SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 34,519
- Like
- 67,281
We are about to play UNC-Ashville in a first round NCAA game. We are one of four #1 seeds: they are a #16 seed. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 108 #1 vs. #16 games and the #1 seeds are 108-0. But someday…. We were the first #2 seed to lose to a #15 seed when we lost to Richmond, something the pundits have never allowed us to forget. I sure hope we aren’t the first #1 to lose to a #16.
I decided to look at these 1-16 to get an idea of how often #16 teams have thrown a scare into #1 seeds.
1985 Georgetown 68 Lehigh 43, St. John’s 83 Southern Baton Rouge 59, Michigan 59 Fairleigh Dickenson Teaneck 55, Oklahoma 96 North Carolina A&T 83. That’s one game won by less than 5 points, one by 10-19 points and two by 20-29 points.
1986 Duke 85 Mississippi Valley State 78, Kansas 71 North Carolina A&T 46, Kentucky 75 Davidson 55, St. John’s 83 Montana State 74. Two games by 5-9 points, two by 20-29 points.
1987 North Carolina 113 Pennsylvania 82, Georgetown 75 Bucknell 53, Indiana 92 Fairfield 58, UNLV 95 Idaho State 70. Two by 20-29 and two by 30-39.
1988 Temple 87 Lehigh 73, Purdue 94 Fairleigh Dickenson- Teaneck 79, Oklahoma 94 Tennessee-Chattanooga 66, Arizona 90 Cornell 50. Two by 10-19, one by 20-29 and one by 40-49.
1989 Georgetown 50 Princeton 49, Arizona 94 Robert Morris 60, Oklahoma 72 East Tennessee State 71. Illinois 77 McNeese State 71. Two by less than 5 points, one by 5-9 points, one by 30-39 points.
1990 Connecticut 76 Boston U 52, Oklahoma 77 Towson 68, Michigan 75 Murray State 71 (OT), UNLV 102 Arkansas Little Rock 72. One by less than 5 points, one by 5-9, one by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1991 North Carolina 101 Northeastern 66, Arkansas 117 Georgia State 76, Ohio State 97 Towson 86, UNLV 99 Montana 65. One by 10-19 points, three by 30-39 points.
1992 Duke 82 Campbell 56, UCLA 73, Robert Morris 53, Ohio State 83 Mississippi Valley State 56, Kansas 100 Howard 67. Three by 20-29, one by 30-39.
1993 North Carolina 85 East Carolina 65, Indiana 97 Wright State 54, Kentucky 96 Rider 52, Michigan 84 Coastal Carolina 53. One by 20-29 points, One by 30-39. Two by 40-49.
1994 North Carolina 71 Liberty 51, Purdue 98 Central Florida 67, Arkansas 94 North Carolina A&T 79, Missouri 76 Navy 53. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1995 Wake Forest 79 North Carolina A&T 47, UCLA 92 Florida International 56,
Kentucky 113 Mount St. Mary’s 67, Kansas 82 Colgate 68. One by 10-19, two by 30-39, one by 40-49.
1996 Massachusetts 92 Central Florida 70, Kentucky 110 San Jose State 72, Connecticut 68 Colgate 59, Purdue 73 Western Carolina 71. One by less than 5 points, one by 5-9 points, one by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1997 North Carolina 82 Fairfield 74, Kansas 78 Jackson State 64, Minnesota 78 Southwest Texas State 46, Kentucky 92 Montana 54. One by 5-9 points, one by 10-19 and two by 30-39.
1998 North Carolina 88 Navy 52, Arizona 99 Nichols State 60, Duke 99 Radford 63, Kansas 110 Prairie View 52. Three by 30-39, one by 50-59.
1999 Duke 99 Florida A&M 58, Michigan State 76 Mount St. Mary’s 53, Auburn 80 Winthrop 41, Connecticut 91 Texas San Antonio 66. Two by 20-29, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2000 Duke 82 Lamar 55, Stanford 84 South Carolina State 65, Michigan State 65 Valparaiso 38, Arizona 71 Jackson State 47. One by 10-19, three by 20-29.
2001 Duke 95 Monmouth 52, Stanford 89 UNC-Greensboro 60, Michigan State 69 Alabama State 35, Illinois 96 Northwestern 54. One by 20-29, one by 30-39 and two by 40-49.
2002 Maryland 85 Siena 70, Kansas 70 Holy Cross 59, Duke 84 Winthrop 37, Cincinnati 90 Boston U 52. Two by 10-19, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2003 Oklahoma 71 South Carolina State 54, Texas 82 UNC-Ashville 61, Kentucky 95 IUPUI 64, Arizona 80 Vermont 51. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
2004 St. Joseph’s 82 Liberty 63, Kentucky 96 Florida A&M 76, Duke 96 Alabama State 61, Stanford 71 Texas-San Antonio 45. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
2005 North Carolina 96 Oakland 68, Duke 57 Delaware State 46, Illinois 67 Fairleigh-Dickinson 55, Washington 88 Montana 77. Three by 10-19, one by 20-29.
2006 Connecticut 72 Albany 59, Villanova 58 Monmouth 45, Duke 70 Southern 54, Memphis 94 Oral Roberts 78. Four by 10-19.
2007 North Carolina 86 Eastern Kentucky 65, Ohio State 78 Central Connecticut 57, Florida 112 Jackson State 69, Kansas 107 Niagara 67. Two by 20-29, two by 40-49.
2008 North Carolina 113 Mount St. Mary’s 74, Kansas 85 Portland State 61, Memphis 87 Texas-Arlington 63, UCLA 70 Mississippi Valley State 29. Two by 20-29, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2009 Pittsburgh 72 East Tennessee State 62, North Carolina 101 Radford 58, Louisville 74 Morehead State 54, Connecticut 103 Tennessee-Chattanooga 47. One by 10-19, one by 20-29, one by 40-49, one by 50-59.
2010 Kentucky 100 East Tennessee State 71, Duke 73 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 44, Kansas 90 Lehigh 74, Syracuse 79 Vermont 56. One by 10-19, three by 20-29.
2011 Ohio State 75 Texas San-Antonio 46, Duke 87 Hampton 45, Kansas 72 Boston U 53, Pittsburgh 74 UNC-Ashville 51. One by 10-19, two by 20-29, one by 40-49.
Total of each point differential:
Under 5 five times
(1985: Michigan 59 Fairleigh Dickenson Teaneck 55, 1989: Georgetown 50 Princeton 49, Oklahoma 72 East Tennessee State 71, 1990: Michigan 75 Murray State 71 (OT), 1996: Purdue 73 Western Carolina 71)
5-9 six times
(1986: Duke 85 Mississippi Valley State 78, St. John’s 83 Montana State 74, 1989: Illinois 77 McNeese State 71, 1990: Oklahoma 77 Towson 68, 1996: Connecticut 68 Colgate 59, 1997: North Carolina 82 Fairfield 74)
10-19 twenty-two times
20-29 thirty-six times
30-39 twenty-four times
40-49 thirteen times
50-59 two times
Off the historical record, there is a 4.6% chance that a 1 vs. 16 game will be decided by less than 5 points or in overtime, a 5.6% chance that it will be decided by 5-9 points, a 20.4% chance that it will be decided by 10-19 points, a 33.3% chance that it will be decided by 20-29 points, a 22.2% chance that it will be decided by 30-39 points, a 12.0% chance that it will be decided by 40-49 points and a 1.9% chance that it will be decided by 50-59 points.
There’s a perception that the day when a 16th seed will win is near because the 16 seeds have been getting better and better but in fact that last 1-16 game to be decided by single digits was 15 years ago.
All of this proves nothing and we are certainly more vulnerable without our key defensive player. Also, we were the first 2 seed to lose to a 15 seed, so what not become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. But the historical record suggests that we will advance by a comfortable margin and that may offer a needed dose of optimism.
I decided to look at these 1-16 to get an idea of how often #16 teams have thrown a scare into #1 seeds.
1985 Georgetown 68 Lehigh 43, St. John’s 83 Southern Baton Rouge 59, Michigan 59 Fairleigh Dickenson Teaneck 55, Oklahoma 96 North Carolina A&T 83. That’s one game won by less than 5 points, one by 10-19 points and two by 20-29 points.
1986 Duke 85 Mississippi Valley State 78, Kansas 71 North Carolina A&T 46, Kentucky 75 Davidson 55, St. John’s 83 Montana State 74. Two games by 5-9 points, two by 20-29 points.
1987 North Carolina 113 Pennsylvania 82, Georgetown 75 Bucknell 53, Indiana 92 Fairfield 58, UNLV 95 Idaho State 70. Two by 20-29 and two by 30-39.
1988 Temple 87 Lehigh 73, Purdue 94 Fairleigh Dickenson- Teaneck 79, Oklahoma 94 Tennessee-Chattanooga 66, Arizona 90 Cornell 50. Two by 10-19, one by 20-29 and one by 40-49.
1989 Georgetown 50 Princeton 49, Arizona 94 Robert Morris 60, Oklahoma 72 East Tennessee State 71. Illinois 77 McNeese State 71. Two by less than 5 points, one by 5-9 points, one by 30-39 points.
1990 Connecticut 76 Boston U 52, Oklahoma 77 Towson 68, Michigan 75 Murray State 71 (OT), UNLV 102 Arkansas Little Rock 72. One by less than 5 points, one by 5-9, one by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1991 North Carolina 101 Northeastern 66, Arkansas 117 Georgia State 76, Ohio State 97 Towson 86, UNLV 99 Montana 65. One by 10-19 points, three by 30-39 points.
1992 Duke 82 Campbell 56, UCLA 73, Robert Morris 53, Ohio State 83 Mississippi Valley State 56, Kansas 100 Howard 67. Three by 20-29, one by 30-39.
1993 North Carolina 85 East Carolina 65, Indiana 97 Wright State 54, Kentucky 96 Rider 52, Michigan 84 Coastal Carolina 53. One by 20-29 points, One by 30-39. Two by 40-49.
1994 North Carolina 71 Liberty 51, Purdue 98 Central Florida 67, Arkansas 94 North Carolina A&T 79, Missouri 76 Navy 53. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1995 Wake Forest 79 North Carolina A&T 47, UCLA 92 Florida International 56,
Kentucky 113 Mount St. Mary’s 67, Kansas 82 Colgate 68. One by 10-19, two by 30-39, one by 40-49.
1996 Massachusetts 92 Central Florida 70, Kentucky 110 San Jose State 72, Connecticut 68 Colgate 59, Purdue 73 Western Carolina 71. One by less than 5 points, one by 5-9 points, one by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
1997 North Carolina 82 Fairfield 74, Kansas 78 Jackson State 64, Minnesota 78 Southwest Texas State 46, Kentucky 92 Montana 54. One by 5-9 points, one by 10-19 and two by 30-39.
1998 North Carolina 88 Navy 52, Arizona 99 Nichols State 60, Duke 99 Radford 63, Kansas 110 Prairie View 52. Three by 30-39, one by 50-59.
1999 Duke 99 Florida A&M 58, Michigan State 76 Mount St. Mary’s 53, Auburn 80 Winthrop 41, Connecticut 91 Texas San Antonio 66. Two by 20-29, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2000 Duke 82 Lamar 55, Stanford 84 South Carolina State 65, Michigan State 65 Valparaiso 38, Arizona 71 Jackson State 47. One by 10-19, three by 20-29.
2001 Duke 95 Monmouth 52, Stanford 89 UNC-Greensboro 60, Michigan State 69 Alabama State 35, Illinois 96 Northwestern 54. One by 20-29, one by 30-39 and two by 40-49.
2002 Maryland 85 Siena 70, Kansas 70 Holy Cross 59, Duke 84 Winthrop 37, Cincinnati 90 Boston U 52. Two by 10-19, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2003 Oklahoma 71 South Carolina State 54, Texas 82 UNC-Ashville 61, Kentucky 95 IUPUI 64, Arizona 80 Vermont 51. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
2004 St. Joseph’s 82 Liberty 63, Kentucky 96 Florida A&M 76, Duke 96 Alabama State 61, Stanford 71 Texas-San Antonio 45. One by 10-19, two by 20-29 and one by 30-39.
2005 North Carolina 96 Oakland 68, Duke 57 Delaware State 46, Illinois 67 Fairleigh-Dickinson 55, Washington 88 Montana 77. Three by 10-19, one by 20-29.
2006 Connecticut 72 Albany 59, Villanova 58 Monmouth 45, Duke 70 Southern 54, Memphis 94 Oral Roberts 78. Four by 10-19.
2007 North Carolina 86 Eastern Kentucky 65, Ohio State 78 Central Connecticut 57, Florida 112 Jackson State 69, Kansas 107 Niagara 67. Two by 20-29, two by 40-49.
2008 North Carolina 113 Mount St. Mary’s 74, Kansas 85 Portland State 61, Memphis 87 Texas-Arlington 63, UCLA 70 Mississippi Valley State 29. Two by 20-29, one by 30-39 and one by 40-49.
2009 Pittsburgh 72 East Tennessee State 62, North Carolina 101 Radford 58, Louisville 74 Morehead State 54, Connecticut 103 Tennessee-Chattanooga 47. One by 10-19, one by 20-29, one by 40-49, one by 50-59.
2010 Kentucky 100 East Tennessee State 71, Duke 73 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 44, Kansas 90 Lehigh 74, Syracuse 79 Vermont 56. One by 10-19, three by 20-29.
2011 Ohio State 75 Texas San-Antonio 46, Duke 87 Hampton 45, Kansas 72 Boston U 53, Pittsburgh 74 UNC-Ashville 51. One by 10-19, two by 20-29, one by 40-49.
Total of each point differential:
Under 5 five times
(1985: Michigan 59 Fairleigh Dickenson Teaneck 55, 1989: Georgetown 50 Princeton 49, Oklahoma 72 East Tennessee State 71, 1990: Michigan 75 Murray State 71 (OT), 1996: Purdue 73 Western Carolina 71)
5-9 six times
(1986: Duke 85 Mississippi Valley State 78, St. John’s 83 Montana State 74, 1989: Illinois 77 McNeese State 71, 1990: Oklahoma 77 Towson 68, 1996: Connecticut 68 Colgate 59, 1997: North Carolina 82 Fairfield 74)
10-19 twenty-two times
20-29 thirty-six times
30-39 twenty-four times
40-49 thirteen times
50-59 two times
Off the historical record, there is a 4.6% chance that a 1 vs. 16 game will be decided by less than 5 points or in overtime, a 5.6% chance that it will be decided by 5-9 points, a 20.4% chance that it will be decided by 10-19 points, a 33.3% chance that it will be decided by 20-29 points, a 22.2% chance that it will be decided by 30-39 points, a 12.0% chance that it will be decided by 40-49 points and a 1.9% chance that it will be decided by 50-59 points.
There’s a perception that the day when a 16th seed will win is near because the 16 seeds have been getting better and better but in fact that last 1-16 game to be decided by single digits was 15 years ago.
All of this proves nothing and we are certainly more vulnerable without our key defensive player. Also, we were the first 2 seed to lose to a 15 seed, so what not become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. But the historical record suggests that we will advance by a comfortable margin and that may offer a needed dose of optimism.
