU 7 TU 7)
1st pass- 7, I, I, 3, I, 6, 5, 1, -8, I, I, I, I, 10, 2 (SU 11 TU 4)
First Down total: Syracuse 18 Tulane 11
2nd rush- 22(16), 1(6), 16(8), 5, 1(8), 19(4), 2(5), 3, 0, 0 (SU 6 TU 4)
2nd pass- 9(3), I, 7(15), 12, 19, 4597), -8, 7(2), 6(18), I, -6, I, I (SU 8 TU 5)
Second Down total: Syracuse 14 Tulane 9
3rd run- 4(5), 1(6) (SU 2 TU 0)
3rd pass- 12(5), I, I, -4, I, 4(2), I, 7(7), 13(14), 19(16), 9, -2 (SU 8 TU 4)
Third Down total: Syracuse 10 Tulane 4
4th run- 3(1) (SU 1 TU 0)
4th pass- 16TD, I (SU 1 TU 1)
Fourth Down total: Syracuse 1 Tulane 2
Total for plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Tulane 26
Penalties: 5,5,10,10 (SU 4 TU 0)
Turnovers: fumble, interception (SU 2 TU 0)
Total for penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 6 Tulane 0
Total when Tulane had the ball: Syracuse 52 Tulane 36
Overall kicking game total: Syracuse 18 Tulane 15
Overall plays from scrimmage total: Syracuse 83 Tulane 54
Overall penalties and turnovers: Syracuse 6 Tulane 6
Game Total: Syracuse 107 Tulane 75
Comment: I thought this one might come out closer. I noted that at halftime we were ahead 42-17 but had out-gained them by only 261-251. This was a game dominated by big plays in the kicking game: three blocks and a muffed punt. But in the end, we pretty much dominated the physical play as well. In a way, we were more dominant in the second half when we only scored 10 points but our defense shut the Green Wave down so no comeback was possible. We out-gained them 144-79 in that half. And I think defense will be the key vs. Clemson. We’ve got to find a way to stay in the game and if we have a Northwestern-style defensive performance, forget it.
