My Jim Delany decoder ring

[orange79]

Correct 14 isn't a prime number. 14/2= 7, it isn't a prime number. The B1G at 11 was a prime number. All even numbers but the number 2 are composite numbers.

Each 7 team division would be a prime number.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Unless we have morphed into the Fringe alternate universe, there is no freakin' way ND ever ends up in the SEC.

I always thought Swarbrick was an Observer.

 

[Jeepers]

I don't think Kansas and Missouri are out of play. I do think Texas (tech) and Oklahoma (okst) will end up in the Pac. That is good for the Rose Bowl, which is good for the B10. I do think Delany cares a ton about money and fame, but I also think that he knows a strong Pac is good for college football. He would take Texas, but he's also okay with them getting away.

I mentioned Pitt earlier, and here's my theory. I'm almost 100% positive Pitt will never be in the B10. There's no need for Pitt. Now that we are starting to see Delany's true plan, we see he took two new states. Nebraska was too good to pass up, despite bad demographics. But they are a new state. I think we'll see very little doubling up of teams in one state from here on. Except in the Pac, where they have such a small pool to choose from anyway, and Texas politics to look out for the little guys (TTech).

Okay, so no Pitt. People keep mentioning that schools need to be married to each other (Ok/OkSt, UVA/VTech, etc.), which I don't think is true. I think the important part is that they're safe. If he took UNC, SEC would take NCSt. If he takes UVA, SEC takes VTech. Everyone is happy. But a school like Pitt needs a home. Why? Because the last thing Delany wants is political problems with his magnum opus.

So, he wants Pitt safe. Pitt can be in the Leftover League. Nobody complains, but they also aren't a threat to the B10 (PSU). But they need a partner for it to work, so he leaves SU (who has all the negatives we all know--private, lost AAU, etc.). I always thought the SU/Pitt combo was a little weird. Why Pitt? I feel like our fate is now tied to Pitt. Anyway, I'm sure SU must have told the B10 we were invited to the ACC, with a "Hey, we're about to sign, still no?" Someone mentioned that Gross said something like "We're good in the ACC, we don't fit in the B10." I'm going to just assume that that was just BS talk. At least I hope Gross is forward-thinking enough to take a B10 invite, if it came.

The end game? Who knows. His conference still needs to win vs. the SEC. There really are no teams that can change that immediately, besides UT and OK. UVA and UNC are great gets, but they're not football powerhouses to compete with the SEC. They also put a strain on the identity of the B10. So you're not Midwest anymore. But at least you're still Northern. Virginia has turned quite Northern-like, and North Carolina is slowly heading that way as well. But they are both still very southern schools. One of the reasons (IMO) that the SEC is so successful is that they've tapped into southern pride (see: SEC chant). Could be he wants to do the same in the North. Northerners aren't like that, so I'm not so sure.

Oh, I left out ND! Delany and ND are like Ahab and Moby Dick. It could be he has given up on ND and will take the tri-state schools instead to get to NYC. But if you're going to do that, might as well take it slowly and give ND time to change their minds.

Edit: Or RU is good enough and any control they have in NYC is just gravy. NJ still has nearly 9million people.

 

[orangecuse]

Why not? I don't like it but the SEC with Notre Dame would get more than the B1G by far and away. ND may decide they don't want to be in the B1G and would prefer the South Eastern Conference. Nothing is off the table when its all about the $$$$$$$$$$$.

Hmmm...Roman Catholics and Southern Baptists. I can hear the holy Domers now, Bless me Father for I have sinned...

 

[kyleslamb]

If the B1G went UNC and UVA wouldn't it be pushing Notre Dame potentially into the SEC or Pac-12 coffers as the B1G would be full at 16. Thus, the golden cow ND would make either the Pac-12 or SEC a lot more $$$. Isn't the B1G just destabilizing the ACC to force the SEC's hand and set the wheels in motion for the 4 x 16 conferences and ND having to go into the B1G. Taking UNC and UVA would be nice flagship state schools, but would push ND elsewhere.

I don't think the Big Ten would mind Notre Dame going to the Pac-12 at this juncture. I think the Big Ten and Pac-12 are pretty closely affiliated with one another and they'd be willing to stomach that move.

 

[sufan]

I noticed Delany made a couple of points repetitively both Monday and today about expansion. And Delany is typically very calculating, so he might have given us some clues about the Big Ten's plans.

First and foremost, he repeatedly floated the idea of 16 teams. And in both occasions, he mentioned "14 teams is a prime number" and he doesn't like prime numbers. This was a strong inference that they're not happy with 14. And that they're opening East coast offices tells me they're probably not done, though I think we all realize that East is the only way they'd likely go anyhow.

But the other interesting thing is that he's now making a big deal about expanding to contiguous states. If this is a clue, then we can limit Delany's targets to:

Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas, Louisville or Notre Dame, then possibly Connecticut, North Carolina, Duke the Oklahoma schools or Clemson.

Now let's be honest, most of these are non-starters (Pitt, Iowa State, VPI, Mizzou, Kansas, Louisville, the Oklahomas and Clemson). So realistically, that leaves us with Syracuse, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina or Connecticut. And even Connecticut is probably unlikely.

Seems to me there are probably two possibilities: Syracuse/Notre Dame or Virginia/UNC. That's just reading between the Delany lines, though.

I don't think Notre Dame is going to budge unless the SEC strikes or the Big 12 strikes. But if that happens soon, it might change a lot of things and willingness to look at other options.

Good post. It appears MD approached the Big 10 and it seems clear that RU's application to the Big 10 goes back to 2010. In that sense, the Big 10 acted opportunistically as did the SEC when A&M approached them.

Seems like there are several huge possibilities that would trigger additional expansion for the Big 10, but each currently seems unlikely.

1) anything involving U of Texas; doubtful.
2) anything involving ND; doubtful
3) anything involving UVA/UNC; doubtful.

For the SEC: their TV channel is supposed to start in 2014: with a possible large/huge payout increase:
that could create pressure on the UT LHN along with A&M success in playing against major SEC teams.

It also remains to be seen how large the payouts for teams in the new playoffs and championship game will be.


However, the ACC 6 teams of UNC, Duke, NCSU, Wake, UVA, VT seem very close along with GT and Miami, not to mention the northern schools.

So the question is what or who triggers the next move?

FSU might want to join the SEC but does the SEC want them or does FSU want to join a conference located in TX/OK?

 

[007]

I don't think the Big Ten would mind Notre Dame going to the Pac-12 at this juncture. I think the Big Ten and Pac-12 are pretty closely affiliated with one another and they'd be willing to stomach that move.

Hmm...why does it feel like every move Delany has made is about trying to "force" ND's hand? There are large egos at play here in addition to the $$$.

 

[kyleslamb]

Hmm...why does it feel like every move Delany has made is about trying to "force" ND's hand? There are large egos at play here in addition to the $$$.

No doubt about that. This is partly personal for Delany IMHO. I think he's committed to making this work for the Big Ten, but there may be some ulterior motives too.

I don't think the Big Ten has ruled out Notre Dame. After all, I think their plan relies on the ACC being shaken with or without Notre Dame. But I think the Big Ten shaking the ACC has a byproduct of ruffling Notre Dame's plans a bit.

 

[Alsacs]

No doubt about that. This is partly personal for Delany IMHO. I think he's committed to making this work for the Big Ten, but there may be some ulterior motives too.

I don't think the Big Ten has ruled out Notre Dame. After all, I think their plan relies on the ACC being shaken with or without Notre Dame. But I think the Big Ten shaking the ACC has a byproduct of ruffling Notre Dame's plans a bit.

The B1G has to run the gamble that Notre Dame doesn't decide to plug its nose and finally decide on joining a football conference. If ND joined the ACC full-time which is something I don't believe they would do, but if they did the ACC would become a stable conference and the B1G wouldn't be able to destroy the conference. If ND joined the ACC FSU and UNC would be happy and I doubt that any other schools UVA, UNC would be interested in leaving the ACC.

 

[PeteCalvin]

Don't ask me why, but I think SU and ND are tied to each other.

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I thought the same thing, Bees. Just a weird feeling I've had.

 

[kyleslamb]

The B1G has to run the gamble that Notre Dame doesn't decide to plug its nose and finally decide on joining a football conference. If ND joined the ACC full-time which is something I don't believe they would do, but if they did the ACC would become a stable conference and the B1G wouldn't be able to destroy the conference. If ND joined the ACC FSU and UNC would be happy and I doubt that any other schools UVA, UNC would be interested in leaving the ACC.

I think the Big Ten realizes that's a possibility. But if that happens, then major conference expansion will seemingly be done for the time being anyhow until/unless the SEC came calling Virginia Tech (in which case it could start all over). And in that scenario, the Big Ten would be content with the 14 teams it has.

I do want to see what Notre Dame decides. At some point, independence might cease being an option. When that happens, I'll be curious if they stick to the 'East coast identity' or go after the money.

 

[kingottoiii]

Seems to me there are probably two possibilities: Syracuse/Notre Dame or Virginia/UNC. That's just reading between the Delany lines, though.

I don't think Notre Dame is going to budge unless the SEC strikes or the Big 12 strikes. But if that happens soon, it might change a lot of things and willingness to look at other options.

I still don't see how adding schools like MD and RU can significantly increase the $ in B1G school pockets. But assuming that they want to add two more schools I think option #1 is UNC/UVA. I doubt they get either of those two to budge unless the SEC takes FSU. So if the B1G wants to expand, they will have to be proactive. If they really care about moving East and the money is there (where again I don't see how this is all possible), shouldn't the B1G's next move be to take SU and BC? That would totally kick the ACC out of the NE and give the B1G the best BBall conference in all the land. Also it could cause a chain reaction that kills the ACC. But let's assume the ACC decides to stay together. At that point they are down to 11 schools and need to add another. UConn is pointless and would be an outlier so UL would likely be the choice. The result would be the B1G owning the entire Northern part of the country all to itself.

So the B1G can get to 16 and then wait on UNC/UVA/Duke and/or ND/Pitt to become available. At this point I think MD/RU proved expansion is about quantity. So why stop at 16? Having 18 or 20 makes more sense than 16. With 20 you can put 9 of the original 10 B1G FB teams in one division making it like old times. It would essentially be two FB leagues and one round robin BBall league.

Old School
tOSU, Mich, Neb, Mich St, Wiscy, Iowa, Minn, Illinois, NW, Ind

New School
ND, PSU, UVA, UNC, MD, Pitt, SU, BC, UP, RU

The Old is better than the New, but wouldn't they care more about tradition? And it really only effects the B1G CG participants. UP kinda gets screwed but someone has to.

 

[Toga]

I thought the same thing, Bees. Just a weird feeling I've had.

Why?

 

[PeteCalvin]

Why?

It's complicated. Believe it or not, SU is a great brand and it does have pull in SEVERAL of the East Coast markets (as evidenced by our well traveled fan base and our seemingly unlimited home games), not just NYC. The demographics for SU and ND are very similar. We were once part of the fraternity of independents. We're a strong private school brand. We have a history of playing ND in just about every sport at one time or another. There is an underlying rivalry there in recent years in all three major sports. They hate us in bball, we hate them in football.

If ND had a fraternal twin, it would be SU. We aren't quite Danny DeVito to their Schwartzenegger, but they definitely have us on the gridiron and branding. The bottom line is that ND wants to be situated with like-minded schools, and Syracuse fits that bill. That's why they went ACC and not BiG. And if ND does go BiG, ever, they won't want to go with another big state school in a conference already chock full of them. We bring far more to the table than the Pitts, BC's, VA's, MD's, RU's and UConn's in terms of overall quality, history, and sports recognition.

My feeling is that there are only two schools that ND would agree to go BiG with: SU or UNC. And UNC does not fit the contiguous state stipulation, nor do I think they will ever leave the ACC.

My preference is for SU to be right where they are at and for the ACC to be strong and stable. I'm not fond of the BiG. But if they come calling, and ND is your partner...you gotta go.

 

[Alsacs]

It's complicated. Believe it or not, SU is a great brand and it does have pull in SEVERAL of the East Coast markets (as evidenced by our well traveled fan base and our seemingly unlimited home games), not just NYC. The demographics for SU and ND are very similar. We were once part of the fraternity of independents. We're a strong private school brand. We have a history of playing ND in just about every sport at one time or another. There is an underlying rivalry there in recent years in all three major sports. They hate us in bball, we hate them in football.

If ND had a fraternal twin, it would be SU. We aren't quite Danny DeVito to their Schwartzenegger, but they definitely have us on the gridiron and branding. The bottom line is that ND wants to be situated with like-minded schools, and Syracuse fits that bill. That's why they went ACC and not BiG. And if ND does go BiG, ever, they won't want to go with another big state school in a conference already chock full of them. We bring far more to the table than the Pitts, BC's, VA's, MD's, RU's and UConn's in terms of overall quality, history, and sports recognition.

My feeling is that there are only two schools that ND would agree to go BiG with: SU or UNC. And UNC does not fit the contiguous state stipulation, nor do I think they will ever leave the ACC.

My preference is for SU to be right where they are at and for the ACC to be strong and stable. I'm not fond of the BiG. But if they come calling, and ND is your partner...you gotta go.

100% disagree, ND plays BC @BC in their small on campus stadium not at Gillette Stadium 30 miles away and with 25k more seats. ND doesn't play SU @SU instead will only play us 2 for 1 at the Dome or with our home games at 80k stadium 300 miles from the 315. ND doesn't give a crap about SU they only care ND. BC will be the team ND would pick if they had to go to the B1G.

 

[Chip]

7 * 2 = 14 (I.e. not prime)

So we could potentially get screwed over by a man of power who failed 4th grade math?

 

[kyleslamb]

7 * 2 = 14 (I.e. not prime)

So we could potentially get screwed over by a man of power who failed 4th grade math?

I heard him talking about prime numbers but I may have heard him talking about that part at a different portion of the presser. Either way, I had my own brain freeze in not thinking about 14 being divisive by 2

 

[PeteCalvin]

100% disagree, ND plays BC @BC in their small on campus stadium not at Gillette Stadium 30 miles away and with 25k more seats. ND doesn't play SU @SU instead will only play us 2 for 1 at the Dome or with our home games at 80k stadium 300 miles from the 315. ND doesn't give a crap about SU they only care ND. BC will be the team ND would pick if they had to go to the B1G.

But Massachusetts is NOT contiguous. Jersey doesn't border Mass. The road goes through New York.

 

[omniorange]

The continguous part, to me, is referring to PSU...MD...VA...UNC

They want UVa and UNC and if that happens, the SEC takes VT and NCSt.

And if the ACC Armageddon Scenario plays out, basically all of the privates in the East are going to be screwed...us, BC, Duke, and Wake. Only Miami will likely survive.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[raf4488]

UNC would be contiguous if they come along with UVA- maybe they're willing to go past 16

 

[kyleslamb]

The continguous part, to me, is referring to PSU...MD...VA...UNC

They want UVa and UNC and if that happens, the SEC takes VT and NCSt.

And if the ACC Armageddon Scenario plays out, basically all of the privates in the East are going to be screwed...us, BC, Duke, and Wake. Only Miami will likely survive.

Cheers,
Neil

I could really see Duke winding up in the Pac-12 with Notre Dame when all these spots fill out. I still just don't see any other good options for them, other than BYU who they would hate to add.

 

[fairfaxcuse]

The continguous part, to me, is referring to PSU...MD...VA...UNC

They want UVa and UNC and if that happens, the SEC takes VT and NCSt.

And if the ACC Armageddon Scenario plays out, basically all of the privates in the East are going to be screwed...us, BC, Duke, and Wake. Only Miami will likely survive.

Cheers,
Neil

Under that doomsday scenario, where does ND go- the big 12? And what does the Pac 12 do while watching all of this going down? The Pac 12 doesn't want the big 12 to strengthen if they need to find a a partner. Big 10 and Pac 10 have had a strong relationship and I suspect both of those conferences will match each others numbers sooner rather than later.

 

[chakka3421]

I dont think Kyleslamb decoded the cryptic message fully - 17 is the next prime number - and Delaney wouldnt have stated it off the cuff either. They are going with 16 without ND leaving the door open for ND. In fact, I stated earlier when you look at the old mason dixon line, it stops at Maryland. The B10 is becoming the Northern super conference - from Lincoln to Boston/NYC - thats a lot of TV sets locked up by the BTN.

I would bet its Syracuse and Boston College to lock up the NE corridor and lock out - monopoly style - everyone else including the ACC. Monopoly = more $$$. Why Syracuse - locks in NYC (and yes along with Rutgers too sorry all). Why Boston College - locks in Boston metro area and forces ND hand even further. Who borders the state of Mass - NY.

However - as I have stated all along - I would rather see us in the ACC. Money doesnt buy you performance and the B10 has proven that over the last 10 years.

 

[Chip]

Don't ask me why, but I think SU and ND are tied to each other.

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Glad someone feels that way. I don't. If ND wanted to stop a B1G takeover of the ACC they could do it right now.

SU/ND to B1G? Sounds nice, but something in VA/NC seems more plausible to me.

I just think ND is only tied to one school. And that's ND.

 

[chakka3421]

Chip - VA/NC makes no sense to me. Its more about monopoly power - you dont get this in NC and VA. NC and VA to the SEC, much more plausible.