Bubble Watch - Friday Conf Tourney (It's not over)

[JeremyCuse]

Rhode Island is the only game you need to worry about. Bona HAS to win that game

14-11 Rhody early in the 1st.

 

[Briancuse]

Rhode Island is the only game you need to worry about. Bona HAS to win that game

I think Uri needs a couple of wins.

 

[Marsh01]

I think Uri needs a couple of wins.

Well with Davidson winning that may become a reality

 

[Briancuse]

Well with Davidson winning that may become a reality

Its not like Uri is going to pick up a quality win though, they still only have two top 50 wins.

 

[Orange2389]

we are no longer in the tourny folks... too much has already happened :/

 

[Marsh01]

Its not like Uri is going to pick up a quality win though, they still only have two top 50 wins.

but they keep winning. Just need them to lose and end it. I mean you could be looking at a doomsday scenario of a Rhode Island Richmond A10 final which means you would get 4 A10 teams in. They need to lose and VCU needs to win that tourney

 

[PoppyHart]

RPI doesn't matter people.

Our biggest problem is lack of neutral/road wins.
That is a legit problem. I just look around these chit
teams and think the committee looks at who you beat.
Just winning games is nice but if you play in an inferior league then you quality non conference wins.

We have better wins.
We lost game because we didn't play cream puffs.
UConn/St.Johns/Georgetown underachievied but they aren't cream puffs.
We get in on the strength of the ACC.

So what does that say about St. Mary's, whose signature win is @ Dayton?

 

[Ryand877]

Matrix has us as first team out now FWIW

 

[jncuse]

The bad news was Davidson.

It was, but it was not the crusher as we still have VCU in our back pcoket. We still have not been passed for the last spot in (matrix or my personal view). But the water is now up to our chin, and we have 3 days to go.

 

[Alsacs]

So what does that say about St. Mary's, whose signature win is @ Dayton?

I agreed with the point you made about St.Mary's.
They should be punished for not scheduling better.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Matrix has us as first team out now FWIW

Kansas st? ...effin Baylor

 

[JeremyCuse]

It was, but it was not the crusher as we still have VCU in our back pcoket. We still have not been passed for the last spot in (matrix or my personal view). But the water is now up to our chin, and we have 3 days to go.

Matrix now has us out.

 

[Alsacs]

it matters when one school is in the 20s and we are in the 80s. it sure as hell matters at that point

No it doesn't. The RPI rewards teams for winning games and winning games on the road.
It's not hard to game if you schedule non dregs and win games.
We lost games to high RPI teams that inflates our RPI.

Dayton beat a bunch of medicore teams and won games on the road. That overinflates their RPI.

Dayton is ahead of us because of winning games against mediocre teams.

Syracuse scheduling decent teams instead of cupcakes hurts us.

 

[jncuse]

An as FYI, I didn't put Rhode Island's game today in the key games, because a win today does not have them clearly pass us (assuming they follow it up with a loss tomorrow). I was trying to isolate just those games that in themselves could immediately push us down a spot to keep a key focus list.

The other games I mentioned just rise the water but can't make us drown today. But if Rhode Island wins today, tomorrow's is absolutely a key game. (Unless of course have already been done in by today's key games)

 

[Orangemen]

Matrix has us as first team out now FWIW

Last 3 years the matrix has missed 1,2, and 3 teams.

5 out of the 6 misses were P5 teams that the matrix left out in favor of mid major schools.

So I'm saying there's a chance...

 

[Marsh01]

I agreed with the point you made about St.Mary's.
They should be punished for not scheduling better.

top 25 all year and ESPN hyped. Thats the only reason(s) they are in

 

[jncuse]

Matrix now has us out.

They do, but if Rhode Island loses they will come back to the field and we pass them. That is why I have it as a tie.

Being first out on the matrix would actually be about the best scenario for us right now. Given that the depth of teams on the bubble below us may be a lot less than year all it would take us is being better than one team in the eyes of the committee.

 

[lincolncuse]

Matrix now has us out.

Would you give up Grimm for a year if we get in?

 

[jncuse]

Re - St. Mary's


With the committgee's acceptance of non RPI metrics it means they had no faith in the RPI as an individual ranking but have faith in other numbers as an individual ranking. It's similar to a change made for many things.
Given apples and oranges, now that they a more trusted individual ranking system, a non P5 team that is highly ranked in KP/SAG/KPI will get in. That #15 accross all those rankings will get any mid major in. It's the best tool they to compare teams. But as discussed in another thread, I think it was PH, they are a good team but they should challenge themselves more. It cost them last year. Perhaps they didn't have time to change their schedule this year. They will still get in because of #15 in those rankings.

But if they were around #35 or #40 the same thing could have happened as last year.

 

[jncuse]

Last 3 years the matrix has missed 1,2, and 3 teams.

5 out of the 6 misses were P5 teams that the matrix left out in favor of mid major schools.

So I'm saying there's a chance...

Unfortunately our main competition above us that we need the committee to slap down are all P5 schools, except one - Rhode Island.. That is why the first one out spot is key...

Last year the mid majors were a big part of the bubble -- and they all basically got hammered.

 

[Orange2389]

No it doesn't. The RPI rewards teams for winning games and winning games on the road.
It's not hard to game if you schedule non dregs and win games.
We lost games to high RPI teams that inflates our RPI.

Dayton beat a bunch of medicore teams and won games on the road. That overinflates their RPI.

Dayton is ahead of us because of winning games against mediocre teams.

Syracuse scheduling decent teams instead of cupcakes hurts us.

again, we have an rpi in the 80s. dayton in the 20s. big difference. we are out of the tourny

 

[Orange2389]

guys its over. start thinking about next year

 

[pearl31]

and remember one at-large matrix slot opens up if MTSU wins that tourney tomorrow

 

[pearl31]

again, we have an rpi in the 80s. dayton in the 20s. big difference. we are out of the tourny

so did you really just go from "we're still in it" to "we're out" within one page of a thread?

 

[orangenirvana]

again, we have an rpi in the 80s. dayton in the 20s. big difference. we are out of the tourny

lol

Not that I disagree that Dayton is in and Syracuse is out. But it has nothing to do with the RPI.