Now, pay attention to what Babers is saying

[OttoinGrotto]

The game was pretty good, but the response is even better.

"We will do what we think we need to do to win," Babers said. "And on that note, going down the road, on fourth down if we have to go for it we have to go for it. But I'm already telling you, after our first game, that we're going to do those things because we're not playing to be close. We're playing to win."

Yes, the system matters, but this mentality is what is needed to move us forward.

BUCKLE UP

 

[Crusty]

The game was pretty good, but the response is even better.

"We will do what we think we need to do to win," Babers said. "And on that note, going down the road, on fourth down if we have to go for it we have to go for it. But I'm already telling you, after our first game, that we're going to do those things because we're not playing to be close. We're playing to win."

Yes, the system matters, but this mentality is what is needed to move us forward.

BUCKLE UP

Amen.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Without risk there can be no reward.

If you do not try out of fear of failure, you will never succeed.

 

[OrangeFoo]

I wonder what folks will say the first time we go for it on 4th from our own 30 and don't convert

I'm going to be pissed but if he's consistent with that strategy then there isn't much I can complain about.

 

[Scooch]

I wonder what folks will say the first time we go for it on 4th from our own 30 and don't convert I'm going to be pissed but if he's consistent with that strategy then there isn't much I can complain about.

Some people will complain because FOOTBALL.

Others will trust in math.

 

[RF2044]

Some people will complain because FOOTBALL.

Others will trust in math.

Spot on.

 

[tipphill]

i am guessing that we do not have the oline that can play at that speed for a game. i think we will some subtle changes in pace and running game

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Some people will complain because FOOTBALL.

Others will trust in math.

90% of people in CNY will not trust in math. Reading the syracuse.com comments makes me understand that. I had a friend text me "people are acting like these guys won a national championship after beating Colgate. What a bunch of losers." I asked him if he had watched the game. Nope. Thought enthusiasm was hilarious, and yet didn't watch any of it.

To me, that's the typical person SU has to win over. People in CNY are way, way too cynical. They don't want to be fans of something, they want to be entertained by something. If Babers brings wins and entertainment, people will come. But they'll have no conception of statistical analysis or what he's trying to do, because they're just surface frontrunners. So out of a gate of 50,000, expect about 15-20,000 to boo those choices, because they don't care, and they don't understand.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Some people will complain because FOOTBALL.

Others will trust in math.

The math doesn't exist since there is no real data. I am pro going for it on 4th down depending on distance, quarter, yard line, score, flow of the game, opponent, etc. But if we are up 2 scores or less against a like opponent with a 4th and 3 at our own 30, the risk is way too much for what will be little reward. On the other side of the ball it is silly to punt inside the 40 unless it is 4th and long. That will be a welcome change.

 

[TheCusian]

i am guessing that we do not have the oline that can play at that speed for a game. i think we will some subtle changes in pace and running game

You will be wrong.

 

[Scooch]

i am guessing that we do not have the oline that can play at that speed for a game. i think we will some subtle changes in pace and running game

A change in pace? Yes... We will play faster.

 

[orangenirvana]

I wonder what folks will say the first time we go for it on 4th from our own 30 and don't convert

I'm going to be pissed but if he's consistent with that strategy then there isn't much I can complain about.

I don't understand your mentality...and I'm thankful for that.

 

[RMH44]

You will be wrong.

Well...he usually is. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

i am guessing that we do not have the oline that can play at that speed for a game. i think we will some subtle changes in pace and running game

This is a drum I think you should continue banging.

 

[CuseOnly]

The math doesn't exist since there is no real data. I am pro going for it on 4th down depending on distance, quarter, yard line, score, flow of the game, opponent, etc. But if we are up 2 scores or less against a like opponent with a 4th and 3 at our own 30, the risk is way too much for what will be little reward. On the other side of the ball it is silly to punt inside the 40 unless it is 4th and long. That will be a welcome change.

So you're saying that there isn't any real data regarding 4th down and going for it as opposed to not going for it?

 

[CuseOnly]

i am guessing that we do not have the oline that can play at that speed for a game. i think we will some subtle changes in pace and running game

Was there anything you liked from Saturday's game and is there anything that the team did under Babers direction that you wouldn't second guess?

 

[HoustonCuse]

I think it was the first time he went for a 4th and 1 or 2, it was hilarious. There wasn't even a pause for a decision. Dungey just immediately ran back, got under center, snapped it, and easily ran around the stunned defense. Boom first down. Loved it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

So you're saying that there isn't any real data regarding 4th down and going for it as opposed to not going for it?

The people that believe that feel the situation needs to be defined extremely narrowly. Sure, maybe there isn't data on what happens if you don't punt when you're up 10 with 8:32 left in the 3rd quarter and your right tackle has the trots and you're playing your back up running back and the defense is in the nickel against a coach that loves to stunt and make passive aggressive comments to the media in post game.

Yeah, what happens then?!?!?!?!!? Do you know?!?!?!?!!

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think it was the first time he went for a 4th and 1 or 2, it was hilarious. There wasn't even a pause for a decision. Dungey just immediately ran back, got under center, snapped it, and easily ran around the stunned defense. Boom first down. Loved it.

The mindset is clear, and it's beautiful.

 

[CuseOnly]

The people that believe that feel the situation needs to be defined extremely narrowly. Sure, maybe there isn't data on what happens if you don't punt when you're up 10 with 8:32 left in the 3rd quarter and your right tackle has the trots and you're playing your back up running back and the defense is in the nickel against a coach that loves to stunt and make passive aggressive comments to the media in post game.

Yeah, what happens then?!?!?!?!!? Do you know?!?!?!?!!

I thought that there was about 100+ years of data that we could draw on, my mistake.

EDIT: Is there a report out there that tells us what players have the trots or the Hershey squirts?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I thought that there was about 100+ years of data that we could draw on, my mistake.

EDIT: Is there a report out there that tells us what players have the trots or the Hershey squirts?

Look for guys listed with lower body injuries.

 

[CuseOnly]

Look for guys listed with lower body injuries.

LOL...almost spit out my drink, thanks!

EDIT: Is that really considered and injury?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The people that believe that feel the situation needs to be defined extremely narrowly. Sure, maybe there isn't data on what happens if you don't punt when you're up 10 with 8:32 left in the 3rd quarter and your right tackle has the trots and you're playing your back up running back and the defense is in the nickel against a coach that loves to stunt and make passive aggressive comments to the media in post game.

Yeah, what happens then?!?!?!?!!? Do you know?!?!?!?!!

Coaches don't go for it on 4th down often, so there is no sample size. That isn't debatable. I am in the coaches should go for it more often camp, but there is no real math just theory.

Also I believe the only simulations out there were for the NFL, where the variance from team to team is very small. So if the conversion average is lets say 60%, the deviation from that will be small. In college there is often a difference in talent on the field. So depending on the team that could mean a 90% rate or 30% rate. Sure the average is 60% but if you are the team that would only convert at a 30% rate then you shouldn't go for it as often as the team that can convert at a 90% clip.

I don't remember exactly what the study said but I believe it was something like:

4th and 1 yard or less always go for it
4th and 2-3 go for it outside your 35
4th and 4-6 go for it in your opponent's territory
4th and 7+ punt or FG

So a 4th and 3 from our own 30 woudl actually go against the "math" provided.

There are a lot of other factors that need to be considered as well. In the NFL if you are inside the 30 a FG is a given. That isn't the case in CFB, so in theory the is even less risk going for it on 4th down. Look at Mississippi State today. Mullen got into FG range and played for a FG. I would never want my HC to do that. Get a TD and don't worry about the snap, a blocked kick, or a missed FG (which happened).

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Coaches don't go for it on 4th down often, so there is no sample size. That isn't debatable. I am in the coaches should go for it more often camp, but there is no real math just theory.

Also I believe the only simulations out there were for the NFL, where the variance from team to team is very small. So if the conversion average is lets say 60%, the deviation from that will be small. In college there is often a difference in talent on the field. So depending on the team that could mean a 90% rate or 30% rate. Sure the average is 60% but if you are the team that would only convert at a 30% rate then you shouldn't go for it as often as the team that can convert at a 90% clip.

I don't remember exactly what the study said but I believe it was something like:

4th and 1 yard or less always go for it
4th and 2-3 go for it outside your 35
4th and 4-6 go for it in your opponent's territory
4th and 7+ punt or FG

So a 4th and 3 from our own 30 woudl actually go against the "math" provided.

There are a lot of other factors that need to be considered as well. In the NFL if you are inside the 30 a FG is a given. That isn't the case in CFB, so in theory the is even less risk going for it on 4th down. Look at Mississippi State today. Mullen got into FG range and played for a FG. I would never want my HC to do that. Get a TD and don't worry about the snap, a blocked kick, or a missed FG (which happened).

Nope, you're over thinking it.

 

[CuseOnly]

Coaches don't go for it on 4th down often, so there is no sample size. That isn't debatable. I am in the coaches should go for it more often camp, but there is no real math just theory.

Also I believe the only simulations out there were for the NFL, where the variance from team to team is very small. So if the conversion average is lets say 60%, the deviation from that will be small. In college there is often a difference in talent on the field. So depending on the team that could mean a 90% rate or 30% rate. Sure the average is 60% but if you are the team that would only convert at a 30% rate then you shouldn't go for it as often as the team that can convert at a 90% clip.

I don't remember exactly what the study said but I believe it was something like:

4th and 1 yard or less always go for it
4th and 2-3 go for it outside your 35
4th and 4-6 go for it in your opponent's territory
4th and 7+ punt or FG

So a 4th and 3 from our own 30 woudl actually go against the "math" provided.

There are a lot of other factors that need to be considered as well. In the NFL if you are inside the 30 a FG is a given. That isn't the case in CFB, so in theory the is even less risk going for it on 4th down. Look at Mississippi State today. Mullen got into FG range and played for a FG. I would never want my HC to do that. Get a TD and don't worry about the snap, a blocked kick, or a missed FG (which happened).

So...you were saying there was no data...sounds like a whole lot of data to me.

We can send humans into space but we still can't figure out the 4th down conversion...got it.