2023 Pre-NCAA Tourney Discussion and Bubble Watch

[jncuse]

As we get close to conference tournaments, I think it makes sense to start a thread for all to discuss all things tournament - be it conference tournament action, #1 seeds, top conferences, bubble teams (focus)

Let's get the obvious out of the way. In case it was not 100% clear, we are not getting an at-large at this point,

Before Clemson, I believed there was limited permutations of wins and loss that would allow us to get an at large -- with an even more limited probability of us winning those required games. But don't have to worry about the highly improbable anymore.

 

[obliterata]

Yeah. Before Clemson, win out and lose in the ACC championship game and I think we're dancing in March.

Now, obviously, it's win the ACC tournament or else.

 

[dwilmont44]

What's it looking like for the ACC? What's the lowest number of bids they could get?

 

[orange79]

What's it looking like for the ACC? What's the lowest number of bids they could get?

Well, technically, the lowest number of bids they could get is 1.

 

[UpstateSM]

What's it looking like for the ACC? What's the lowest number of bids they could get?

Virginia, Miami, and Dook are in. NC State is probably good to go but could get sweaty if they don’t win another game between now and selection Sunday. Pitt is closer to the bubble but in good shape.

So, three is the absolute lowest NCSt and Pitt both fall apart but four bids is probably the actual lowest number.

 

[jncuse]

What's it looking like for the ACC? What's the lowest number of bids they could get?

Looking at the bracket matrix as well for some help which currently has 5 - I think that is the probable end number. But there is downside risk, moreso for Pitt.

At high level 3 locks - Duke, Miami, Virginia are locks

NC St is in very good shape - I think one win against Clemson, Duke or ACC locks it for them. They have 3 Q1 wins, 7-7 Q1+Q2, and no bad losses. Good NET. It;'s clean.

Pitt is in as of now, but needs to be more careful than NC St. They have 5 Q1 wins which is good, but already have 2 bad losses, and with Syracuse and at Notre Dame coming up another one may be coming. If they do "simple" stuff like beating Syracuse, winning at Notre Dame, beating what is likely a poor team in their first ACC game they should be fine.

UNC is currently out. It has no Q1 wins, and no bad losses. They have a great opportunity in front of them with home games against Virginia and Duke. Take those two games and they are cleanly back in the tournmaent.

Clemson is in trouble (probably first 8 out right bnow) What's really hurting them is 4 bad losses including 2 Q4 losses. I don't know if a team has overcome that 4 (2Q4) bad loss combo to get in. They have an opportunity to really jump up with 2 road wins at NC St and Virginia -- but that is going to be really hard.

5 is probably going to be the number - I think either Pitt will hang on, or one of UNC or Clemson gets on a run perhaps to get back in.

The downside is probably 4 if either NC St or Pitt falters.
There is an upside of 6 if things go right down the stretch in particular for UNC.

The one thing that works against ACC teams generally is teams in the other power conferences have the ability to do bigger things over the next 10 days of the regular season and even in conference tourney - more Q1 opportunities. ACC teams also have more opportunities to get bad losses. A team in the B12 can't have a bad loss because all the NETS are so good.

 

[jncuse]

I have never seen such a "clean" split in the matrix at this point of the season between 1, 2 and 3 seeds. Not to say they will not change but there is a clear gap between the lines right now.

1.00 means that out of 107 all 107 think those teams are #1 seeds right now
1.01 means that 106 of 107 think Purdue will be a #1 seed.

The 2 line is very similar in it being a "clean" split.

In terms of dominating the top 4 seed lines, Big 12 has 5 of the top 16 seeds. No other conference has 2. Not surprising because of their outstanding OOC, B12 have boosted their NET so that about 75% of the game in conference are q1 and the rest are q2.

 

[jncuse]

The split between "in" and "out" per the matrix is also as clean as I ever remember it any time during the regular season.

Plenty of time for things to change if some teams slip and teams below the line get on a RUN -- or bracket busters, but as of now its as much consensus as I have ever seen at this point of the season.

Texas Tech has a Q1 win opportunity at home against TCU tomorrow for example.

 

[jncuse]

As I expected before the conference season,. the fact that the B12, BIG, SEC dominated the OOC they would dominate the # of bids. And there is a clear divide in bids right now.

Teams per conference per the current matrix

BIG 9
B12 8
SEC 8
Big East 5
ACC 5
Pac 12 3
Mountain West 3
West Coast 2
American 2

 

[blust2i3d4]

Yeah. Before Clemson, win out and lose in the ACC championship game and I think we're dancing in March.

Now, obviously, it's win the ACC tournament or else.

There is still a path. We need to win out so we have 8 conference losses. Same applies to NC State to have eight conference losses. Then we are No. 6 seed and NC State No. 7 seed. We also need UNC and Wake to have more than 8 losses.
No.1/2 are Miami and Virginia. No. 3 Clemson. No. 4. Pitt. No. 5 Duke. No. 11 VA Tech.
We need to beat No. 11 VA Tech, No. 3 Clemson. No. 2 either Miami or Virginia. Adding three good wins to wins over Pitt and Wake. That should be enough. And I think we can beat Miami, Virginia, Clemson and VA Tech on the 2nd or 3rd meeting. For some reason, I think Duke has our numbers so I present a path that avoids Duke.

 

[jncuse]

Maybe there is a path. maybe there is not.

But not going to waste any thought on it because our chance of winning the next 6 games in a row is as great as Tarleton St winning the National Championship.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Well, technically, the lowest number of bids they could get is 1.

 

[MSOrange]

 

[jncuse]

They could be one of the most heated debates on Selection Sunday since they could be getting discussed with a 5-13 conference record. Currently 5th last team in on the matrix before today, and a 2 point loss at Kansas certainly did not hurt them - but it was a major missed opportunity.

If they conceivably lose the next 2 games, at #23 ISU & vs #14 Kansas St. they would be 5-13 in the B12.

Their resume entering the B12 tournament at 16-15 would still be pretty solid. Its the benefit of playing in the B12 - everything is a quality win and you can't get a bad loss.
16-15, 5-13
NET around 30-35
4-13 Q1
4-2 Q2
8-15 Q1+Q2.
3 decent wins OOC.
No bad losses.

I think they need to win at least one more game to at least be strongly considered 17-15 or 17-16 (if its in the B12). I don't think the committee would be OK with them at 16-16.

 

[jncuse]

Some bubble highlights today. As per my prior post the line between the in and out has never been so clear cut at this point. But with bad losses and quality wins things could close. yAnd of course there will be bubble busters.

1. Good day for the ACC - maybe
Couldn't ask for a better scenario for ACC in terms of bids
- UNC gets a much needed marquee Q1 win against Virginia. They now go to 1-9 in Q1 games! Per the matrix they were only in on 2 of 94 brackets... take cure of FSU and Duke, and they will be on the line entering the NCAA tournament.
- Pitt takes care of business against SU(win doesn't help them, as much as a loss would have hurt them)
- Clemson gets a Q1 win at NC St. Clemson is now 4-3 in Q1, and 7-4 in Q1 and Q2. Both very good. But they also have 4 bad losses, including 2 Q4 ones -- really bad. Currently out of the NCAA (in on 1 of 94 brackets per the matrix)- presuming they win against Notre Dame, lose at Virginia, they will still need to make a move in the ACC tournament. But today was a start.

NC St though (at average seed of 8.8 entering today) is still in good shape with a loss. But if they lose at Duke, and then suffer a bad loss to start the ACC tourney they might find a similar fate to Wake Forest last year. Really all they need to do to be safe is not have a bad loss in the ACC.

2. Boise St - Like last year the MWC will be a wildcard around the bubble line. Boise St was well in the tournament before today (avg seed of 9.9), but they suffered a Q3 loss today at San Jose St.
Given the uncertainty of how the MWC could be treated this is a big loss for them,

3. Mississippi St - 3rd last team in entering today per matrix, they got a big Q1 win vs Texas A&M today.

3. Blown opportunities for B12 teams
All of West Virginia, OK St and Texas Tech are around the line.
OK St and Texas Tech blew Q1 win home opportuniites today that were basically pick em games - have to take advantage of those.
West Virginia only lost by 2 at Kansas. They are currently 5th last in, so that would have been a huge win. Could they get in at 5-13 in the B12.

 

[jncuse]

Tonight's Big Winners

West Virginia got the big win they needed with a Q1 road win -- I think it might be enough to get them in, even with a 6-12 record in the B12. Certainly not a lock, but it might be enough depending on how things break.

Tonight's Losers

Oklahoma St in the B12 on the other hand is blowing opportunities -- two straight Q1 losses at home, when they needed a big win to solidify things. They might be in by consensus, but are going to be closer to 60% in by tomorrow.

Nevada is a consensus 9 seed per the matrix, but suffered a Q3 loss tonight at Wyoming. Not certain the committee will be kind to MWC this year.

 

[jncuse]

As some conference tourneys start this week figured I would look at potential bubble busters. I don't think there is going to be many this year. 1 or 2 seems the most likely, would be very surprised if there are more than that from the scenarios listed below.


One bid conference bubble busters?
Not very many this year. I only see 2 possibilities, and #2 is remote.
1) Florida Atlantic (CUSA - March 8 to March 11) - They are a lock for the tourney regardless of how they do in the CUSA tounrey. FAU has a KP Rating of #30. UAB is #54 and North Texas is #57. Think there is about a 50% chance this ends up a bubble buster conference.

2) College of Charleston (Colonial - March 3 to March 7) - They are 27-3 with NET of 54. But not much quality I would say there chance of an at-large is less than 20% if they lose this.

Multi-bid conferences (non P6)

American (Houston&Memphis ) - These are the two clear cut best teams in the conference - I would say 80%+ chance one of them wins, so not much chance of a bubble buster.

West Coast (Gonzaga&St Mary's) - Both teams have a bye to the Semi-Finals. I would say there is less than a 10% chance for a bubble buster in this conference.

Mountain West (San Diego St, Nevada, Boise St) - This one will be interesting. A few decent teams like Utah St and New Mexico can steal a bid. Also Nevada and Boise St are not far from the bubble,

P6 Conferences

There has been a recent trend teams winning their conference tourneys that had no chance at an at large. Virginia Tech in 2022, Georgetown in 2021, Oregon St in 2021. But in the 20 years before that there might have only been one team that won a P6 tourney that was not on the bubble otherwise - Georgia from the SEC some years back.

Starting with those with highest possibility of a bubble buster.


ACC - (maybe a 20% chance) With teams like UNC, Clemson, Wake, Virginia Tech on the outside and a lack of powerhouses, there is probably a 25%+ chance of a bubble buster here.

Big East - (less than 10% chance) - There is a pretty big divide between the top 5 in the conference that are in, and the rest. Villanova has been playing better,

Pac 12 (less than 10% chance) - UCLA, Arizona, and USC are pretty dominant at the top. I would be surprised if one of them does not win, especially as UCLA is fighting for a #1 seed.

SEC, B10, B12 - Close to a 0% chance of a bubble buster in these conferences. Just too many teams (7-9) are tournament teams already. Hard to expect someone in the "field" to win.

 

[PoppyHart]

If I had to place a long shot bet (no at large hopes) it would be on Nova.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[UpstateSM]

I can’t believe SeMo just blew my 12-1 OVC title ticket like that. I’m not sleeping tonight.

 

[rrlbees]

I can’t believe SeMo just blew my 12-1 OVC title ticket like that. I’m not sleeping tonight.

Not over yet

 

[CardiacCuse]

6-12 conference record for WVU? yikes

should be auto disqualifying imo

OOC is weighted way too heavily in the current model, imo

 

[UpstateSM]

6-12 conference record for WVU? yikes

should be auto disqualifying imo

OOC is weighted way too heavily in the current model, imo

They’d be the best team in the ACC

 

[CardiacCuse]

They’d be the best team in the ACC

if you say so

 

[UpstateSM]

Not over yet

Buying a SeMo t-shirt right now.

March is the best.