Manipulating the NET

[orangenauburn]

 

[PhatOrange]

You could probably do something with discounting points the larger the differential is (IE, the 5 point difference between a 30 point and 35 point win is not as relevant as the 5 points between 2 and 7, for instance) but fundamentally I can't agree with the idea that a 10 point and 35 point win arent the same. If I'm looking at two teams who played similar schedules and one team has an average net rating of 35 and the other is at 10, I'm going to think the team at 35 is much better.

They key word you used in here is 'similar schedules'. That's the problem with NET. It's not looking at similar schedules. SOS in the top 20 or 25 should be weighted then.

I've been on the winning side of 15/20 point game differentials. We could've won by 50. So one team takes their foot off the gas and one team doesn't. It doesn't mean anything other than poor sportsmanship.

 

[pokercuse08]

I've been on the winning side of 15/20 point game differentials. We could've won by 50. So one team takes their foot off the gas and one team doesn't. It doesn't mean anything other than poor sportsmanship.

Unfortunately, if the committee is going to weigh NET heavily, you just have to blow teams out as badly as possible.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

The 64 team tournament was done 40 (yikes!) year ago? There are exponentially more good players and schools now. Can make the argument just on population growth.

It feels like the NCAA is splitting the atom with all these dumb "metrics" on deciding who is in / out.

It’s a big part of what drives media coverage of college basketball now that the talent is no longer there. This arbitrary figure gives the talking heads something to yammer about and write articles on. Going to 96 would negate a lot of that.

 

[blust2i3d4]

TCU is a good example how Big 12 manipulate NET system. They have 13 OOC game. Record 11-2. But they play 10 cupcakes so they got 10 easy wins by good margin. Then 1-2 on the meaningful games. But OOC record is still respectful 11-2. If they finish the conference above .500 like 10-8, the overall record 21-10 will send TCU to NCAA tournament. Basically only top Big 12 schools do the heavy lifting, all other schools just pile up wins against cupcakes.

 

[Knicks411]

They key word you used in here is 'similar schedules'. That's the problem with NET. It's not looking at similar schedules. SOS in the top 20 or 25 should be weighted then.

I've been on the winning side of 15/20 point game differentials. We could've won by 50. So one team takes their foot off the gas and one team doesn't. It doesn't mean anything other than poor sportsmanship.

Again, I believe this effect is overstated. I dont think there are a lot of games that end up with 15 point margins that could realistically be 45-50. Certainly there are some games where a team eases up at the end, but I would be very interested to see how often this happens, how much it only goes in one direction, and what kind of impact it would really have if they did something like the Cleaning the glass garbage time. This is their definition of garbage team for NBA. Would be interested to see if the NCAA can implement something like this.

The exact definition CTG uses is: the game has to be in the 4th quarter, the score differential has to be >= 25 for minutes 12-9, >= 20 for minutes 9-6, and >= 10 for the remainder of the quarter. Additionally, there have to be two or fewer starters on the floor combined between the two teams.

TCU is a good example how Big 12 manipulate NET system. They have 13 OOC game. Record 11-2. But they play 10 cupcakes so they got 10 easy wins by good margin. Then 1-2 on the meaningful games. But OOC record is still respectful 11-2. If they finish the conference above .500 like 10-8, the overall record 21-10 will sent TCU to NCAA tournament. Basically only top Big 12 schools do the heavy lifting, all other schools just pile up wins against cupcakes.

TCU has crushed a ton of bad teams. (Their first 6 games were against teams in the KP 230 or worse range, they were at home for all 6 and won by an average of 30 points)

But they also beat Houston, the #1 team in the country. They won at Baylor. They've lost games in the Big 12 by 1 point twice (@Texas Tech, #31 in KP, and Iowa State, #11), by 2 points (at Kansas, #15) and by 4 points (at Cincy, #47). It's not enough to just beat up really bad teams. You need to play well against good teams as well. We've consistently been run off the court by good teams.

 

[SWC75]

I can hear what you are saying but after the first weekend there would only be 25% of the teams remaining! Tournament of 64 teams has 16 remaining and tournament of 96 teams (your 50% expansion) would have 24 team remaining. It would sort of be like the "top 25" remaining to play for the championship

If you are going to have an extra round, make it an extra round, not four ridiculous 'play-in' games.

 

[Knicks411]

Again, I believe this effect is overstated. I dont think there are a lot of games that end up with 15 point margins that could realistically be 45-50. Certainly there are some games where a team eases up at the end, but I would be very interested to see how often this happens, how much it only goes in one direction, and what kind of impact it would really have if they did something like the Cleaning the glass garbage time. This is their definition of garbage team for NBA. Would be interested to see if the NCAA can implement something like this.




TCU has crushed a ton of bad teams. (Their first 6 games were against teams in the KP 230 or worse range, they were at home for all 6 and won by an average of 30 points)

But they also beat Houston, the #1 team in the country. They won at Baylor. They've lost games in the Big 12 by 1 point twice (@Texas Tech, #31 in KP, and Iowa State, #11), by 2 points (at Kansas, #15) and by 4 points (at Cincy, #47). It's not enough to just beat up really bad teams. You need to play well against good teams as well. We've consistently been run off the court by good teams.

I was messing around with some of the Ken Pom data, I pulled down the ratings as of 1/1 (as a proxy for the start of conf season; thats when TCU played their final OOC game, fwiw).

TCU has actually improved their rating by nearly 2 points per 100 since conference play, so they've done better in conf play than you would expect based on what happened OOC.

BYU is probably a good example of this effect though. Their rating has fallen by 6.69 points since 1/1 (third largest drop among the P6). They were 3rd in KP on 1/1 and are still 18 now despite not really playing all that well in conf play. Marking that one down when it comes to filling out my brackets in a few week.

 

[pokercuse08]

I was messing around with some of the Ken Pom data, I pulled down the ratings as of 1/1 (as a proxy for the start of conf season; thats when TCU played their final OOC game, fwiw).

TCU has actually improved their rating by nearly 2 points per 100 since conference play, so they've done better in conf play than you would expect based on what happened OOC.

BYU is probably a good example of this effect though. Their rating has fallen by 6.69 points since 1/1 (third largest drop among the P6). They were 3rd in KP on 1/1 and are still 18 now despite not really playing all that well in conf play. Marking that one down when it comes to filling out my brackets in a few week.

You also have to factor in that all the Big 12 teams are benefitting from a bunch of the Big 12 teams having inflated ratings based on their Q4 non-conference strategy, so that's helping all of them maintain their NET rankings (KP is similar) in conference season.

 

[Red2003]

Again, I believe this effect is overstated. I dont think there are a lot of games that end up with 15 point margins that could realistically be 45-50. Certainly there are some games where a team eases up at the end, but I would be very interested to see how often this happens, how much it only goes in one direction, and what kind of impact it would really have if they did something like the Cleaning the glass garbage time. This is their definition of garbage team for NBA. Would be interested to see if the NCAA can implement something like this.




TCU has crushed a ton of bad teams. (Their first 6 games were against teams in the KP 230 or worse range, they were at home for all 6 and won by an average of 30 points)

But they also beat Houston, the #1 team in the country. They won at Baylor. They've lost games in the Big 12 by 1 point twice (@Texas Tech, #31 in KP, and Iowa State, #11), by 2 points (at Kansas, #15) and by 4 points (at Cincy, #47). It's not enough to just beat up really bad teams. You need to play well against good teams as well. We've consistently been run off the court by good teams.

Ok now do Gonzaga. They’re 20 in the net. Make it make sense.

 

[two3zone]

90% posts about "metrics" on here are like what dogs would post about vacuum cleaners. They're not sure what they are, or what they're used for, but they're pretty damned sure that they're evil and out to get them.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

This is my last post on this. Coaches manage the game to win the game, not to win the game by a certain spread. We had a guy here for 47 years that was the master at that.

Hence my original post that the margin of victory part of this is stupid.

Teams should be judged on w/l , quality of opponents…not margins in terms of tournament eligibility. Let the line makers worry about margin

 

[Millhouse]

Teams should be judged on w/l , quality of opponents…not margins in terms of tournament eligibility. Let the line makers worry about margin

Everyone wants the games to mean something. Schedule adjusted winning percentage. Teams with bad luck might be more likely to win going forward but that's not what the tournament is about, it's a reward not a prediction

 

[Fly Rodder]

Teams should be judged on w/l , quality of opponents…not margins in terms of tournament eligibility. Let the line makers worry about margin

How are you measuring quality of opponents?

 

[Fly Rodder]

It seems like most people want something like this:

T-Ranketology 2024 - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

Syracuse is the 19th team out.

T-Rank Methodology Update

Adam Chorlton and Bart Torvik discuss Wisconsin sports, mostly the Badgers.

adamcwisports.blogspot.com

 

[Bayside44]

It’s a big part of what drives media coverage of college basketball now that the talent is no longer there. This arbitrary figure gives the talking heads something to yammer about and write articles on. Going to 96 would negate a lot of that.

Probably true, yet it's still amazing how much airtime can be taken up by so little.

 

[Newhouser]

If you are going to have an extra round, make it an extra round, not four ridiculous 'play-in' games.

I would have 8 play in games - 72 teams get in, the worst 16 at large do play ins and the 8 winners fill out the 64.

 

[5OutFred]

Via "bigunderdogblog" on Twitter, condensed view of bubble matrix and where SU stacks up. As many have mentioned, the schedule, while challenging, is one of the main comparison components keeping this team alive.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

View attachment 238178
Via "bigunderdogblog" on Twitter, condensed view of bubble matrix and where SU stacks up. As many have mentioned, the schedule, while challenging, is one of the main comparison components keeping this team alive.

We’re so close to next 4 out ! Think we’ll celebrate if we can clinch a spot there ?

 

[phreddie]

View attachment 238178
Via "bigunderdogblog" on Twitter, condensed view of bubble matrix and where SU stacks up. As many have mentioned, the schedule, while challenging, is one of the main comparison components keeping this team alive.

What's the difference between Q1A vs Q1(T) ?

 

[5OutFred]

What's the difference between Q1A vs Q1(T) ?

Quad 1A:
Home vs NET Top 15
Neutral vs Top 25
Road vs Top 40

It's a way to place higher value on the top-end of Quad 1 as a resume separator - SU's is the UNC win

 

[Red2003]

View attachment 238178
Via "bigunderdogblog" on Twitter, condensed view of bubble matrix and where SU stacks up. As many have mentioned, the schedule, while challenging, is one of the main comparison components keeping this team alive.

I don't know what BPI is but I hate it

 

[Red2003]

View attachment 238178
Via "bigunderdogblog" on Twitter, condensed view of bubble matrix and where SU stacks up. As many have mentioned, the schedule, while challenging, is one of the main comparison components keeping this team alive.

Those noncon SOS's are something else.

 

[pwong]

 

[djcon57]

Hey! We showed up on Bracket Matrix today.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

1 guy has us in