Ken Pomeroy ranks us 12th

[Cusefan0307]

to start the season... Agreed that we will be elite defensively, but I suspect to be better than the 31st most efficient offense.

2017 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

 

[Brooky03]

I usually dislike most things KenPom but he's been the closest I've seen to ranking this team where it belongs. Maybe he's starting to be less sucky.

 

[Knicks411]

to start the season... Agreed that we will be elite defensively, but I suspect to be better than the 31st most efficient offense.

2017 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

I hope so, but for a projection system, they're generally going to look at the past, and we haven't been very good offensively for a few years, so I get it.

As I texted my brother last night, we're 12th in the country. And fifth in the ACC. Going to be a beast of a year

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

to start the season... Agreed that we will be elite defensively, but I suspect to be better than the 31st most efficient offense.

2017 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

Always looking for opportunities to post this classic, thanks Ken.

 

[RF2044]

Feels a bit low, but a good starting point.

I honestly believe that barring injury, the only thing that will hold this team back is team chemistry / whether or not they gel on the court. Not suggesting that they won't or that there are chemistry issues, but right now that is the big unknown.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Feels a bit low, but a good starting point.

I honestly believe that barring injury, the only thing that will hold this team back is team chemistry / whether or not they gel on the court. Not suggesting that they won't or that there are chemistry issues, but right now that is the big unknown.

and you can say that for just about every elite program in the one and done era.

 

[Cusefan0307]

He may very well be the closest when it comes to projections, but according to Donna's article today that isn't even factoring in the addition of White and Gillon. His analyis is based off the last 9 years, returning players, and incoming recruits rating. He may very well have us underrated.

 

[Knicks411]

Feels a bit low, but a good starting point.

I honestly believe that barring injury, the only thing that will hold this team back is team chemistry / whether or not they gel on the court. Not suggesting that they won't or that there are chemistry issues, but right now that is the big unknown.

Yeah I would say just because you have so many new players coming in, and even for some of the guys who are coming back, some of them will be playing new/expanded roles (Lydon, Howard I'm thinking here.)

The difference between 12th or 8th or 16th right now is essentially nothing anyway. We're probably going to be really good this year. That's enough for me right now

 

[pfister1]

to start the season... Agreed that we will be elite defensively, but I suspect to be better than the 31st most efficient offense.

2017 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

Find it interesting that he ranks us elite defensively. I think we have the pieces to be elite defensively in March, but I assume with all of the new faces we'll struggle some out of the gate and end up being carried a bit more by our offense until guys figure it out.

 

[Knicks411]

Find it interesting that he ranks us elite defensively. I think we have the pieces to be elite defensively in March, but I assume with all of the new faces we'll struggle some out of the gate and end up being carried a bit more by our offense until guys figure it out.

We've been a top 20 defense in each of the last 7 seasons, a projection system is going to like that. Lydon and Coleman were both top 125 in block% last season and they're coming back, and Chukwu had a higher block rate than either of them as a freshmen. 5 might seem a tad high, if only because we're generally closer to 15 than 5, but I think if it's generous it's only generous by a few slots.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Interesting that he has our tempo rated very close to slowest in the nation. It does not appear that is the plan for JB this year. Some of it is caused by the zone slowing opposing teams down, but for us to be the 313th team tempo wise, our offensive would have to be a big part of it too.

I hate to say it, because I know everyone likes this rating better than the other ones, it is probably the least reliable right now. His system requires significant game data to be useful and it just doesn't exist yet.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Interesting that he has our tempo rated very close to slowest in the nation. It does not appear that is the plan for JB this year. Some of it is caused by the zone slowing opposing teams down, but for us to be the 313th team tempo wise, our offensive would have to be a big part of it too.

I hate to say it, because I know everyone likes this rating better than the other ones, it is probably the least reliable right now. His system requires significant game data to be useful and it just doesn't exist yet.

It's based on the last 9 years, returning players, and recruits signed. There is some math involved, compared to just using human analysis.

 

[Knicks411]

Interesting that he has our tempo rated very close to slowest in the nation. It does not appear that is the plan for JB this year. Some of it is caused by the zone slowing opposing teams down, but for us to be the 313th team tempo wise, our offensive would have to be a big part of it too.

I hate to say it, because I know everyone likes this rating better than the other ones, it is probably the least reliable right now. His system requires significant game data to be useful and it just doesn't exist yet.

We ranked 322nd last year, 109th the year before, 345th in 2014, 248th in 2013, etc.

Obviously it's impossible to model totally, but past history would indicate that we'll probably be a toward the bottom in tempo. (which is odd, because not that long ago we were top 25 in tempo every year)

 

[LPOrange]

12 Step Program (to quit you babe) by the always awesome Nick Lowe ("Cruel to be Kind", "What's So Funny ['bout Peace, Love, and Understanding]")

 

[longtimefan]

It's based on the last 9 years, returning players, and recruits signed. There is some math involved, compared to just using human analysis.

This is a fairly new development (3-4 years?) for him. In the past, he started from ground zero and waited for on-the-court results to begin to flesh out his ratings.

Edit: Turns out he's been doing pre-season for 7 years. Time certainly flies at my age.

 

[longtimefan]

He may very well be the closest when it comes to projections, but according to Donna's article today that isn't even factoring in the addition of White and Gillon. His analyis is based off the last 9 years, returning players, and incoming recruits rating. He may very well have us underrated.

KenPom's blog says that he is including transfers in his calculations:
The kenpom.com blog

 

[NYCorange]

We ranked 322nd last year, 109th the year before, 345th in 2014, 248th in 2013, etc.

Obviously it's impossible to model totally, but past history would indicate that we'll probably be a toward the bottom in tempo. (which is odd, because not that long ago we were top 25 in tempo every year)

We'll almost always be toward the bottom of tempo. If we're not, it's probably a bad sign. Tempo is not solely a measure of how much you run, but of how many possessions your average game has. Thus, it also takes into account how quickly your opponent shoots. There's a very strong correlation between having a good defense and forcing your opponent to take a long time to find a good look. The top 5 defenses in his rankings last year were Wichita State, Louisville, Kansas, San Diego State, and Villanova. Their respective tempos were 301, 296, 146, 313, and 267. At least 3 of those teams (Louisville, Kansas, and Villanova) are associated with uptempo basketball, but they all had moderately to extremely slow "tempo" in his ratings.

tl;dr we may run more, but our tempo will still hopefully be low as a result of an elite defense.

 

[Knicks411]

We'll almost always be toward the bottom of tempo. If we're not, it's probably a bad sign. Tempo is not solely a measure of how much you run, but of how many possessions your average game has. Thus, it also takes into account how quickly your opponent shoots. There's a very strong correlation between having a good defense and forcing your opponent to take a long time to find a good look. The top 5 defenses in his rankings last year were Wichita State, Louisville, Kansas, San Diego State, and Villanova. Their respective tempos were 301, 296, 146, 313, and 267. At least 3 of those teams (Louisville, Kansas, and Villanova) are associated with uptempo basketball, but they all had moderately to extremely slow "tempo" in his ratings.

tl;dr we may run more, but our tempo will still hopefully be low as a result of an elite defense.

It's weird too, because in 2010 for instance, we were 15th in defense, and 54th in tempo. From 2010 to 2011 there was a huge drop in tempo (we went from 54th to 185th in 2011, and that 185th is our highest ranking since then).

To your point, for the last few years, Pomeroy has tracked length of offensive/defensive possession. Here are our rankings

2010: 322nd
2011: 343rd
2012: 345th
2013: 345th
2014: 351st
2015: 331st
2016: 351st

Now, part of that is because we allow a lot of offensive rebounds, but its more because we make teams take a long time to get a shot off.

And in case anyone is curious about how the shot clock has affected things; we ranked 351st in both 2014 and 16. In 2014, that possession length was 21.1 seconds, last year, nearly 2 seconds shorter, 19.2.