Ranking the ACC "Tier II / Bubble" tourament chances

[AZcuse77]

So we are 18 games in to the season with 13 to go. Some will say it is too early to talk bubble, but being well in to the second half it seems interesting to think how we compare to the other ACC teams that are not locks. As it stands now I don't see the ACC getting 10 teams and maybe not even 9. NCSU was one of those and they went in to a complete free fall with the pitchforks out for Gottfreid. Syracuse was one of those early until our historically bad OOC start but we are back in the conversation. Clemson and Pitt are both off to rough conference starts but arguably had the two hardest schedules to start conference play.

So who do we need to finish in front of? I see 6 teams competing for the last 2-3 spots. Yes the committee says they don't make selections this way but I do think it matters to some degree.

Here's where I see the 3 tiers of ACC teams at this stage broken down by "locks" "bubblicious" and "needs a miracle." They are somewhat ordered (by % chance to make it, not who I think is better).

LOCKS - 6

nd
unc
fla st
louisville
uva
duke

BUBBLICIOUS - 6

mia 2-2 12-4 (W ncsu, L @syr, L nd, W @pitt) destroyed pitt on road for Larranaga's 600th
vtech 2-3 13-4 (W duke, L @ncsu, L @fsu, W syr, L nd) probably lowest ceiling, highest floor of this tier
clem 1-4 11-6 (W @wake, L unc, L @nd, L @gt, L @uva) all competitive games, tough early road schedule
pitt 1-4 12-6 (L nd, W @uva, L @syr, L lou, L mia) tough early schedule, but crushed at home by MIA
syr 3-2 11-7 (L @bc, W mia, W pitt, L @vt, W bc) nice start but awful OOC will require 11-7 ACC and have played zero Tier I teams
gtech 3-2 11-6 (W unc, L @duke, L lou, W clem, W @ncsu) respect for starting 3-2 but poor OOC, prob. least talented

NEEDS A MIRACLE - 3

ncsu 1-4 12-6 (L @mia, W vt, L @unc, L @bc, L gt) in a free fall despite only playing only one tier I ACC team
wake 1-4 10-7 (L @fsu, L clem, W bc, L @uva, L unc) improved but I just don't see it, only ACC win is BC
bc 2-3 9-9 (W syr, L @wake, L @duke, W ncsu, L @syr) better this year but no chance with 6 OOC losses

How would you rank the middle tier right now?

 

[Cuse House]

1) Va Tech
2) Syr
3) everyone else

 

[AZcuse77]

1) Va Tech
2) Syr
3) everyone else

Love the optimism... Obviously an upset at UNC would change things but we just have a much further climb to build our resume than others that can get in with an ACC record like 9-9.

 

[Cuse House]

Love the optimism... Obviously an upset at UNC would change things but we just have a much further climb to build our resume than others.

We've beaten Miami and Pitt. Besides Va Tech, everyone else in the bubble category should be wins (should). I was just comparing to the rest of that list.

 

[AZcuse77]

We've beaten Miami and Pitt. Besides Va Tech, everyone else in the bubble category should be wins (should). I was just comparing to the rest of that list.

I don't see much gap between VTech, Mia, Pitt, and us. The difference was VT was on the road. We looked so awful the couple weeks before that it might have looked like miracle wins even at home (but there appears to be more to that those dreadful weeks than basketball). A middle tier ACC vs middle tier ACC team will always have the home teams significant favorites... but we will need to pick up a couple road wins against Tier I or Tier II teams to get to 11-7 anyways with the schedule getting tougher.

Also as I said I was asking for odds to make the tournament. There is no way we have a better shot at 11-7 than Miami does at 12-4 unless you think we are so much better than Miami due to beating them at home that we project to win that many more games.

 

[AZcuse77]

Does nobody really want to assess our bubble odds? PackPride gets 800 comments a game and has been downtrodden for many years. This site seems to have a lot of really good hardcore fans... maybe its a dumb post but I wonder how people think we stack up against the middle tier. Maybe people are just too upset to see SU not be a top 25 program but it'd still matter to see them finish strong with the transition coming.

 

[Briancuse]

Does nobody really want to assess our bubble odds? PackPride gets 800 comments a game and has been downtrodden for many years. This site seems to have a lot of really good hardcore fans... maybe its a dumb post but I wonder how people think we stack up against the middle tier. Maybe people are just too upset to see SU not be a top 25 program but it'd still matter to see them finish strong with the transition coming.

Non existent.