If that's your concern, it would seem to me that you would have better odds of taking the ball second and going for two if you score a touchdown (like Chiefs players said would have been their plan if they won the toss) rather than hoping you are able to get into field goal range on another possession. Additionally, if you defer and get a turnover/stop, all you have to do is kick a field goal to win. He overthought it, in my opinion. If I'm guaranteed an overtime possession, I'm deferring every single time.