2023 win season over/under is 6.5

[McNabb2Brominski]

seems kinda high imo, but let’s break the schedule down by outcome likelihood:

Definite losses:
@UNC
@FSU

Probable losses:
Clemson
@Purdue

Toss ups:
@Vtech
Pitt
@Gtech

Probable wins:
BC
Wake

Definite Wins:
Colgate
W Mich
Army


Need to take the definite and probable wins and then take 2 out of 3 toss ups games.
Boom, 7 wins right there. Aside from the 3 game gauntlet of Clemson, @FSU @UNC, the schedule is relatively favorable compared to recent years.

 

[721Comstock]

seems kinda high imo, but let’s break the schedule down by outcome likelihood:

Definite losses:
@UNC
@FSU

Probable losses:
Clemson
@Purdue

Toss ups:
@Vtech
Pitt
@Gtech

Probable wins:
BC
Wake

Definite Wins:
Colgate
W Mich
Army


Need to take the definite and probable wins and then take 2 out of 3 toss ups games.
Boom, 7 wins right there. Aside from the 3 game gauntlet of Clemson, @FSU @UNC, the schedule is relatively favorable compared to recent years.

I beg to differ.

@ Purdue is NOT a probable loss.

They lost SO MUCH from this season, it’s crazy.
QB1, WR1, TE, LT, not to mention the entire coaching staff.

It’s no worse than a toss-up.

And depending on how the games prior to that go, we may even be slight favorites for that game.

 

[MSOrange]

I beg to differ.

@ Purdue is NOT a probable loss.

They lost SO MUCH from this season, it’s crazy.
QB1, WR1, TE, LT, not to mention the entire coaching staff.

It’s no worse than a toss-up.

And depending on how the games prior to that go, we may even be slight favorites for that game.

Agree. Purdue was the one that caught my attention immediately. Won't be easy on the road, but far from a probable loss with what they lost.

 

[SUskibum]

seems kinda high imo, but let’s break the schedule down by outcome likelihood:

Definite losses:
@UNC
@FSU

Probable losses:
Clemson
@Purdue

Toss ups:
@Vtech
Pitt
@Gtech

Probable wins:
BC
Wake

Definite Wins:
Colgate
W Mich
Army


Need to take the definite and probable wins and then take 2 out of 3 toss ups games.
Boom, 7 wins right there. Aside from the 3 game gauntlet of Clemson, @FSU @UNC, the schedule is relatively favorable compared to recent years.

I’ll take a shot. With the most significant difference being this year there are no definite losses.

Probable losses: 15-30% likelihood
@FSU
Clemson
@UNC

Toss ups: 40-60% likelihood
@VT
Pitt
Wake
@GTech

Probable wins 65-80% likelihood
BC
@Purdue

Definite Wins: 90-100% likelihood
Colgate
WMich
Army

 

[721Comstock]

I’ll take a shot. With the most significant difference being this year there are no definite losses.

Probable losses: 15-30% likelihood
@FSU
Clemson
@UNC

Toss ups: 40-60% likelihood
@VT
Pitt
Wake
@GTech

Probable wins 65-80% likelihood
BC
@Purdue

Definite Wins: 90-100% likelihood
Colgate
WMich
Army

So, there’s 0% chance for any of our games to fall into:
0-14%
31-39%
61-64%
81-89%

This checks out.

 

[David332]

I would not put Purdue down as a probable loss, they lost too many big pieces. We were in a straight up rock fight with them last year. Even on the road we’re the better team now.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I really wish Pitt was a home game so pathetic the AD moved it to NYC after watching our guys lose footing every play there a couple months ago.

 

[UpstateSM]

I think Clemson might be reaaaally good this season. Haven’t started doing preseason research yet, though.

We would have beaten them in the Dome last season.

 

[David332]

I really wish Pitt was a home game so pathetic the AD moved it to NYC after watching our guys lose footing every play there a couple months ago.

Many suspect that was part of the negotiations to land the Pinstripe.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Just at least 6 wins and a bowl appearance. That's the mission. However we get there, I don't care.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

I still have ptsd from the last time we played at Purdue, so that’s why I plugged them where I did

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I think we start 4-0. If we can manage 1 win in our first 3 ACC games before the bye its going tobe a good year. If that Pitt game was at home I'd call the last 5 all winnable so infuriating. Like BC being the Friday nighter. GT and Wake could be toast by the time we see them. This could have been the perfect schedule for a huge season.

 

[kcsu]

Other than Gate we could win or lose every game.
Im ok with 6 wins . Expect 7. Thrilled with 8 or better

 

[djorange1989]

Other than Gate we could win or lose every game.
Im ok with 6 wins . Expect 7. Thrilled with 8 or better

Agree with everything you say except no way WMU could be a loss, they could be UMass bad this year.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I expect us to beat Purdue.

We should be 4-0 and flying high, while Clemson is coming into the Dome off of a tough game (win or lose) vs FSU. We still should lose that game but I would put our chances at 37.5%.

IMO we are more likely to be 8-4 then 6-6.

 

[kcsu]

Agree with everything you say except no way WMU could be a loss, they could be UMass bad this year.

Ok thx i haven't started looking into the opponents yet. I know Army can be tough and the rest of them are all winnable.
Three keys in my book.
Shrader
Allen
OG. We need all three to remain healthy.
D looks solid especially if we land another good DB.
Our new punter is going worth 1.5 games over last year in my opinion.
I think because of a good punter, combined with strong D we can play with every team on the schedule. If those three O players stay healthy we have a shot at a special season. One last point is the new center. If he steps in and starts we have enough pieces on the OL to be good there.
Lots of ifs but we have a chance to have a really good year.

 

[Cuse'91]

I expect us to beat Purdue.

We should be 4-0 and flying high, while Clemson is coming into the Dome off of a tough game (win or lose) vs FSU. We still should lose that game but I would put our chances at 37.5%.

IMO we are more likely to be 8-4 then 6-6.

Would feel more confident about your viewpoint, if we could bolster the skill positions. We have 3 former SEC qbs that were highly rated coming out of high school on the roster. But, we can't get 1 wr or rb like that? Upgrade with some skilled offensive players; and this could be a really fun year.

 

[TexanMark]

Agree. Purdue was the one that caught my attention immediately. Won't be easy on the road, but far from a probable loss with what they lost.

Agreed...Purdue is toss up...at worst we should be a couple point dog

I think 6.5 wins is the perfect Vegas spread.

I think out of @Purdue, @VTech and @GTech, Cuse wins 2 of those. If they do 7 or 8 wins is likely.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Would feel more confident about your viewpoint, if we could bolster the skill positions. We have 3 former SEC qbs that were highly rated coming out of high school on the roster. But, we can't get 1 wr or rb like that? Upgrade with some skilled offensive players; and this could be a really fun year.

That would be great to upgrade the skills. But we had 7 Ws last year against a harder schedule with basically the same skills.

 

[TexanMark]

So, there’s 0% chance for any of our games to fall into:
0-14%
31-39%
61-64%
81-89%

This checks out.

Yes cuz Math

 

[kcsu]

Our biggest upgrade will be at punter.
Biggest loss is LT

 

[Goin' Deep]

Right now, I've got 3 concerns on offense...
1) performance of the Oline
2) depth at RB
3) Beck as OC---I'm just wondering if he can handle both QB performance and play calling given the fact that for the last several years he has been "Anae's wingman." Does he hit the ground running...not missing a beat or does it take a half season or more to get the Orange to a level on offense where it wins 6-8 games?

 

[TexanMark]

Taking in my hot take analysis of teams' various strengths and game and schedule location I rank from easiest to hardest.

Colgate usually one of the borderline FCS playoff teams.

WMU sadly they have become a mediocre MAC team. They should be better

Army moving away from chop blocks and option FB. I expect some growing pains

BC we help BC's quest for another losing season. Friday night and Cuse usually plays well on Friday night

@GTech I expect they'll have 6 losses by then, we give them 7

Wake Forest last game both teams will be beat up. We have the better QB

@Purdue new coach and lots of attrition. Can Cuse handle the heat and crowd?

@VTech should be easier but both coming off a bye and it will be a Thursday night game. I expect the fan base to motivated.

Pitt they are down a bit but they always seem to find a way to win. Game is at Yankee Stadium so that favors us a bit..assuming we can handle the crappy infield turf.

@UNC Mack can recruit but UNC is a bit of an enigma. I wouldn't be surprised if Cuse wins.

Clemson we usually play them well. Hope for a night game

@FSU our toughest game this year

 

[kcsu]

Right now, I've got 3 concerns on offense...
1) performance of the Oline
2) depth at RB
3) Beck as OC---I'm just wondering if he can handle both QB performance and play calling given the fact that for the last several years he has been "Anae's wingman." Does he hit the ground running...not missing a beat or does it take a half season or more to get the Orange to a level on offense where it wins 6-8 games?

I think Beck will crush it. Obviously Long is the GOAT of our D so we will be fine there. The one thing i hope he does is continue to play lots of kids. White did an exceptional job of this.

 

[TexanMark]

Would feel more confident about your viewpoint, if we could bolster the skill positions. We have 3 former SEC qbs that were highly rated coming out of high school on the roster. But, we can't get 1 wr or rb like that? Upgrade with some skilled offensive players; and this could be a really fun year.

Gadsen, Alford and Isaiah Jones are SEC level guys