Bubble Tracking -- Week from Feb 13 to Feb 19

[jncuse]

Last thread was getting a little long so I thought I would do one once a weak.

Seeds per the Bracket Matrix - I still view any team on the 9 seed line as being on the bubble. They are in now. but could slip. That could include us, but I feel very confident.

Note for Bracket Matrix -- It is a sliding table with a few brackets that are a week old, so some teams like UConn are naturally going to move down.

To save some time I am just pulling details from ESPN

3rd Last Team Out LSU -- Top 50 Win Opportunity at Home (Let's go AM)

LSU Wins

5th Last team out Kansas St - How much credit is the Big 12 getting? Too much maybe? It does indicate the bubble is thin right now. A 3-8 league member is not that far from an at large. They are a 4 point dog, so it's an important game against a 2-9 league opponenet.

Kansas St Loses


Top 50 Win Opportunity = #10 Seed Michigan vs Purdue. Michigan is only a 1.5 Dog. It blew 2 games against top 50 teams last week. To blow a 3rd in 2 weeks would be crushing.

Michigan Wins

Last 4 In (Play in Game) Washington at Colorado. A reasonable top 50 road win opportunity. I am
interested in how the committee will seed all these decent Pac-12 teams that just beat themselves.

Washignton Loses

 

[creatorsgam]

Really enjoying the bubble break downs, they are great. Thank you for taking the time to research and post.
SUball

 

[jncuse]

9th Team out Clemson. I usually cut off at last 8, but these guys are losing steam. Obviously must win

Clemson Wins

Last 4 in Butler -- Top 50 Win Opportunity at Home . I am surprised to see the line at -3.5 for Butler. That implies they are equals. Does Xavier have injuries?

Butler Loses

Last Team In Cincy -- Not much to say they are an 18 point favourite

Cincy Wins

Last 4 In GW - Top 5o Win Opportunity -- They are really out right now, but this is am example of the delay that happens with the Matrix. But this is a big game for both teams. Obviously for us we want the Bonnies to get it done.

GW Loses, St Bonaventure Wins

 

[jncuse]

6th Last Team Out Alabama - Almost half the last day submissions have Alabama in. Not a team I have been tracking to be honest. They have some nice wins though despite being 5-6 in the SEC... Wichita St, Notre Dame, Clemson (All awayfrom Home) and Texas AM and South Carolina.

Florida is a big fav though.

Alabama Wins - Top 50 Road Win

4th Last Team out -- not much else to say

Vandy Wins


#9 Seed VCU (but sliding to 10,11 or Out) after losing to UMass on Thursday, 18 point fav, not much to say.

VCU Wins


LAST TEAM OUT - Wisconsin. Obviously this road win would put them over the top.

Wisconsin Wins - Top 25 Road Win

 

[jncuse]

#11 Seed Oregon St -- Top 5o win opportunity, but they are a good sized dog on the road. Another typical Pac 12 team, where somebody will always get a top 50 or top 75 win anyway.

Oregon St Loses

7th Team Out Texas Tech -- Top 5o win oppertunity on the road, but 10 point dog

Texas Tech Wins - Top 50 on the Road

8th Team Out at #9 Seed UConn (sliding). GO TULSA. . Tulsa has work to do even if they win.

UConn beats Tulsa by 2. Almost blew a 15 point lead

Valpo is a #12 seed -- any lose they get weakens there possibility to lose in conference toureny and get in

Valparaiso Loses

 

[jncuse]

#9 seed St. Joes -- not much to say... Lasalle is terrible.

St. Joes win's


#12 seed San Diego St - 17.5 point fav

San Diego St Wins

#11 Seed Gonzaga -- This was really big for them -- with no bad losses (yet( a 3rd win against a tourney level team be enough to get them over the top

Gonzaga Loses

 

[jncuse]

#10 Seed - But Sliding off after Thursday loss. Should be an easy game.

St. Mary's Wins

 

[jncuse]

With the bad losses on Thursday the last in / last out on the Matrix is a little off right now. It would appear that eyeballing recent submissions WISCONSIN is currently in, and St. MARY;S is currently out.

Enjoy the games!!

 

[jncuse]

8 seed Wichita St is losing by 9 at home to Northern Iowa.

They have a fairly empty resume -- so if they lose they would move down to the bubble.

 

[MSOrange]

8 seed Wichita St is losing by 9 at home to Northern Iowa.

They have a fairly empty resume -- so if they lose they would move down to the bubble.

Many of their early season losses came when VanVleet was hurt but they are certainly doing themselves no favors losing to Northern Iowa at home and Illinois State.

 

[MSOrange]

Last thread was getting a little long so I thought I would do one once a weak.

Seeds per the Bracket Matrix - I still view any team on the 9 seed line as being on the bubble. They are in now. but could slip. That could include us, but I feel very confident.

Note for Bracket Matrix -- It is a sliding table with a few brackets that are a week old, so some teams like UConn are naturally going to move down.

To save some time I am just pulling details from ESPN

3rd Last Team Out LSU -- Top 50 Win Opportunity at Home (Let's go AM)
View attachment 55484

5th Last team out Kansas St - How much credit is the Big 12 getting? Too much maybe? It does indicate the bubble is thin right now. A 3-8 league member is not that far from an at large. They are a 4 point dog, so it's an important game against a 2-9 league opponenet.

View attachment 55485

Top 50 Win Opportunity = #10 Seed Michigan vs Purdue. Michigan is only a 1.5 Dog. It blew 2 games against top 50 teams last week. To blow a 3rd in 2 weeks would be crushing.

View attachment 55486

Last 4 In (Play in Game) Washington at Colorado. A reasonable top 50 road win opportunity. I am
interested in how the committee will seed all these decent Pac-12 teams that just beat themselves.
View attachment 55487

I would be totally shocked if Kansas State did enough to get in. They are a very inconsistent team. They beat Oklahoma but have come up short in their other big 12 games. Plus their PG Stokes is out injured probably out for the season.

 

[orangenirvana]

So much for Texas A&M being a good win. That team is in a tailspin.

 

[jncuse]

So much for Texas A&M being a good win. That team is in a tailspin.

By season's end we could very well have a higher seed then them. It's moving out of top 25 category.

 

[orangenirvana]

By season's end we could very well have a higher seed then them. It's moving out of top 25 category.

After today A&M is out of the RPI Top 25 for sure.

Splitting next week's games will be important.

 

[jncuse]

LSU will probably back in on the majority of brackets after beating Texas AM.

Northern Iowa did finish off Wichita St (even though wichita St did regain the lead at one point)

Kansas St's weak chances (also further explained in MSOrange Post) above, took a big hit in losing in OT at Oklahoma St.

 

[jncuse]

Many of their early season losses came when VanVleet was hurt but they are certainly doing themselves no favors losing to Northern Iowa at home and Illinois State.

Even if they discount the losses they lack substance. They have one quality win - Utah (at Home)

The rest of the positive was mostly "eye test" as they were not only undefeated in the MWC but they were killing teams. But now the 2 losses take away that feel of dominance.

They will be an interesting resume come next month if they do not win their conference.

 

[jncuse]

For the sins they committed in 2010 and 2011 (beating us and not beating UConn), I have no problem seeing Butler lose again and probably be on the outside looking in at this point.

I was really surprised to see they were a 3.5 point favourite today -- Xavier wiped them by 17.

 

[Moontan]

For the sins they committed in 2010 and 2011 (beating us and not beating UConn), I have no problem seeing Butler lose again and probably be on the outside looking in at this point.

I was really surprised to see they were a 3.5 point favourite today -- Xavier wiped them by 17.

Ugh... an Onuaku injury from another Final Four run... likely the best team in the country.

Suit up Onuaku and Melo in their final season tournaments and there has to be at least one more championship for SU.

 

[jncuse]

One game of note this afternoon that is helpful for us.

St. Bonaventure won at home against #12 seed GW. This keeps them in the top 50 of the RPI, and knocks down a team that was in.

 

[jncuse]

Wisconsin up 16 AT Maryland.

Seems like they have figured it out.

 

[jncuse]

Results are posted under the game boxes.

Huge win for Alabama as a 9 point dog (seemed high) . 15-9, 6-6 in the SEC, does not strike you as a tourney team. But they now have 6 top 50 wins including 4 on the road/neutral.

I think they are in as of now.

 

[MSOrange]

Results are posted under the game boxes.

Huge win for Alabama as a 9 point dog (seemed high) . 15-9, 6-6 in the SEC, does not strike you as a tourney team. But they now have 6 top 50 wins including 4 on the road/neutral.

I think they are in as of now.

The question is will anybody in Alabama actually notice? Especially with spring practice coming up! Avery Johnson cracks me up so kinda hope he does okay there.

 

[creatorsgam]

The question is will anybody in Alabama actually notice? Especially with spring practice coming up! Avery Johnson cracks me up so kinda hope he does okay there.

David Robinson does a hilarious Avery Johnson impression. If you have never heard/seen it, Google it. Definitely worth it.

 

[Alsacs]

Wisconsin is now a NCAA tourney team. They have wins at SU/UMD, neutral over VCU and beat Michigan State/Indiana at home.

Look at Maryland's resume they are ranked 2nd and their 3 best wins. 1. Iowa-home, 2. UConn-MSG, 3. @Wisconsin.

They have such a thin resume right now should be a 4 seed if the committee looks at the numbers, Syracuse has better wins than Maryland right now. Now Maryland has the talent to win it all but they don't have the resume and are all eye test right now.

 

[pearl31]

Wiscy definitely in for now... I would have to think Wich St's resume is just not good enough, they'll have to win that MVC tourney... I think GW is now out and Bonnies in... Alabama is getting very close... ugh A&M