ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[EnviroSciGuy]

"We'll be one of the 'haves'. Someone else will be a 'not-have'".

If you look around the poker table and can't immediately spot the patsy, then you're the patsy.

What's even funnier to me is that if a bunch of the schools that are "always" on the losing end now decide to opt out and it's just the big boys left, how will their fans react of Georgia is consistently 3-9 or USC is consistently 2-10?

It may take a few decades, but I think there will be clear winners and losers from among the group currently considered "the haves". Will be interesting to see how long it takes for this group to reach some sort of equilibrium if a USC or Georgia can't be consistently at their preferred level.

 

[Ernj]

ND takes in much less TV revenue than if they were in a conference. Only thing that gets ND into a conference is if they lose access to the CFP without being in one.

ND only takes in less TV revenue now because they drafted such a long contract. In 1991 when they agreed to the contract, $25m was a lot of money. In the next couple years they will renegotiate a new contract and make a ton more, and they don't have to share with anyone else. Why would they join a league for football at that point? Especially when they already have the ACC giving them money for all other sports.

 

[Sherman20]

Agreed.
Right now the ACC is a marriage of convenience & the article basically reiterates that the GOR is the only reason why.
ESPN is not willing to renegotiate and the "Magnificent 7" can huff and puff all they want, but it won't change anything.
The smart play would be to work together and literally push ESPN to renegotiate the contract. Players do it all the time, whenever their value exceeds their compensation.
If the conference stuck together, approached ESPN and demanded a redo, damn the torpedoes and all, ESPN would have to do...something. And of course if Notre Dame joined the party, ESPN would have to act.
Whatever happens, this "every man for himself" posture will only hasten the inevitable. It's stupid and shortsighted...but what else is new?

My frustration with the Magnificent Morons:
—Why did they invite Syracuse and Pitt in the first place if you were gonna just try to blow the whole thing up 10 years later anyways? Thanks for nothing. I thought this was seen as a long term partnership. Meaning decades.
—Also, why didn’t Swofford and the Presidents also try to poach Penn State at the same time? That could have maybe jarred loose the Michigan schools and OSU.
—Why did they sign that moronic extra long term contract?
—Why did they drag their feet for so long getting a conference channel off the ground?
—having the most revenue doesn’t actually equal winning national titles and making playoffs, as Phillips has pointed out. Why has Clemson won two recent titles (more than most SEC schools and all BIG schools).
—If Clemson can win, why can’t Florida State. Get your act together. The revenue gap isn’t why they’ve fallen to middle of the pack in their own conference.
—Why are they dragging their feet on expansion now? A West Coast flank with Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, and the Arizon schools would be great and will keep them out of the Big 12’s hands. The ACC needs to use its academic stature to its advantage in its fight with the Big 12 and PAC 12.

 

[Orangefizz]

Cuse, Pitt, BC, Louisville, West Virginia, and Cincy, makes for a decent NorthEast Pod for the BIG 12.

Add Duke/WF and UCF for Florida exposure

Who knows where the playoffs end up. I hope it doesn’t grow larger as that just adds the 6th best SEC team to the mix.

As long as it is 12 teams it makes more sense to stay in a reduced ACC vs joining the B12. In the ACC you can split the playoff money 10 ways and actually make it to the playoffs. In the B12 you are getting half the playoff money (more teams to split with) and have no shot at the playoffs.

could see something like this:
BC UCONN CUSE PITT WV CINCY VILLE DUKE WF GT UCF USF

 

[oldpinepoint]

WSJ News Exclusive | ESPN Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise

Interesting development here, having ESPN flagship as a stand alone might make some schools stop and think as geography doesn’t play as big a factor. I would think brand would be more valuable, I.e NC State doesn’t move the needle

 

[Scooch]

Cuse, Pitt, BC, Louisville, West Virginia, and Cincy, makes for a decent NorthEast Pod for the BIG 12.

No it doesn't.

In all honesty, I'd rather crawl back to the Big East for all of our sports but football, than play in the Big 12. At some point I'd rather get off the carousel than align with teams in freakin' Iowa and Kansas. Enough already.

 

[Cuse'91]

No it doesn't.

In all honesty, I'd rather crawl back to the Big East for all of our sports but football, than play in the Big 12. At some point I'd rather get off the carousel than align with teams in freakin' Iowa and Kansas. Enough already.

That pod is basically our Big East regional rivals. With the Southern cooking/Carpet bagger treatment we get in the ACC, I would rather travel West to play Kansas regularly, than Duke or Clemson.

 

[elimunelson]

ND only takes in less TV revenue now because they drafted such a long contract. In 1991 when they agreed to the contract, $25m was a lot of money. In the next couple years they will renegotiate a new contract and make a ton more, and they don't have to share with anyone else. Why would they join a league for football at that point? Especially when they already have the ACC giving them money for all other sports.

Sharing more money and taking more home than one deal that makes less money and no sharing is still less money.

ND could have left for the BIG and i'm sure the networks would capitulate on their deal to support the move financially.

They have shown zero interest in chasing the last buck so far.

 

[elimunelson]

No it doesn't.

In all honesty, I'd rather crawl back to the Big East for all of our sports but football, than play in the Big 12. At some point I'd rather get off the carousel than align with teams in freakin' Iowa and Kansas. Enough already.

I think ultimately we end up in a reformed big east for all sports (everyone regionally is happy including our field hockey, x country, etc teams who will travel to uconn vs clemson).

Our football ends up in the Notre Dame Network of stars where we are supported by the consortium of ND lovers (BC/Pitt/Army/Navy/Duke/WF) and get paid something btw "that's a number that can support the SUAD and wow that's much less than the mega conf are getting to support their AD and pay their players"

If this doesn't happen i'll be surprised. Who knows when this happens but I think if we're being honest with ourselves we know, as a school, that's kinda where we should be situated.

I posit all of this with the assumption that the rogue nations ultimately leave no matter the solutions laid out in the ACC. FSU/Clemson/Miami have no interest being in the Syracuse sports business anymore.

Anything less geographically serious (Big 12) is laughable IMO.

 

[Scooch]

That pod is basically our Big East regional rivals. With the Southern cooking/Carpet bagger treatment we get in the ACC, I would rather travel West to play Kansas regularly, than Duke or Clemson.

It’s a three of our regional rivals. Whoopee.

I have zero interest in watching conference hoops games in the Great Plains. If we have to sacrifice football so that all of our other sports can thrive against logical conference opponents then so be it.

 

[Cuse'91]

It’s a three of our regional rivals. Whoopee.

I have zero interest in watching conference hoops games in the Great Plains. If we have to sacrifice football so that all of our other sports can thrive against logical conference opponents then so be it.

I don’t think it’s anyone's 1st choice. But, if it means we can still shoot for a playoff spot; then yes, I think there are worse things than playing your nearby pod opponents, then traveling to MidWest/Texas for rest of schedule.

 

[Bayside44]

It’s a three of our regional rivals. Whoopee.

I have zero interest in watching conference hoops games in the Great Plains. If we have to sacrifice football so that all of our other sports can thrive against logical conference opponents then so be it.

We're not going to travel 2000 miles to play in front of five of our fans on a yearly basis. Just goes against everything the SUAD believes in.

End of the day we're going to compete against schools in areas (for the most part) where we get our students and where our alumni /CNY nomads live.

 

[elimunelson]

Same holds true for Ivy League expansion. Have they shown any inclinations by adding athletic scholarships or reaching for more TV money? Yet, you keep saying the Ivies would add Duke for some reason.

you're twisting my words. I think at some point in my lifetime the Ivy League will expand and it will be due to existential reasons. And i think there's a more than 1% chance Duke was added.

i think the ivy league is the most untapped sports league in the world. They only have the largest endowments, the best schools, in some of the best locations for television.

If they decided one day to be like, "well we want to be in the sports business" they could alter the way they do business.

Just saying nothing is sacred in 2023 including the ivy league. what way they go is anyone's guess.

 

[syracuse95]

WSJ News Exclusive | ESPN Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise

Interesting development here, having ESPN flagship as a stand alone might make some schools stop and think as geography doesn’t play as big a factor. I would think brand would be more valuable, I.e NC State doesn’t move the needle

I said this in another thread a while ago. Streaming upends the whole model that became the basis for a lot of conference realignment. Rutgers is in the B1G for one, and only one, reason...getting B1G Network carriage fees on the basic cable tier in NY/NJ. That made great sense a decade and a half ago. Going forward, the real revenue generator will be actual eyeballs watching a team play. The B1G won't be able to generate revenue from a 90 year old widow in north Jersey who only has basic cable to watch the Weather Channel and reruns of the Golden Girls.

 

[sabach]

ND only takes in less TV revenue now because they drafted such a long contract. In 1991 when they agreed to the contract, $25m was a lot of money. In the next couple years they will renegotiate a new contract and make a ton more, and they don't have to share with anyone else. Why would they join a league for football at that point? Especially when they already have the ACC giving them money for all other sports.

I'm not saying ND is not going to try to get more money from NBC or whoever else wants to carry their home games and the AD has indicated that if conference revenue goes so high that it puts them at a significant competitive disadvantage, that would be a cause to consider a conference. But right now, the only reason they would ever join a conference is if the CFP was open only to conference members. I doubt that is going to happen which is why ND helped orchestrate the current CFP expansion.

 

[Scooch]

We're not going to travel 2000 miles to play in front of five of our fans on a yearly basis. Just goes against everything the SUAD believes in.

End of the day we're going to compete against schools in areas (for the most part) where we get our students and where our alumni /CNY nomads live.

Precisely. This is why I've been a big advocate for our inclusion in the ACC. Northerners are migrating to the mid-Atlantic. They're certainly not going to Iowa and Kansas.

 

[Cuse'91]

We're not going to travel 2000 miles to play in front of five of our fans on a yearly basis. Just goes against everything the SUAD believes in.

End of the day we're going to compete against schools in areas (for the most part) where we get our students and where our alumni /CNY nomads live.

The BIG 12 will likely pay 3-4x more than a league with us, BC, Wake, Duke; same with BigEast. We are going to take that much less revenue to keep traveling South?

 

[longtimefan]

Nebraska’s rank when they accepted the B1G invite was around 100. Plus, the diagram leaves out all of the B1G variables except the internet-three. Anyone who thinks the B1G isn’t more strategic than the three variables is mistaken.

Also, I think Iowa St is AAU, so they're improperly placed in the diagram

 

[elimunelson]

I don’t think it’s anyone's 1st choice. But, if it means we can still shoot for a playoff spot; then yes, I think there are worse things than playing your nearby pod opponents, then traveling to MidWest/Texas for rest of schedule.

A playoff spot is a fools errand for Syracuse football. If we just go by the numbers and assume a 12 team playoff, we would have made it what 2-3 times in the past 45-50 years? 87, 92 for sure. Maybe 91 too?

I'd rather eliminate this pipe dream and play in a conference where our basketball team (the one with 6 final fours) is situated to succeed at the maximum level.

I'd love to have my cake and eat it too mind you. I would guess we'll always have a razor thin path to the college championship game and if that small glimmer of hope is what people want, i don't think it'll go away even w two mega conferences. the sport won't support itself if that's the parameters. however, i'm not ready to join the WAC to make it happen

 

[Scooch]

I don’t think it’s anyone's 1st choice. But, if it means we can still shoot for a playoff spot; then yes, I think there are worse things than playing your nearby pod opponents, then traveling to MidWest/Texas for rest of schedule.

I don't find an incredibly longshot chance at a playoff spot to be worth putting every other one of our sports into a geographically disastrous Frankenstein conference.

Honestly, our football team would likely have a better playoff shot being in whatever becomes of the G5 and getting in that way. We're not running some ridiculous gauntlet in a 28 team Big XII.

 

[Cuse'91]

I don't find an incredibly longshot chance at a playoff spot to be worth putting every other one of our sports into a geographically disastrous Frankenstein conference.

Honestly, our football team would likely have a better playoff shot being in whatever becomes of the G5 and getting in that way. We're not running some ridiculous gauntlet in a 28 team Big XII.

Take out every other argument. I think it comes down to money. Does SU accept 10million in annual revenue, or a 40million payout in a National conference. And, unlike WV, we still will have our nearby travel partners.

 

[Madbiker]

What’s tough for me to understand is if there’s a super league of Big Ten and SEC schools, some of the schools aren’t going to be thrilled with a prospect of having very few winnable games. You need the crappier programs in order to bring balance to the football universe. Yeah the universities will get a ton of money, but how happy will some of the mid to lower tier schools in the super league be when they have very little prospects for success? I just don’t see how this works long term. Not everyone can be haves.

Yes. And Oklahoma is going to experience this first hand when they do a lot less winning in the B1G. Just like Nebraska.

 

[Scooch]

Take out every other argument. I think it comes down to money. Does SU accept 10million in annual revenue, or a 40million payout in a National conference. And, unlike WV, we still will have our nearby travel partners.

We'll see what the money is if this plays out that way. I don't believe it will, personally.

 

[Ernj]

I'm not saying ND is not going to try to get more money from NBC or whoever else wants to carry their home games and the AD has indicated that if conference revenue goes so high that it puts them at a significant competitive disadvantage, that would be a cause to consider a conference. But right now, the only reason they would ever join a conference is if the CFP was open only to conference members. I doubt that is going to happen which is why ND helped orchestrate the current CFP expansion.

Agreed about helping orchestrate the CFP -- they were not going to allow others decide for them that they had to join a conference. They're biggest mistake, which I think was the ACC's biggest mistake was the length of the contract. With how rapidly the $$ amount is going up, they would be better suited to keep the term of the contract shorter so they can re-negotiate sooner for more money.

 

[baggerbob]

True, they could have left. But why would they when they can get a much bigger check in 2 years. One that is near the top of all college football and add another $10-15M from the ACC for all other sports (minus hockey).

They showed they were chasing big bucks when they signed the contract in 1991. They just signed too long a contract that didn't allow them to re-negotiate.

There is a possible leverage for the conference. They really don't have to play the SEC in basketball. The interconference schedule was with the Big 10. This new thing is with the SEC, and was never part of any agreement.