LaxMag Bracketology 041718

[OrangeXtreme]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) AMERICA EAST/Albany vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac
(8) Villanova vs. Johns Hopkins

Hempstead, N.Y.
(5) Syracuse vs. Penn
(4) IVY/Yale vs. Bucknell

Annapolis, Md.
(3) Duke vs. COLONIAL/UMass
(6) PATRIOT/Loyola vs. Cornell

Annapolis, Md.
(7) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Denver
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond

Last four in: Johns Hopkins, Cornell, Penn, Bucknell
First four out: Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia, Navy

Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2), Big Ten (2), Patriot (2)

Moving in: Penn, Richmond, Saint Joseph’s
Moving out: Bryant, Jacksonville, Rutgers

Bracketology: The Numbers Don't Lie, Or Do They?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) AMERICA EAST/Albany vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s-METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac
(8) Villanova vs. Johns Hopkins

Hempstead, N.Y.
(5) Syracuse vs. Penn
(4) IVY/Yale vs. Bucknell

Annapolis, Md.
(3) Duke vs. COLONIAL/UMass
(6) PATRIOT/Loyola vs. Cornell

Annapolis, Md.
(7) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Denver
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond

Last four in: Johns Hopkins, Cornell, Penn, Bucknell
First four out: Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia, Navy

Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2), Big Ten (2), Patriot (2)

Moving in: Penn, Richmond, Saint Joseph’s
Moving out: Bryant, Jacksonville, Rutgers

Bracketology: The Numbers Don't Lie, Or Do They?

Interesting that JHU despite winning 7 straight is one of the last teams win and not hosting a game. Then you take a look at their schedule and see that their best wins are us, UVA and I guess Rutgers? Princeton and Towson have both been pretty bad this year and Ohio State has really struggled as well. There game against Maryland on 4/28/18 could be huge as I don't think beating Michigan this week will do all that much either way.

A little surprised Penn is in as an at large. They have some nice wins vs Duke, Navy and Bucknell but have struggled a bit down the stretch. The good news for them is they like us have played a very difficult schedule so I think thats helping a lot. They play a good St. Joes team tonight that I think they have to win because their remaining Ivy league game is against Dartmouh which will only hurt their numbers.

As for us, we need to take care of business or our # will keep slipping. If Cornell keeps it rolling its hard to see how they don't pass us and get a 4 or a 5 which would drop us to 6 or lower. If your Syracuse you want to avoid the 7 or 8 seed which would put us on track to see Maryland or Albany in the 2nd round, both are bad matchups.

 

[Hoo's That]

Still with the Penn love?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Still with the Penn love?

There SOS is helping them out a lot, I think they need to win tonight though and get at least 1 win in the Ivy tourney. That loss to Brown is going to hurt along with getting dusted by Cornell and Yale versus losing a close game.

 

[Orangello]

I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

[MD Cuse Fan]

Interesting that JHU despite winning 7 straight is one of the last teams win and not hosting a game. Then you take a look at their schedule and see that their best wins are us, UVA and I guess Rutgers? Princeton and Towson have both been pretty bad this year and Ohio State has really struggled as well. There game against Maryland on 4/28/18 could be huge as I don't think beating Michigan this week will do all that much either way.

A little surprised Penn is in as an at large. They have some nice wins vs Duke, Navy and Bucknell but have struggled a bit down the stretch. The good news for them is they like us have played a very difficult schedule so I think thats helping a lot. They play a good St. Joes team tonight that I think they have to win because their remaining Ivy league game is against Dartmouh which will only hurt their numbers.

As for us, we need to take care of business or our # will keep slipping. If Cornell keeps it rolling its hard to see how they don't pass us and get a 4 or a 5 which would drop us to 6 or lower. If your Syracuse you want to avoid the 7 or 8 seed which would put us on track to see Maryland or Albany in the 2nd round, both are bad matchups.

I think you could argue right not that Hopkins best win is against Syracuse. UVA and Rutgers were also both road wins as well but right now neither of those teams are projected to get into the tournament as of now. I agree we don't want to see MD or Albany in the 2nd round but honestly if the Orange can get to the quarterfinals I'm not sure there would be any favorable match-ups.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

So much for Penn...

 

[CreaseRat]

So much for Penn...

definitely knocks them out of the NCAA but they can back door with an Ivy League championship

 

[orange79]

Bad night for the Ivies. Brown leads Providence by 2, late. The Friars tie it up and win it in OT.

Penn has to beat Dartmouth and hope Harvard and/or Brown lose out, just to make the Ivy tournament.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Bonus revised midweek projection:

(1) Albany* vs. St. Joseph’s*/Quinnipiac*
(8) Villanova vs. Hopkins

(5) Syracuse vs. Bucknell
(4) Yale* vs. Penn State

(3) Duke vs. Massachusetts*
(6) Loyola* vs. Cornell

(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver*
(2) Maryland* vs. Richmond*

 

[upperdeck]

Lax doesnt use RPI to seed do they?

 

[Purple Haze]

definitely knocks them out of the NCAA but they can back door with an Ivy League championship

I think you're right - even with the #6 RPI Penn has lost 4 of their last 5 making them a bubble team at best. Couple interesting games coming up that will help sort things out. Navy is in a must win situation - a win against Syracuse puts them in the conversation as an at large with Bucknell (who they beat). And I have to believe the loser of the Rutgers/Penn State game is likewise done. Right now, here's how I see it:

Top 4 seeds: Maryland, Albany, Duke, Cornell (because I think they win out and beat Yale in the Ivy)

Last 4 in: Virginia, (winner of Rutgers/Penn State), Bucknell, Notre Dame

Last 4 out: Villanova, Penn, Penn State, Navy

 

[orange79]

Lax doesnt use RPI to seed do they?

Yes, they do.

 

[upperdeck]

thats what i mean this isnt hockey where only PWR is used. its just another criteria in LAX.

 

[upperdeck]

so ND has to win one of the next 2 to get in
Penn is pretty much done
Does SU get in at 7-7 after such a tough schedule if they lose the last 3?

lots of top RPI teams in trouble now.

 

[orange79]

so ND has to win one of the next 2 to get in
Penn is pretty much done
Does SU get in at 7-7 after such a tough schedule if they lose the last 3?

lots of top RPI teams in trouble now.

I think ND is in trouble. Yes, they have a high RPI, but they have no Top 10 wins, only 2 Top 20 wins, along with a few bad losses. I think they would need to win the ACCT (and beat Army) to could squeak in.

I don't see us losing to Colgate, so I don't think 7-7 is likely on the table. If it is, it will probably be close. Beat UVa, lose to (most likely) Duke, beat Colgate - we're likely in at 9-6. Home game, not so sure. Lose to UVa (on their home field) and beat Colgate and we're 8-6. Bubblicious, for sure. But I think we're in. No home game though, so those who hate the dreaded Sunday night game won't have to kvetch.

Man, I wish we had the last 15 or so seconds of today's game back.

Agreed on Penn, as an at large. Although, today's win probably propelled them into the Ivy tournament (they may have clinched - 3 or 4 teams could finish at 3-3 and I don't care enough to figure out the tie-breakers). A win there, and a loss (most likely to either Yale or Cornell) and they could squeak in also, depending on other tournaments. They have the Duke win, and if they win their first game in the Ivies, they would have 2 Top 10 wins, and 5 Top 20 wins.