Feb 26 - Feb 29 Tracking the Bubble + Games

[jncuse]

Based only on brackets updated Tuesday.

Considering Team that have avg 9 seed or below, or are out/in on 2 brackets.

Out of 52 Brackets
NC St 52
Florida St 50
Alabama 50
Missouri 49
St. Mary's 49
St. Bonaventure 49
USC 47
Providence 47
Louisville 47
Kansas St 43
Texas 35
Baylor 22
-------------------------
UCLA 15
Syracuse 15
Mississippi St 15
Washington 9
Boise St 8
Marquette 5
Nebraska 4
Temple 4
Western Kentucky 4
LSU 2
Maryland 2

 

[jdubs30]

Unfortunately for us, we no longer have a chance for a "statement" win. Beating Clemson looks nice for our metrics, but it won't wow the committee because of no Grantham. I believe if everything stands as it is, we have @BC, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Miami.

Would beating #31 Miami twice be enough? (along with Clemson and @Louisville). Really unfortunate about losing that UNC game. I think that's the big time win we needed.

I don't think you can expect this team to win 3 games in the ACCT.

 

[lincolncuse]

Duke...

 

[NineOneSeven]

Eh think tech was solidly in anyway

Glad they won

 

[bpo57]

Bagley is a big time talent. The rest of that squad - meh.

 

[SoBeCuse]

No Bamba tonight. Louisville I think will lose to Virginia then @ NC St. They should be out of the damn field now but that should seal their fate. Baylor has Kansas St then Oklahoma left. Could be it for them. Providence has Xavier and StJ left. Could be trouble for them. Three potential teams we could leapfrog if we can take care of the last two and another one in ACCT. This all changes day by day and I predicted NIT anyways so I don’t know why I even bother, sigh.

 

[Briancuse]

Eh think tech was solidly in anyway

Glad they won

They were in anyway would help getting them in the top 50.

 

[rocfan44]

They were in anyway would help getting them in the top 50.

I think you mean top 30.

 

[Briancuse]

I think you mean top 30.

I think their rpi was 58 if we could get another top 50 win it would be huge.

 

[rocfan44]

I think their rpi was 58 if we could get another top 50 win it would be huge.

Do you think they really will look at top 50 wins? With the new quadrant system, top 50 is still a quad 2 win which it is now.

 

[Briancuse]

Do you think they really will look at top 50 wins? With the new quadrant system, top 50 is still a quad 2 win which it is now.

I do.

 

[rocfan44]

I do.

Well in that case VT is now 48 so there is your other top 50 win.

 

[MSOrange]

I'm not worried about Texas pulling an upset of KU tonight. Be interesting to see if it hurts them too much or at all with Bamba not playing.

 

[Briancuse]

Well in that case VT is now 48 so there is your other top 50 win.

Not saying it will make a huge difference but every little bit helps.

 

[jdubs30]

Do you think they really will look at top 50 wins? With the new quadrant system, top 50 is still a quad 2 win which it is now.

It's a way to normalize your wins to compare with other teams. I still think they will look at top 50 teams, in addition to the quadrants.

That was a good result for us, VaTech, IMO, was soundly in. And it makes our VaTech look better.

Marquette is a longshot, but tonight would have been the nail in the coffin. But they have so much work to do.

Texas looks toast without Bamba.

 

[jncuse]

Unfortunately for us, we no longer have a chance for a "statement" win. Beating Clemson looks nice for our metrics, but it won't wow the committee because of no Grantham. I believe if everything stands as it is, we have @BC, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Miami.

Would beating #31 Miami twice be enough? (along with Clemson and @Louisville). Really unfortunate about losing that UNC game. I think that's the big time win we needed.

I don't think you can expect this team to win 3 games in the ACCT.

If we win 4 in a row, we don't have to worry, signature or not. I'll agree the UNC win would have been huge, but it doesn't force us to win 5 in a row.

I think part of the problem is we are looking for signature wins, because we had signature wins in the past. But we were more of the exception last year, with other holes that we do not have now.

Some teams above us have signature wins... others don't either, A team like Texas has quantity but nothing elite either.


USC (3) - N Middle Tennessee St, At Oregon, At Utah

St. Bonaventure (4) - at Buffalo, at Syracuse, N Vermont, at Rhode Island

Missouri (6) - at UCF, at South Carolina, vs Tennessee, at Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M

Providence - Xavier, Villanova, at Marquette,

Texas - N Butler, at Alabama, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma

Kansas St 46 - TCU, at Baylor, at Texas

Louisville 46 - at Florida St, at Notre Dame, at Virginia Tech

Baylor 24 - Creighton, Kansas, at Texas, Texas Tech
-------------------------
UCLA 17 - Kentucky, USC, at Arizona

Syracuse 12 - at Miami, at Louisville

Now we are last in quality wins, but if we win 2 more we will be in the same range as many others on the list above when all is done.

There is nothing easy here, but at the same we are not the only team lacking signature wins.

 

[jncuse]

I'm not worried about Texas pulling an upset of KU tonight. Be interesting to see if it hurts them too much or at all with Bamba not playing.

Texas is the one team I am hoping to catch (if we get 2 quality wins). If they lose to West Virginia next game, they will probably be in a must win game in the B12 tourney

 

[jncuse]

I don't think they will look at top 50 wins anymore, but for teams on the bubble they closely dissect quad 1 and quad 2 wins anyway. They always talk against wins against the field, so that is where the Virginia Tech win will get valued. I think sometimes people get carried away with 28 or 33, of 48 vs 53.

They are just starting points and then they look deeper.

 

[jncuse]

What we really need more than anything is the teams USC and below to have a bad week.

Last Saturday started well and then it turned.

 

[pearl31]

Based on latest bracket matrix, only considering brackets updated today after the UCLA loss.

There were 55 brackets updated before this morning. This is where we stand.

Out of 55 Brackets
NC St 55
St. Mary's 53
Alabama 52
Virginia Tech 52
USC 52
St. Bonaventure 51
Missouri 50
Providence 50
Texas 50
Kansas St 46
Louisville 46
Baylor 24
-------------------------
UCLA 17
Syracuse 12
Washington 11
Mississippi St 9
Boise St 6
Nebraska 5
Temple 5
Western Kentucky 3
Marquette 2
LSU 2
Utah 2

3 of those teams play tonight
Texas at Kansas
Duke at Virginia Tech
Marquette at Georgetown

ugh.
where were we in relation to UCLA a week ago?

 

[jncuse]

At this point, I will admit I likely undersold what I thought we needed to accomplish back in early January. I was extremely confident that 9-9 in the ACC would basically be a lock, no matte the ACC tourney... that will still get us an RPI in the mid 30's as RPI forecast projected, but I did not expect it to result in our win quality profile being that much lower than the rest of the bubble. The balance in the SEC and B12 is really screwing with things and making it easier for them to get quality wins.

I knew that the SEC and B12 would get many seeds (probably called for 14 or 15 if I looked back), but the Conference RPI gap at December 31, must have been a bit larger than I thought it was. The SEC and the B12 are really benefiting from the RPI multiplier effect and this year the ACC isn't really. Other factors:
- ACC is more top heavy then the SEC and B12, which reduces the ability to get quality wins. Every road win in the SEC and B12 is almost a quad one because it is so balanced.
- The SEC/B12 challenge added to the multiple effect.

We may still find we are in good shape next Monday at 9-9. based on what others do.

Of course, getting wins on the court will be a problem.

 

[jncuse]

I think Tuesday could be a swing night -- SEC and B12 bubble all over the schedule.

 

[jncuse]

 

[jncuse]

Each of the above games could go our way... or the other way.

I would like 3 of the following 4 to lose - Kansas St, Missouri, Alabama, Baylor.

 

[20Plus]

Bagley is a big time talent. The rest of that squad - meh.

This is nonsense