So...back to the product on the field. Who gives a rat's a$$ about Tebow?
If we can avoid getting swept by Washington, we have a very, very good chance to pull this thing off.
The Cardinals have a brutal thirteen game stretch coming up where they get the Giants for four and the Cubs for six over the next two weeks. Meanwhile our schedule after the Nats series suddenly turns softer than Charmin. You can't look past your opponents, but I would hope that we can go 8-5 at the very worst over these next 13 games heading into the final week. If you can't go 7-3, or better against the Phillies, Braves, and Twins, three teams that have a combined 256 losses on the season, in your last homestand of the year, then you don't deserve to go to the playoffs. Let's avoid the sweep from Washington, and then either sweep the Twins or Braves while going no worse than 4-4 against Philly.
Mets anticipated next two weeks (13 game stretch.)
@ Wash - 3 (1-2)
vs. Min - (3-0)
vs. Atl - (2-1)
vs. Phi - (2-2)
= 8-5
= 84-72 with six to play
= .5 GB from SF for WC#1, 2.5 games up on STL for WC#2
If we can do that, we should be in excellent shape. I can't see the Cardinals going 9-4 with 10 out of 13 games against the Cubs and Giants. I'm anticipating them to go 3-3 against the Cubs, and 1-3 against the Giants. Even with a sweep in Colorado between the Cubs series, (which is never a safe bet at Coors), they only go 7-6 over the next two weeks. We really need either the Giants or Cardinals to go 1-3 or get swept in that four game series. A split doesn't really help us.
Cards anticipated next two weeks (13 game stretch.)
vs. Cubs - 3 (2-1)
@ SF - 4 (1-3)
@ COL - 3 (2-1)
@ Cubs - 3 (1-2)
= 6-7
= 81-74 with seven to play.
= 2.5 back of Mets/3.5 GB of Giants for WC #1/2
You figure the Giants are playing with a sense of urgency, having blown the division, if they don't keep it up, they may find themselves out of the playoff picture altogether, although they seem to have righted the ship in recent days. However, the Giants schedule isn't much easier than the Cards. They have seven games with the Cards and Dodgers in the next two weeks. We'd like them to go 3-4 at best in those six games, and no better than 4-3 against the other seven they have with the Padres during that stretch. However, if we had to choose which series we'd rather have the Giants lose, it would be the Dodger series so the division can be all but wrapped up during the final weekend when they play the Dodgers again.
Giants next two weeks (14 game stretch.)
vs. SD - (2-1)
vs. Stl - (3-1)
@ LA - (1-2)
@ SD - (2-2)
= 8-6
= 85-71 with six games to play
= 1 game up on Mets for WC #1
It's worth noting that the last week of the season we have six games to play while the Cardinals have seven. The Giants have six games the last week of the season but don't have an off day from now until 9/26, which is their last of the season. Also, if we finish the season with the same record as the Giants, and the Cardinals are eliminated we win the WC #1 due to winning the season series against the Giants. If we finish the season tied with the Cardinals for the WC #2, we would play a one game playoff against them for the right to play the Giants on the road in the Wild Card game. Tying the Giants is good. Tying the Cardinals is bad.
Personally, I would really really like our chances to go deep into the playoffs if we can host the wildcard game. I don't enjoy the prospect of having to fly six hours to play the Giants with Mad Bum on the mound. We can take St. Louis in St. Louis, but I would be pretty concerned about playing the Giants in the wildcard game on the road.
Either way, compared to how things looked on September 1st, I'll take it. This is exciting stuff, and I think we're poised for a good final stretch.