2023 Pre-NCAA Tourney Discussion and Bubble Watch

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

6-12 conference record for WVU? yikes

should be auto disqualifying imo

OOC is weighted way too heavily in the current model, imo

They got to 7-11 with another Q win yesterday so they are now a clear lock.

West Virginia's OOC play helping them (Pitt+Auburn) but its not the big part of the resume. They have 6 Q1 wins, and 5 Q2 wins... 11 of those wins (11-12 in Q1+Q2) with no bad losses is indisputably in and there should be no debate whatsoever compared to a 9-9 team from the ACC for example who have nowhere near the quality of victory.

Its that 6 wins (now 7) in the B12 are all considered either Q1 or Q2 wins. And there are no bad losses to be had in the B12.

That's what happens when you play in a conferene that went 107-22 in OOC play (perhaps the best OOC performance in the last decade). The ACC went 108-52. That's a massive difference, especially when many of the 108 wins are of the creampuff variety.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

If you are wondering why the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC are dominating the # of seeds and top seed lines, especially the Big 12, consider the data below of OOC performance.

The Big 12's 10 teams have 30 good wins and only 2 bad losses.
As a comparison the ACC's 15 teams have 22 good wins and 18 bad losses.

The Big12 truly dominated the OOC, perhaps as much as any conference in the last 15 years.

For those wondering Q1A wins are based on cutting the Q1 range in half. So those in the upper half of the range are considered Q1A. The ACC did not do well in this regard this year.

 

[BlackSquirrels]

jncuse, thanks for the updates. I got addicted to the Boebble watch during the many years Cuse was on the Boebble. It’s sad that we can’t reach that status anymore.

In fact, I think I can’t refer to it as the Boebble at this point.

I was thinking of switching to the Buzzble, but Texas A&M is solidly in this year.

What do you think about the Bobbyble, in honor of Bobby Hurley? 4 out of 6 years, including 2020, isn’t bad! I nominate him as the new baron of the bubble.

 

[jncuse]

jncuse, thanks for the updates. I got addicted to the Boebble watch during the many years Cuse was on the Boebble. It’s sad that we can’t reach that status anymore.

In fact, I think I can’t refer to it as the Boebble at this point.

I was thinking of switching to the Buzzble, but Texas A&M is solidly in this year.

What do you think about the Bobbyble, in honor of Bobby Hurley? 4 out of 6 years, including 2020, isn’t bad! I nominate him as the new baron of the bubble.

Good observation on Arizona St.

Texas A&M and Arizona St are certainly trying to challenge us for bubble dominance in the past 8 years or so, but they still have some work to do!

 

[jncuse]

If we were contending for the NIT (and actually cared about it), it would be a tough opening weekend
Of the 5 conferences that have been determined, the regular season champion has only won one of them. Which means that the 4 bids have now been taken up in the NIT (or perhaps only 3 -- don't think Merrimack qualifies)

 

[NineOneSeven]

If you are wondering why the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC are dominating the # of seeds and top seed lines, especially the Big 12, consider the data below of OOC performance.

The Big 12's 10 teams have 30 good wins and only 2 bad losses.
As a comparison the ACC's 15 teams have 22 good wins and 18 bad losses.

The Big12 truly dominated the OOC, perhaps as much as any conference in the last 15 years.

For those wondering Q1A wins are based on cutting the Q1 range in half. So those in the upper half of the range are considered Q1A. The ACC did not do well in this regard this year.

View attachment 225725

30-2 is wild.

 

[jncuse]

30-2 is wild.

Just to be clear the "30-2" is not an actual record.
Its just the ratio of good wins vs bad losses... and I put it in terms of "a win%" just so that it could be compared to other conferences.

 

[CardiacCuse]

If you are wondering why the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC are dominating the # of seeds and top seed lines, especially the Big 12, consider the data below of OOC performance.

The Big 12's 10 teams have 30 good wins and only 2 bad losses.
As a comparison the ACC's 15 teams have 22 good wins and 18 bad losses.

The Big12 truly dominated the OOC, perhaps as much as any conference in the last 15 years.

For those wondering Q1A wins are based on cutting the Q1 range in half. So those in the upper half of the range are considered Q1A. The ACC did not do well in this regard this year.

View attachment 225725

yeah obviously the OOC is how they rank conferences now

makes those games more meaningful, which is good, but I think they vastly overvalue those early season games in the current metrics fwiw...

most teams change a lot from november to march, especially now

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[UpstateSM]

Towson just got absolutely boned.

Also Tu Holloway slept with Pat Kelsey's wife at Xavier.

 

[UpstateSM]

LMAO

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So beating Florida on the road makes FAU a lock?

 

[jncuse]

So beating Florida on the road makes FAU a lock?

#15 in Net (#28 in KP) (Very Strong)
5-3 in Q1+Q2, (2-1 in Q1)
No bad losses
Its a strong "benefit of the doubt" resume for a mid-major who obviously will not have the number of quality win opportunities.
I would indeed be stunned if they do not get in the 10-11 line with a loss.

 

[jncuse]

The following 6 schools seem to be most exposed heading into conference tourney week. And its quite the shame that the list includes Pitt, Penn St and Rutgers.

There are 106 brackets in the matrix, and every team has 104 or more except these teams.
A bad loss, a bubble buster (like a FAU loss) or a run by someone below the line and they may all be uncomfortable.

Of course 1 good win probably locks it up for most of them as well.

WED - Pitt vs Florida St (Q4) /GTech (Q3) Winner
THURS - Utah St vs New Mexico (Q1) /Wyoming (Q3) Winner
THURS - Miss St vs Florida (Q2)
THURS - Nevada vs San Jose St (Q2)
THURS - Rutgers vs Michigan (Q2)
THURS - Penn St vs Illinois (Q1)

 

[HRE Otto IV]

#15 in Net (#28 in KP) (Very Strong)
5-3 in Q1+Q2, (2-1 in Q1)
No bad losses
Its a very strong "benefit of the doubt" resume for a mid-major who obviously will not have the number of quality win opportunities.
I would indeed be stunned if they do not get in the 10-11 line with a loss.

its not an upper tier resume. but looking at a team like Rutgers they are 10-11 in Q1+Q2 (5-6 Q1), but also have 3 bad losses and nowhere the same NET.

I think you put too much value into the NET rankings. If they were undefeated in CUSA then fine. But 2 Ls and nothing OOC, sorry.

They played no one OOC including 2 D2 games. Lost to a bad Ole Miss team.

They have no business making it.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[FireballPhil]

If you are wondering why the Big 12, Big 10, and SEC are dominating the # of seeds and top seed lines, especially the Big 12, consider the data below of OOC performance.

The Big 12's 10 teams have 30 good wins and only 2 bad losses.
As a comparison the ACC's 15 teams have 22 good wins and 18 bad losses.

The Big12 truly dominated the OOC, perhaps as much as any conference in the last 15 years.

For those wondering Q1A wins are based on cutting the Q1 range in half. So those in the upper half of the range are considered Q1A. The ACC did not do well in this regard this year.

View attachment 225725

Big issue is rankings are still fairly subjective causing inflated metrics especially the net. Q1 and Q2 games would be different if the rankings were a bit more realistic. Everyone is saying how strong the Big 10 and Big 12 are this year because of their OOC. They further say the ACC is down for the same. There were some bad loses for sure, but where is the fact that the ACC won the ACC/Big 10 tourney 8-6? I havew watched a bunch of games from both Big 10 and Big 12 since I live in Iowa and I can tell you that there have been just as many bad games here as there was in the ACC. Some really really bad stinker of games.