Bubble Watch - Week from Feb 20th to Feb 26th

[jncuse]

hmm, the Vcu/GW and Gonzaga/BYU games are intriguing to me - I mean, isn't there realistically a positive/negative with either outcome of both of those games? BYU is certainly a bubble possibility and one more "profile" win could propel them more... and with GW/VCU, on the surface it would seem safe to root for GW, but they're right there on the bubble too, and them losing wouldn't be a bad thing

Good observations

GW/VCU are basically tied right now on the matrix (I quickly counted it was 8 vs 6 on the last 2o submissions). I think they are both out. So I guess one team or the other will have a chance to play itself in. If I have the choice I will take the home team (home win is less impressive)

BYU / Gonzaga: I think you still go with BYU in that game. I sort of look at it like this -- Gonzaga is 1 slot out (last 4 out), BYU is 3 slots out (outside of last 8). Perhaps if BYU wins they are both 2 slots out -- and they have run out of time to make up ground as an at large in the WCC.

The one thing with the WCC is that they a balance schedule, so if BYU wins so you could equate the 14-4 records when comparing the two and leave it at that ** -- and then compare the OOC which is a clear advantage for Gonzaga (2 fairly good wins, no bad losses), BYU (no good wins, one bad loss)

**Although the teams couldn't have arrived at 14-4 any differently.
- Gonzaga has no bad losses all year (WCC or OOC), but went 0-4 against BYU and St. Mary's.
- BYU goes 3-1 against St Mary's and Gonzaga, but has 3 bad losses in conference (and 4 all year)

I think if BYU wins, it takes them both out.

 

[jncuse]

Latest Consensus Bubble per the Matrix

Last 4 In
Oregon St
Butler
St Bonaventure
Alabama

Last 4 Out (these teams all have similar totals)
VCU
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
George Washington
Temple **


Note - I am not looking at the matrix totals, just eyeballing the recently submitted ones.

** I exclude Temple because I suspect most of their "ins" on the matrix are due to being the conference leader and not as an at large. But they are not far off on the outside as an at large.

 

[jncuse]

Over the last 10 years, there have been 15 instances where a team outside of the consensus received an at-large bid. (about 1.5 a year). I think 2012 was the only year that it was a perfect match. So it means if we are on the bubble on selection sunday it is a good predictor, but no assurance.

Here are the 15 teams that got in and that were left out.

IN

OUT