Just a few thoughts that I felt like getting out here.
The depth of talent on the tour is impressive.
The big four: Dustin-Justin-Rahm-Rory
The next Tier: X, Reed, Cantlay, Hatton.
Bryson is in this group. Although he says some things that are a bit off, I like that Bryson is an iconoclast and he is a top ten golfer who is likely to win another major or more, but I don’t think he is going to drastically change how golf is played. An article in one of the golf magazines stated that Wolfe out drove Bryson in the 4th round at the Masters but can’t find confirmation of that.
The new guys who have won already: Viktor, Morikawa, Wolfe
A couple of top Koreans in Im and Kim who have won, and a top Japanese player in Hideki who has won
Then a ton of guys from Simpson to the likes of: Ancer, Scheffler, Kuchar, Kisner, Brendon Todd, Hughes, Fowler, Finau, Na, Champ, Harris, Reavie, Woodland
A handful of top Euros and ROW: Rose, Lowry, Scott, Fleetwood, Casey, Niemann, Leishman, Laird, Oosthuizen
And a bunch of dark horses that would not surprise if they won: Bezuidenhout, Fitzpatrick, Berger. And Redman, Kang, Pieters, Frittelli, Munoz, Wallace, Li.
I’m sure you guys could add quite a few more names.
On the flip side:
Tiger – probably washed up as a top player but you never know with ho boy. And ESPN, please take down the father/son/tiger stuff from your website – that was 7 week ago and 5 tournaments ago! Do people really care that much about Tiger?
Phil – he’s already been gone, it would be a Johnny Miller like miracle if that wet ATT 2 years ago was not his last hurrah
Koepka – I expected his major magic to end after 4, which it certainly did, the question is how good he will be when he is fully healthy again. Probable that he gets multiple more wins, but 50/50 that he gets another major
Jason Day – he had some good moments in 2020, but seems damaged, don’t see him in the top ten again
Spieth – possible of course, but I give him only a 50% chance of winning again and a 2% chance of winning a slam. Tough to stay on top when you rely on being the best at 25 foot putts.
Predictions for the season:
POY – Rahm
Vardon Trophy - Justin
Winners of the Players, the majors and the Fedex
One of the points of the above, is that it is very hard to win a major because there are a handful of great players and many very good players who can win if they get in the zone.
Given that, I’ll say that 3 of the 6 biggies are won by the big four. Dustin is due to cool down a little - could easily be a multiple winner but maybe not in the majors. I’d be surprised if Rahm doesn’t win one and Justin seems overdue. Would love to see Rory win the Masters or any of the others. He is still playing well but he seems the least likely at the moment.
It is useless to predict specific tournaments at this point, but I’ll do it anyways.
Players – Dustin
Masters – Rahm
PGA – Xander
US Open – Justin, what a great short game
Open – Fleetwood, can go low
Fedex - Hatton
One more thing. The 7-1 odds of Bryson winning the 2020 Masters was such a bad bet (not for the bookies or course but for the bettors). 15-1 would be a decent rule of thumb for the lowest odds in most cases. Just for reference, Tiger won approximately once every 4.5 majors during his heyday in 1996-2009, so 3-1 odds might have been good on him. Bryson winning his first major at age 27 is not in the same solar system as Tiger’s heyday. However, Dustin, who was playing at such a consistently high, tiger like, level at the time, is the one who should have gotten 7-1.
One other thing - I didn't see the event or look at the rules but am sure that Reed cheated.
