Let me preface this by saying I will not be at all surpised if Michigan were to win

[Orangemen]

That being said, I really do not see us losing this game.

Looking at the teams in the FF, Michigan is absolutely the team I would want to play first. Tough in your face defensive teams worry me. Michigan is not that kind of team. From what I know about the Shockers, they fit more into that category than Mich does.

I think we are going to bottle Mich up just like we have done with everyone in this tournament. This defense is getting a lot of pub right now, but I think most of it is missing the main point. This team is playing D at an insanely high level right now. Beyond anything any SU team has ever done.

Look what happened to Montana, worst loss by a 14 seed or better in the history of the tourney.

Look at Cal. They never challenged in a game where SU was very sluggish offensively.

Look at IU. They were one of the top 5 offenses in all of college ball this year. They were completely inept against this D.

Look at Marq. They put up 74 points on us a month or so ago. In the tourney, they put up an almost unthinkable 39 points.

This defensive run is amazing.

Our offense has always been suspect, and frankly, it still is. But with a D like this, it does not matter.

Michigan is an excellent team, and if our D is not sharp, we can absolutely lose this game, but I just don't see it. Their own fans have said how they can be undisciplined at times. How will they react if the zone starts bottling them up, and the glare of the FF starts to get to them? I think we are going to find out tonight, and I don't think it will go well for them.

 

[orangenirvana]

Which ever team executes better on offense wins.

Preventing turnovers and making open jump shots.

It's that simple. These teams are very comparable from a talent level and coaching standpoint.

 

[jdubs30]

I hope/think you're right. Michigan has Trey Burke though, and we haven't faced anyone like him all year. They also can have 4 shooters on the floor (much like IU in this regard, except they have Burke getting them the ball).

It's simple; if they make 3s, they'll probably win; if they don't, we'll probably win.

 

[texascpa]

I would be surprised.

 

[Toga]

Don't miss any dunks. None.

 

[mountaincuse]

I think transition will be the key.

If we play at the level we have been we will be getting plenty of steals and run outs.

If they can get the ball up the court quick before the zone is able to get set they will get some easy points and wing threes.

Gotta keep them out of transition.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I hope/think you're right. Michigan has Trey Burke though, and we haven't faced anyone like him all year. They also can have 4 shooters on the floor (much like IU in this regard, except they have Burke getting them the ball).

It's simple; if they make 3s, they'll probably win; if they don't, we'll probably win.

I think Burke and Russ Smith have some similarities. Burke doesn't have a Siva to complement him and take a bulk of the defensive duties though

 

[jdubs30]

I think Burke and Russ Smith have some similarities. Burke doesn't have a Siva to complement him and take a bulk of the defensive duties though

And Siva runs the offense when their both in, it allows Smith to move without the ball and get open. Smith is a fantastic player, but I think overall Burke is better.

 

[jdubs30]

The real question, how quick is Trey Burke? He can't be that mch quicker than Siva can he? Because people think he'll be able to penetrate with his quickness, but no guard has really been able to do that all year (Boatright had his moments). Most of Smith's points against us seemed to come from jumpshots or transition.

 

[ImperialOrange]

And Siva runs the offense when their both in, it allows Smith to move without the ball and get open. Smith is a fantastic player, but I think overall Burke is better.

Burke is a more complete player stat wise for sure. I'm just curious if Smith would look similar if he didn't have his side kick. To your other point, Burke can't be any quicker than Siva and probably similar to Smith but our defense only has to account for one facilitator/scorer vs UM vs 2 for Lville so I think we'll be ok with it.

 

[jdubs30]

Burke is a more complete player stat wise for sure. I'm just curious if Smith would look similar if he didn't have his side kick. To your other point, Burke can't be any quicker than Siva and probably similar to Smith but our defense only has to account for one facilitator/scorer vs UM vs 2 for Lville so I think we'll be ok with it.

I do think Siva is a bit overrated nationally, but he's still a really good player. If we can hold Burke close to what we hold Siva to, we'll win. Louisville can afford Siva not to score against us and still have a chance, Michigan can't afford to have Burke not score. You're right, Ville has 2 facilitators and that makes it harder for the zone.

 

[longislandcuse]

It's just the nature of the beast. We will always find someone, especially against really good teams in the Final 4 who has someone we are fearful of stopping. In order of what we would rather not go up against in the tourney I think it goes:

1) A great defensive team
2)An Otto Porter like player a team can put at the high post
3) An elite point guard
4) A team with a familiarity against us
5) A team with great shooters
6) A team with a big time post presence.

All these teams we've faced Sweet 16 on in have/will have some combination of these attributes. IMO, Michigan has 3, 5 and 6. L'Ville has 1,2 and 4. Don't know enough about Wichita St. except they are great defensively and can rebound like crazy. Marquette had 1,4 and 6. Indiana had 2, 5 and 6 or at least we thought.

I can't imagine Trey Burke is that much quicker than the backcourt duo of Siva/Smith who we've played 3 times and who also know our defense. Burke is great, no lie, but we shouldnt be taken by surprise when we face the quickness of Michigan's guards.

 

[jdubs30]

It's just the nature of the beast. We will always find someone, especially against really good teams in the Final 4 who has someone we are fearful of stopping. In order of what we would rather not go up against in the tourney I think it goes:

1) A great defensive team
2)An Otto Porter like player a team can put at the high post
3) An elite point guard
4) A team with a familiarity against us
5) A team with great shooters
6) A team with a big time post presence.

All these teams we've faced Sweet 16 on in have/will have some combination of these attributes. IMO, Michigan has 3, 5 and 6. L'Ville has 1,2 and 4. Don't know enough about Wichita St. except they are great defensively and can rebound like crazy. Marquette had 1,4 and 6. Indiana had 2, 5 and 6 or at least we thought.

I can't imagine Trey Burke is that much quicker than the backcourt dup of Siva/Smith who we've played 3 times and who also know our defense. Burke is great, no lie, but we shouldnt be taken by surprise when we face the quickness of Michigan's guards.

Boatright and Napier got to where they wanted against us, but I'm hoping that was moreso us not giving 100% as opposed to them figuring out the zone (they haven't in the past). A scouting report I read about Michigan said that if you keep Burke in front of you (big if) and make him pass over the top, he can really struggle.

WSU is scary. Like you ssaid, great rebounding and defense, plus Armstread is extremely difficult to guard.

I think MIchigan might have #2 as well. We'll see how GR3 and/or Hardaway does in the high post, they aren't Otto Porter, but they should be capable.

 

[longislandcuse]

Boatright and Napier got to where they wanted against us, but I'm hoping that was moreso us not giving 100% as opposed to them figuring out the zone (they haven't in the past). A scouting report I read about Michigan said that if you keep Burke in front of you (big if) and make him pass over the top, he can really struggle.

WSU is scary. Like you ssaid, great rebounding and defense, plus Armstread is extremely difficult to guard.

I think MIchigan might have #2 as well. We'll see how GR3 and/or Hardaway does in the high post, they aren't Otto Porter, but they should be capable.

Yea, im assuming (hoping) the UCONN game was due to us just struggling overall and it effected everything. We are obviously light years better on defense than we were then i.e. the Marquette rematch. Boatright/Napier have also faced us plenty of times. Burke and co. have never seen anything like this.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Yea, im assuming (hoping) the UCONN game was due to us just struggling overall and it effected everything. We are obviously light years better on defense than we were then i.e. the Marquette rematch. Boatright/Napier have also faced us plenty of times. Burke and co. have never seen anything like this.

I think it's funny that the UConn game keeps coming up because they shot out of their minds in that game and still only put up 66 points. We meanwhile had our worst shooting game of the year and only lost by 8. If you tell me one team shoots 47% from the floor and 57% from 3 while the other shoots 35%/17% I would expect a much larger scoring margin than 8 points. Also, that 8 points is the exact difference in free throws for that game.

 

[jdubs30]

I think it's funny that the UConn game keeps coming up because they shot out of their minds in that game and still only put up 66 points. We meanwhile had our worst shooting game of the year and only lost by 8. If you tell me one team shoots 47% from the floor and 57% from 3 while the other shoots 35%/17% I would expect a much larger scoring margin than 8 points. Also, that 8 points is the exact difference in free throws for that game.

Eh. I see what you're saying, but Boatright played fantastic (for once); I'm not really debating the result, I'm just hoping that it was a case of our zone being lazy because it was a mid-week February game as opposed to their guards being really,r eally good and figuring out how to penetrate the zone.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Eh. I see what you're saying, but Boatright played fantastic (for once); I'm not really debating the result, I'm just hoping that it was a case of our zone being lazy because it was a mid-week February game as opposed to their guards being really,r eally good and figuring out how to penetrate the zone.

They just played better that day. They brought their A game and we showed up with our F game on offense. If we shot 30% from 3 we probably would've won. We were down 6 with the ball and 1:52 left and didn't hit a basket the rest of the way. We even had a possession where we missed 3 times and had 3 offensive boards before turning it over.

 

[alphaorange]

I am simply not worried about Michigan's offense. If we shoot decently, we win. If we shoot well, we win going away. Every single team always feels they have the solution..the plan...the players. Then as they fall to the wayside, they are forced to admit that they haven't seen that kind of length, movement, athleticism, or zone. The way we are playing now forces teams to be nearly perfect on all aspects of their offense. It requires very quick and correct decisions, precision in execution, and the shots to fall. Too many things have to go right to score against the defense SU has been playing in the tournament. Defense will be fine. We need to value the ball and score.