GoSU96
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Tough to really get a handle on just how improved things really are.
By the eye test the offense is "better". They already have three more passing TD's than all of last year. 7th in TD% per attempt. That is really good. One thing apparent is that Lester is better organized and has a much better sense of what he wants to do. Through 4 games compared to last year the offensive stats are better in everything except for passing yds per game and completion percentage, which could be explained by the low number of attempts per game and the fact that the passing scheme is more vertical. In the redzone they have been much better
The run defense and overall play of the front seven has been impressive. In terms of big plays the defense has been better in sacks, TFL's, turnovers, and scoring plays. Hopefully the pass defense numbers are skewed a little by the fact that Wake and CMU are by far the two pass heaviest teams on the schedule. At the same time they are also 108th and 126th in rushing out of 127 teams, so that might cut the other way.
But in looking at the above you have to look at the context of who has been played so far. Swapping LSU at home vs ND at Met Life in comparing performance of the four games at home this year vs Nova at home, CMU and Wake on the road and ND neutral what has been accomplished is the same result against what should be an easier set up.
Last year the average score in those four games was SU 28 opponents 17. This year 33 to 20.
However when you take out the FCS game last year the average score was 28-14, this year 28-26 with all three games being at home vs all away from the dome last year. That is concerning.
The indications from looking at comparative scores is mixed as well. Against LSU SU did a little better than Auburn and a little worse than MSU. Against CMU it would be fair to assume that SU's performance would have been comparable to Mich St and Okie St. if Dungey doesn't get knocked out of the game. However against Wake it was a game into the 4th quarter against a team that only beat Army by three and lost to Indiana.
So far this team has shown that it can make big plays and winning plays on both sides of the ball, which is great, that's much better than not being able to do so. I'm just not sure you can get through a full season with this formula. I don't think they run enough plays and aren't good enough sustaining drives. They have been lit up for big yards by pass heavy teams and steamrolled by a run oriented team.
I think the ingredients are there but a great deal of improvement is still needed. The total offense ranking is 106th and total defense is 51st. That kind of combined ranking, and against the portion of the schedule that a 3-9 team went 3-1 against last year, translates more often than not int0 4 to 6 win season.
By the eye test the offense is "better". They already have three more passing TD's than all of last year. 7th in TD% per attempt. That is really good. One thing apparent is that Lester is better organized and has a much better sense of what he wants to do. Through 4 games compared to last year the offensive stats are better in everything except for passing yds per game and completion percentage, which could be explained by the low number of attempts per game and the fact that the passing scheme is more vertical. In the redzone they have been much better
The run defense and overall play of the front seven has been impressive. In terms of big plays the defense has been better in sacks, TFL's, turnovers, and scoring plays. Hopefully the pass defense numbers are skewed a little by the fact that Wake and CMU are by far the two pass heaviest teams on the schedule. At the same time they are also 108th and 126th in rushing out of 127 teams, so that might cut the other way.
But in looking at the above you have to look at the context of who has been played so far. Swapping LSU at home vs ND at Met Life in comparing performance of the four games at home this year vs Nova at home, CMU and Wake on the road and ND neutral what has been accomplished is the same result against what should be an easier set up.
Last year the average score in those four games was SU 28 opponents 17. This year 33 to 20.
However when you take out the FCS game last year the average score was 28-14, this year 28-26 with all three games being at home vs all away from the dome last year. That is concerning.
The indications from looking at comparative scores is mixed as well. Against LSU SU did a little better than Auburn and a little worse than MSU. Against CMU it would be fair to assume that SU's performance would have been comparable to Mich St and Okie St. if Dungey doesn't get knocked out of the game. However against Wake it was a game into the 4th quarter against a team that only beat Army by three and lost to Indiana.
So far this team has shown that it can make big plays and winning plays on both sides of the ball, which is great, that's much better than not being able to do so. I'm just not sure you can get through a full season with this formula. I don't think they run enough plays and aren't good enough sustaining drives. They have been lit up for big yards by pass heavy teams and steamrolled by a run oriented team.
I think the ingredients are there but a great deal of improvement is still needed. The total offense ranking is 106th and total defense is 51st. That kind of combined ranking, and against the portion of the schedule that a 3-9 team went 3-1 against last year, translates more often than not int0 4 to 6 win season.
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