With the Roster Shaping up

[IthacaMatt]

I agree in principle about Starling needing to shoot less often… But with several points of added context. Syracuse as a team took 59.5 shots last season, ranked around the 100th most shots per game as a team… I was surprised when I looked that up, I felt like our place was way slower watching games. The top three were about 65 shots per game, so even the fastest pace teams aren’t shooting that much more per game. Syracuse was 147th in forcing teams to foul us, not a bad ranking. Where Syracuse wasn’t very good is in turnovers, 259th in the NCAA. All these factors come into team pace, and Starling winds up shooting 27% of all team shots when he wasn’t injured. If we turned it over three fewer times, that’s three extra shots, and Starling shooting 16 seems less like a gunner.

But looking at our roster, there was nobody else you wanted shooting… Davis and Carlos were 5th and 6th on our roster, with 12.4 combined shots per game. Honestly, did you want Starling to shoot, or pass to one of the bricklayers around him?

Looking ahead, on next years roster, I expect an increase in pace with George loving to run. He’s a lead guard who immediately turns to initiate offense in transition after rebounding the ball, either himself, or getting an outlet pass. He also does a really good job of limiting turnovers, only 3 in 36 minutes while having the ball in his hands the whole time.

Considering those things like faster team pace and limiting turnovers, I’m hopeful we’ll be closer to 65 shots per game instead of 59. That would still be Starling taking 24% of our shots if he was at 16. 14 makes more sense for Starling in a balanced team concept taking 65 shots per game. Plus, he’ll be playing next to extremely efficient Kingz, who we want shooting more, as well as strong finishers in Freeman and Kyle.

Maybe Starling shoots better with more selectivity, increases his efficiency, and still can score his 16-18 points on 12-14 shots, instead of 16. Ideally, Kingz increased his average shots from 8 to 12, keeps his efficient scoring, and winds up neck and neck with Starling for the scoring lead in the team.

Starling won’t need to carry the load the way he did last season. Hopefully his season looks more like the Starling that finished his sophomore season playing next to high usage combo guard Mintz. Starling had .573 TS% on .360 Three point shooting in conference play on still heavy usage. That roster, with Mintz and an effective Chris Bell taking a lot of the attention, put Starling in a much better position to succeed than this past season. While George and Mintz are radically different players, Kingz is like a better version of Bell… I think the roster, even without additions, will put Starling in positions to succeed much better than this past season. He was just asked to offensively carry a bunch of mid major players, and everybody else good was injured.

*Sorry to write a thesis in response to your short post.

Really good analysis. Thanks for the effort.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I haven’t much to say about the defense of three of our recruits.

Anthony only had offensive highlights, so might take after his old man when it comes to defense… Fennell and Womack don’t have much video of them playing defense either.

White on the other hand, is a long, agile, ‘defend effectively at least four positions’ type player. His length makes him a good shotblocker as well. He might get a lot of steals too. He’s the freshman I’m most excited about, enough where I keep shaking my head at people insisting we “need” another small forward. I think Freeman, White and Kingz, with tiny bits of help from Anthony and Fennell will be pretty good at the 3.

I’m actually not sold on Starling and Fennell being the only backup point guards, a Carlos clone would be good on this roster.

We need more players, sure, but in the intended Davis, Lucas Taylor role, experienced, inexpensive depth in case of injuries. Those guys would be great 11 and 12 guys on this exact roster.

We do need a center or two. Freeman will be exposed as too small if he has to play center too much, and even Kyle is a little light to play too many minutes. A starter with really good size would be so much better. Kyle off the bench for 15-20 at center and 5 or so next to the center at PF would be preferable.

Freeman can play beside two big men as well, if the situation calls for a big lineup. I think Transfer Center, Kyle, Freeman, Kingz and George could be a really strong lineup depending on a few things.

I agree, we need a bulkier guy as an option at center for defense and rebounding. And some actual low post scoring moves would be useful, too, to open things up for shooters.

You might be right that we're covered at the 3, but if we somehow could get Deng, that would be ideal to me. Deng, a bulky center, and maybe another back up PG.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Yep. We kicked the tires on Ballard, but felt he wasn’t a “fit” in style.

Do you think we'll get one more center, but with more size? Or there just aren't many / any of them left?

 

[Comstock44]

I guess this means we really are going into next year with a 6-9 center who was third string at UCLA. 2.8 ppg and 1.8 rpg. What a downgrade from Lampkin. Yikes.

 

[cusealways]

I guess this means we really are going into next year with a 6-9 center who was third string at UCLA. 2.8 ppg and 1.8 rpg. What a downgrade from Lampkin. Yikes.

Lampkin was so, so atrociously bad at defense that if WK can provide a lob threat and good defense he is way better than Lampkin last year.

 

[Niastri]

I guess this means we really are going into next year with a 6-9 center who was third string at UCLA. 2.8 ppg and 1.8 rpg. What a downgrade from Lampkin. Yikes.

I too, am disappointed they didn’t get a second competent center to duo with Kyle.

But I’m not especially worried about Kyle in a vacuum. I watched the highlight video from Kyle’s previous year, and felt a lot better. Even though he was at a mid major, he showed more skill than just a big jumping guy.

Our offense is going to be run through the guards and guards, our center position is going to be for defense and dunking.

I think our core of Kyle, Freeman, Kingz, Starling and George is really good. I worry about attrition. A lot.

 

[NineOneSeven]

That’s great to hear but without solid rebounding, it’s difficult to run. Hope some athletic players embrace the rebounding role to get the ball moving and to earn playing time.

Agree it’s hard to get the ball down the court on fast breaks if you aren’t completing the defensive possession by rebounding but I’d gladly give up some rebounding to be more efficient elsewhere.

One thing this past year’s team was actually decent at was rebounding, which is ironic considering it was our worst team in 5 decades, and even some of our better teams would be frustrating to watch clear the rebounds (from zone).

We certainly weren’t an elite rebounding team but we finished the season out rebounding opponents (+4pg I think) and had around a top 50 rebounding rate.

The problem is, from numbers I saw…we were 291(!) in defensive efficiency. And 168 in offensive efficiency. If the opponent wasn’t scoring first shot attempt sure we’d get the rebound and we were okay at clearing our own bricks inside.

Point being— rebounding didn’t necessarily translate to wins when there were clear bigger issues on both sides of the ball.

 

[Niastri]

Agree it’s hard to get the ball down the court on fast breaks if you aren’t completing the defensive possession by rebounding but I’d gladly give up some rebounding to be more efficient elsewhere.

One thing this past year’s team was actually decent at was rebounding, which is ironic considering it was our worst team in 5 decades, and even some of our better teams would be frustrating to watch clear the rebounds (from zone).

We certainly weren’t an elite rebounding team but we finished the season out rebounding opponents (+4pg I think) and had around a top 50 rebounding rate.

The problem is, from numbers I saw…we were 291(!) in defensive efficiency. And 168 in offensive efficiency. If the opponent wasn’t scoring first shot attempt sure we’d get the rebound and we were okay at clearing our own bricks inside.

Point being— rebounding didn’t necessarily translate to wins when there were clear bigger issues on both sides of the ball.

I like everything you said. If we’re having a three guard lineup of Kingz, Starling and George most of the time, Freeman is the perfect PF to have out there… Freeman’s 30% defensive rebounding number is elite, and he did it against some power teams before getting hurt. 13 boards against Texas Tech and double doubles against Norte Dame and Florida State in his first 14 games. Against Florida State, he was probably already injured, he went 16 and 10 against them and then missed the rest of the season.

Kyle, on the other hand, isn’t a great defensive rebounder… Kyle does a few things well, and is a great physical specimen, but I was hoping to pair him with a glass cleaner to make rebounding with three guards a little better.

We’re fortunate George is a good rebounder for a guard, even though he’s a point guard. Starling and Kingz get rebound about how you would expect for guards.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I guess this means we really are going into next year with a 6-9 center who was third string at UCLA. 2.8 ppg and 1.8 rpg. What a downgrade from Lampkin. Yikes.

apparently the plan is to go undersized at center...with 2 6'9" guys and THATS IT.

i am not a fan of this strategy.

 

[Cusefan0307]

apparently the plan is to go undersized at center...with 2 6'9" guys and THATS IT.

i am not a fan of this strategy.

We know. You're obsessed with height. How tall were Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson?

 

[Fly Rodder]

The problem is, from numbers I saw…we were 291(!) in defensive efficiency. And 168 in offensive efficiency.

I think the roster is much improved. But this is a huge red flag and I'm still skeptical. It seems like there's a lot of smoke starting up about how great these guys are going to be. A lock for the tourney? It's new toy syndrome. None of these guys were stars last season and they all have some improving to do - not to mention becoming a team.

It's going to take a lot to turn around those numbers. Even in '24, SU was 80th and 85th in DE with Maliq, Q, and Judah. Deep bench pieces and starters from losing teams aren't going to magically make this a top-40 KP team. Red is going to have to coach his ass off.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Rick Jackson, Arinze Onuaku and Rakeem Christmas were all 6’9” tall.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think the roster is much improved. But this is a huge red flag and I'm still skeptical. It seems like there's a lot of smoke starting up about how great these guys are going to be. A lock for the tourney? It's new toy syndrome. None of these guys were stars last season and they all have some improving to do - not to mention becoming a team.

It's going to take a lot to turn around those numbers. Even in '24, SU was 80th and 85th in DE with Maliq, Q, and Judah. Deep bench pieces and starters from losing teams aren't going to magically make this a top-40 KP team. Red is going to have to coach his ass off.

Put up or shut up time for Red. I think we will score enough, but not sure he can coach up the defense. That’s what next season will come down to. I would have liked to see some changes to S&C or assistants, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

 

[kcsu]

height doesn't matter in basketball it is your wingspan and reach. The UCLA kid has a 7 3 with hops, and a motor to get the ball that is what matters.

 

[Cheriehoop]

height doesn't matter in basketball it is your wingspan and reach. The UCLA kid has a 7 3 with hops, and a motor to get the ball that is what matters.

I think strength and balance are also necessary characteristics of a very good center. They need strength to get and hold position and balance not to be easily knocked or pushed around.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

Kyle is the only guy on the roster who has shown shot-blocking prowess at the HM level, but he's done it in limited time. Every team needs a guy who can erase shots when the perimeter defense breaks down, or in rare cases to funnel the other team's offense to. Souare and Deng (if he commits) don't offer that, despite their length.

IF the staff is looking at Kyle to play 25-28 MPG at a high-major level, that is a pretty big gamble.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

Rick Jackson, Arinze Onuaku and Rakeem Christmas were all 6’9” tall.

2010 worked in large part because Rick and Wes could block shots and all the other perimeter guys could get steals leading to runouts. We were 5th nationally in defensive BLK% and 4th in defensive STL% that year.

 

[Niastri]

2010 worked in large part because Rick and Wes could block shots and all the other perimeter guys could get steals leading to runouts. We were 5th nationally in defensive BLK% and 4th in defensive STL% that year.

The zone trap was so good teams just gave up on a third of the offensive zone… They were significantly more likely to turn it over than do anything useful in any of the four corners.

Sometimes you could see the opponent pass the ball to a corner, the trap was launched, and Rautins was already moving off the ball… it was like a designed play for the pass to go to him.

That team was so good defensively, it was crazy to watch.

 

[baggerbob]

Of course, that would be great. I am not being snarky, but is there more of a plan than play defense or sit? It seems like effort wasn't the only problem last year. There was no indication that there were sound defensive fundamentals. And I am still unsure if there is any identity. We would all love to see less blowout losses and defense is key to that.

When your center is completely unable to stop consistent layups you will always have problems winning.
Eddie was an offensive threat but a zero on the defensive end.

 

[Cheriehoop]

When your center is completely unable to stop consistent layups you will always have problems winning.
Eddie was an offensive threat but a zero on the defensive end.

He played man to man literally - he covered his man- don’t recall a center going off against us in a game this year and was an excellent rebounder which is considered a defensive stat. He was very bad on any help defense, switching, hedging, and rim protection. Whether he or the coaching staff approved this style, for a center who played big minutes he also stayed out of major foul trouble in games averaging only 3 fouls per 40 minutes.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Kyle is the only guy on the roster who has shown shot-blocking prowess at the HM level, but he's done it in limited time. Every team needs a guy who can erase shots when the perimeter defense breaks down, or in rare cases to funnel the other team's offense to. Souare and Deng (if he commits) don't offer that, despite their length.

IF the staff is looking at Kyle to play 25-28 MPG at a high-major level, that is a pretty big gamble.

Somebody has to be on the floor.

 

[hoopsupstate]

He played man to man literally - he covered his man- don’t recall a center going off against us in a game this year and was an excellent rebounder which is considered a defensive stat. He was very bad on any help defense, switching, hedging, and rim protection. Whether he or the coaching staff approved this style, for a center who played big minutes he also stayed out of major foul trouble in games averaging only 3 fouls per 40 minutes.

The SMU big went off in the second half. He scored at will.

 

[Cheriehoop]

The SMU big went off in the second half. He scored at will.

Eddie played 26 minutes and did damage with 10 rebounds but had a bad offensive game with just 5 points, Yigitoglu, SMU’s starting 7’2” center played 23 minutes had 2 points, 2 rebounds. Eddie was the top rebounder in the SMU game with 10 and SMU’s top rebounder was a 6’7” forward, Matt Cross. The scoring damage was by 2 forwards and 2 guards - Cross, Harris, Miller and off the bench SMU’s Ambrose-Hylton if that even matters in the big picture.

 

[cuseincincy]

We know. You're obsessed with height. How tall were Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson?

and Andre Hawkins

 

[OHIORANGES]

I haven’t much to say about the defense of three of our recruits.

Anthony only had offensive highlights, so might take after his old man when it comes to defense… Fennell and Womack don’t have much video of them playing defense either.

White on the other hand, is a long, agile, ‘defend effectively at least four positions’ type player. His length makes him a good shotblocker as well. He might get a lot of steals too. He’s the freshman I’m most excited about, enough where I keep shaking my head at people insisting we “need” another small forward. I think Freeman, White and Kingz, with tiny bits of help from Anthony and Fennell will be pretty good at the 3.

I’m actually not sold on Starling and Fennell being the only backup point guards, a Carlos clone would be good on this roster.

We need more players, sure, but in the intended Davis, Lucas Taylor role, experienced, inexpensive depth in case of injuries. Those guys would be great 11 and 12 guys on this exact roster.

We do need a center or two. Freeman will be exposed as too small if he has to play center too much, and even Kyle is a little light to play too many minutes. A starter with really good size would be so much better. Kyle off the bench for 15-20 at center and 5 or so next to the center at PF would be preferable.

Freeman can play beside two big men as well, if the situation calls for a big lineup. I think Transfer Center, Kyle, Freeman, Kingz and George could be a really strong lineup depending on a few things.

Carlos? Carlos? Did you say Carlos?