Using Baylor to predict SU... | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

Using Baylor to predict SU...

Texas thing overblown? From 2011-2015 there were approximately 660 3 star and above recruits in the "Northeast" (including NJ and PA). Texas had 1,337.

Texas also has a bunch of teams to compete with them. One state vs. a whole region. There's room for one big team in the northeast. Just look at how well psu cherry picked anyone they wanted for years.
 
leftytg said:
3 things. Winning, time, and location location location. Comparing to Baylor is useful in many ways. However, Baylor is located in the middle of Texas and Syracuse is in upstate New York. Baylor will always have a higher potential ceiling than Syracuse, simply due to proximity to 4-5 star recruits. Baylor's most recent class is made up of 19 Texas kids and 2 JUCO's from Kansas.

Texas is so huge it's helpful to think of it as a region rather than a state. (Driving from PA to NY is easier than one side of TX to Baylor).

Baylor was built on 3* kids from Texas. Can we pull enough 3-4* kids from NY/NJ/PA/MD/OH with some back fill from FL to mirror that talent?

(Large asterisk: Football in Texas is religion played all year, in the NE it's not.)
 
cuseincincy said:
Texas thing overblown? From 2011-2015 there were approximately 660 3 star and above recruits in the "Northeast" (including NJ and PA). Texas had 1,337.

Include OH and MD and NEngland states for a fairer comp.
 
sU was injury riddled in 2014, had a mess at offensive coordinator and subpar talent at RB. QKBinjuries both seasons. So how hard would it be for the new staff to do 4 or 5 points better? If that is all we get from the new staff.many here would be hugely disappointed.
 
Texas is so huge it's helpful to think of it as a region rather than a state. (Driving from PA to NY is easier than one side of TX to Baylor).

Baylor was built on 3* kids from Texas. Can we pull enough 3-4* kids from NY/NJ/PA/MD/OH with some back fill from FL to mirror that talent?

(Large asterisk: Football in Texas is religion played all year, in the NE it's not.)
I don't feel like a 3 star kid from Texas or Florida, is the same as a 3 star from NY. I feel like if the 3 star kid from Texas and NY have the same measurables, I'd much, much, rather get the kid from Texas simply due to the fact that he has played against top notch competition. I'm sorry, but the best AA school in NY, would be destroyed by a school of similar size from Texas. I'm not saying NY doesn't have athletes, but the priority on football just isn't there, and either is the amount of games played.
 
cuse309 said:
I don't feel like a 3 star kid from Texas or Florida, is the same as a 3 star from NY. I feel like if the 3 star kid from Texas and NY have the same measurables, I'd much, much, rather get the kid from Texas simply due to the fact that he has played against top notch competition. I'm sorry, but the best AA school in NY, would be destroyed by a school of similar size from Texas. I'm not saying NY doesn't have athletes, but the priority on football just isn't there, and either is the amount of games played.

Than the system is more bunk than we think. That undermines all the studies pro-star people like to point to. A 3* should be the same quality across the country.
 
NY kids are behind in football acumen because they don't practice year round but southern kids have less upside as they are generally as good as they can be aside from some weight and elite coaching. Development of Northern talent must be key, mix in ready talent from the south and a good mix can be had.

Syracuse should have on 6 games or more last year but injuries and poor adjustments ruined the chances. Don't be surprised if Syracuse has a winning record next season.
 
I get their are twice as many, but also like 20x more schools mining that same talent in Texas no?
No. There are actually 2 more, 12 FBS schools in Texas, 10 in the Northeast including NJ & PA.
 
Include OH and MD and NEngland states for a fairer comp.
I did include all of New England. Sorry, SU does not get to claim MD and OH as part of their "region". I get that SU recruits there but so does everyone else. You want to include FL too?
 
I don't feel like a 3 star kid from Texas or Florida, is the same as a 3 star from NY. I feel like if the 3 star kid from Texas and NY have the same measurables, I'd much, much, rather get the kid from Texas simply due to the fact that he has played against top notch competition. I'm sorry, but the best AA school in NY, would be destroyed by a school of similar size from Texas. I'm not saying NY doesn't have athletes, but the priority on football just isn't there, and either is the amount of games played.
Agree 100%. I played HS football in NY. At one of the biggest schools in the state (LPool). At a time when we were one of the best teams in the state. I've also been back to games in NY in the past 10 years. My son played HS football in OH. There is no comparison. The best team in NY would lose handily to many D4 schools in OH. NY just does not have the depth of quality players.
 
Than the system is more bunk than we think. That undermines all the studies pro-star people like to point to. A 3* should be the same quality across the country.
I've always thought the system was bunk to begin with. Not all athletes are measured equally.
 
cuseincincy said:
I did include all of New England. Sorry, SU does not get to claim MD and OH as part of their "region". I get that SU recruits there but so does everyone else. You want to include FL too?

It's 4.5 hour drive to Maryland from Syracuse.
It's a 5.5 hour drive to Akron from Syracuse.
From the southern tip of TX to Baylor it's 6.5.

I'd agree that there the density of 3-5* recruits are closer to Baylor than they are to us. But we get too caught up in the invisible lines that divide the states.
 
I think it's useful to look at Baylor, but there's another thing to remember - Babers now has a blueprint to work with.

This means the learning curve for this type of reclamation project should be shorter, and it also means that he can sell this type of vision and more specifically the offense to recruits.

I am not expecting 10 win seasons right off the bat, but I also would be very disappointed for it to take Syracuse 3 years to make a bowl game.
 
Texas is so huge it's helpful to think of it as a region rather than a state. (Driving from PA to NY is easier than one side of TX to Baylor).

Baylor was built on 3* kids from Texas. Can we pull enough 3-4* kids from NY/NJ/PA/MD/OH with some back fill from FL to mirror that talent?

(Large asterisk: Football in Texas is religion played all year, in the NE it's not.)
I live in Texas, and travel all over the state for work, so I don't need the geography lesson.

You are right, of course, that Texas is a large, large state. However, what you (conveniently?) fail to mention is that vast parts of Texas are sparsely populated. West Texas, in particular, is a giant desert, with very little population between El Paso and, essentially, the I35 corridor. South Texas, below San Antonio, is also sparsely populated.

Baylor is centrally located in the populated part of Texas. Waco is about 2-3 hours south of the Dallas/FW metroplex, an hour north of Austin, 2 hours north of San Antonio, and 3 hours northeast of Houston. That is the #4, #5, #25, and #35 most populous metro areas in the country, all football crazy. You can draw a radius of everything within a 4 hour drive of Waco and it would all the Texas population

This isn't meant as a knock on SU. I'm in no way, shape, or form a Baylor fan. I'm incredibly optimistic about Syracuse's future. But the truth is that due entirely to location, Baylor will always enjoy a high ceiling as a program because of its access to high quality recruits. I agree with what A Clockwork Orange wrote in post #16. Baylor is a useful comparison at this stage. Both schools were coming off a decade plus of dismal showing and were bottom rung P5 programs. Baylor had to build, and it is useful to look at how they did it and what their trajectory looked like. I'm simply saying that there comes a point where Syracuse's path will diverge enough from the path Baylor traveled that comparison's will not be helpful or instructive.

edit: maybe a map is helpful. You see that triangle you can make with the three big red clusters? That's DFW to the north, Houston to the east and Austin/San Antonio to the west. That small red dot in the middle? That's Waco.

Texas_population_map.png
 
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leftytg said:
I live in Texas, and travel all over the state for work, so I don't need the geography lesson. You are right, of course, that Texas is a large, large state. However, what you (conveniently?) fail to mention is that vast parts of Texas are sparsely populated. West Texas, in particular, is a giant desert, with very little population between El Paso and, essentially, the I35 corridor. South Texas, below San Antonio, is also sparsely populated. Baylor is centrally located in the populated part of Texas. Waco is about 2-3 hours south of the Dallas/FW metroplex, an hour north of Austin, 2 hours north of San Antonio, and 3 hours northeast of Houston. That is the #4, #5, #25, and #35 most populous metro areas in the country, all football crazy. You can draw a radius of everything within a 4 hour drive of Waco and it would all the Texas population This isn't meant as a knock on SU. I'm in no way, shape, or form a Baylor fan. I'm incredibly optimistic about Syracuse's future. But the truth is that due entirely to location, Baylor will always enjoy a high ceiling as a program because of its access to high quality recruits. I agree with what A Clockwork Orange wrote in post #16. Baylor is a useful comparison at this stage. Both schools were coming off a decade plus of dismal showing and were bottom rung P5 programs. Baylor had to build, and it is useful to look at how they did it and what their trajectory looked like. I'm simply saying that there comes a point where Syracuse's path will diverge enough from the path Baylor traveled that comparison's will not be helpful or instructive. edit: maybe a map is helpful. You see that triangle you can make with the three big red clusters? That's DFW to the north, Houston to the east and Austin/San Antonio to the west. That small red dot in the middle? That's Waco.

I'm aware of Texas geography.

I'm not saying there isn't more talent in a five-six hour driving radius from Baylor campus. I'm saying if you use the same parameters you're now including parts of MD and OH.

Adding NE/NJ/NY/PA to parts of MD/OH gives you a correct view of what we are up against. If you just say NE/NJ/NY/PA then yeah it's a pretty big difference.

I'd also throw in the fact that if your Baylor, you're selling the driving distance to player/families. Babers is doing that same thing to that 5-6 hour radius. But we play more away games or a wider range than Baylor does.

Is Briles selling that one away game to all those rare talents in West Virginia? Of course not, TX kids can fill out his team pretty easily.

But we play a fair amount of away games in FL, NC, VA, SC. We can and do sell that to kids from the south too.

All in all - I think the recruiting disadvantages for Syracuse are overblown to an extent. Our problem has been winning.
 
Texas thing overblown? From 2011-2015 there were approximately 660 3 star and above recruits in the "Northeast" (including NJ and PA). Texas had 1,337.

It is overblown because they are playing a schedule against other teams that have a ton of Texas kids as well. If Baylor played a bunch of Northeast teams then being in Texas woudl be a HUGE deal. You play your peers.
 
Three teams in Texas finished in the Top 25. Who was the closest in the Northeast? Navy? We don't need 1000+ 3* recruits.
 
I think the Texas thing is overblown re: Syracuse. If we have an exciting team and win, we'll be unique in the northeast. PSU is down. Ash is questionable at RU. WVU is on a b12 island. Uconn is in a lowly conference. Vtech has a new coach. We could easily be *the* team in the northeast if babers turns out as well as we expect.

Boise State has done quite well with 2-3 Star recruits playing in the middle of nowhere. Syracuse's geography deficit is overblown, IMO.
If we can build an exciting, winning brand, along with the established history & tradition in the program, the better recruits will come to Syracuse.
 
Clockwork this is great can you do one "using busy and using eastern illinois," might give us another window to babers himself. Plus he's going to have an easier time getting buy in than briles did originally since previous success existsin games and in the national media.
 
I hope it doesn't take too long, some of us are getting old !
 
I think it's useful to look at Baylor, but there's another thing to remember - Babers now has a blueprint to work with.

This means the learning curve for this type of reclamation project should be shorter, and it also means that he can sell this type of vision and more specifically the offense to recruits.

I am not expecting 10 win seasons right off the bat, but I also would be very disappointed for it to take Syracuse 3 years to make a bowl game.
Yes, and that's kind of a big deal.
 
Now lets take a look at Baylor's scoring before and after Briles arrival.

Baylor Before Briles
2005: 23 PPG
2006: 23 PPG
2007: 18 PPG

With Briles
2008: 27 PPG
2009: 21 PPG
2010: 31 PPG

For comparison's sake, lets look at SU's point output over the past three years:

Orange
2013: 23 PPG
2014: 17 PPG
2015: 27 PPG

If Babers could add nine points per game to SU's output, like Briles did in his first year, well... wow. That would be a 19 point increase in a two year period for SU. That would be nearly unprecedented. I think adding 4 to 5 points a game could be doable though. If he did add 9 points per game that would have put us at 26th in the country in 2015. Out of the top 26 teams in the country in scoring in 2015, only two had losing records. And those losing records were 6-7. All 26 made bowl games.

A 4 or 5 point increase would put us at right around 50th in the country. We were 77th in reality in 2015. How did that Briles guy do at Baylor after we stop tracking him in 2010? His team lead the nation in scoring this year at 48.1 PPG.
I hate bumping old threads -- but looking at these numbers is amazing. Last year the offense averaged 32.2 PPG. This year it's averaging 44.4 PPG (yes you read that right, good mojo there!). Right on schedule in year 4!
 

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