2024-25 NBA Season / Playoffs

[kirbivore]

“If you could see to it that Luca found his way somehow to the Lakers , we’ll do right by you and make sure you are taken care of ., think of it as planting a flag”

-anonymous exec in smoke filled room

 

[kirbivore]

You can't tell me the lottery isn't rigged

So does this rigged lottery support the Mavs moving to Vegas theory?

 

[kirbivore]

I still think Boston can win this series. Obviously there’s no margin of error now. This is a legacy opportunity for Jaylen Brown.

Well he has a head start on that legacy with last year's finals MVP

 

[Knicks411]

Why would the NBA want to help Dallas?

Yeah people just love to say its rigged regardless of the result but I am not entirely clear what the plan is here

 

[Knicks411]

Tanking or not is it that out of line that the bottom 4 finishers are guaranteed at least the first 4 picks? I mean the Hornets, Jazz, Wiz, Pelicans drafting 4-7 is a bit ridiculous, IMO. They need to do something. Just doesn't make a ton of sense that the Mavs/ Spurs are getting the first 2 picks.

You want to tank and have the worst record in the league, you still only have a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick but at worst you get the #4 pick which is still a considerable drop off this year, doesn't seem crazy to me.

The Wiz drafting #6 is ridiculous

If you want to give the bottom 4 teams a guaranteed top 4 pick then you're saying that only a team in the bottom 4 can move up to 1. Which fine, but it's a pretty stark contrast from what we have right now.

I do feel like the new lottery odds have kinda been a failure

 

[IthacaBarrel]

If you want to give the bottom 4 teams a guaranteed top 4 pick then you're saying that only a team in the bottom 4 can move up to 1. Which fine, but it's a pretty stark contrast from what we have right now.

I do feel like the new lottery odds have kinda been a failure

That is exactly what I am saying.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Yeah people just love to say its rigged regardless of the result but I am not entirely clear what the plan is here

The fundamental issue with the lottery is it gives mediocre teams who just missed the playoffs the chance to get a high pick. I know the NBA doesn't want teams to tank, but they could prevent a lot of this discussion if they just went to a draft where the worst team gets the first pick like every other American professional league.

 

[Knicks411]

If you want to give the bottom 4 teams a guaranteed top 4 pick then you're saying that only a team in the bottom 4 can move up to 1. Which fine, but it's a pretty stark contrast from what we have right now.

I do feel like the new lottery odds have kinda been a failure

Following up on my own point, Utah ended up picking 5th. Based on the current odds, that was (by far) the single most likely spot for them to end up in. They had a 47.9% chance of picking 5th.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Following up on my own point, Utah ended up picking 5th. Based on the current odds, that was (by far) the single most likely spot for them to end up in. They had a 47.9% chance of picking 5th.

That's what i don't get and the Pelicans most likely landing spot was 6th

Yeah tanking for 14% chance at the #1 pick does not make a ton of sense but at the same time do those teams deserve the 5th 6th or 7th pick? I just don't think so. They stink for many reasons but I just don't think the worst 4 should draft anywhere worse that 1-4 and 5-8 the same.

 

[Knicks411]

That's what i don't get and the Pelicans most likely landing spot was 6th

Yeah tanking for 14% chance at the #1 pick does not make a ton of sense but at the same time do those teams deserve the 5th 6th or 7th pick? I just don't think so. They stink for many reasons but I just don't think the worst 4 should draft anywhere worse that 1-4 and 5-8 the same.

They flattened the odds AND added in a drawing for another spot (used to be 3, now is 4). And can anyone really say tanking is less of an issue now?

 

[Melancer46]

Why would the NBA want to help Dallas?

If you believe the conspiracy theories (I do not...it's literally audited by Ernst and Young for gods sake), the NBA made a deal with Dallas that if they gave Luka to the league's premier franchise, they would give them Flagg.

It's obviously stupid but given that they kinda sorta got caught rigging it way back in the day, people have clung to the idea that it's still happening.

Re: the lottery system, it amuses me that many of the media members that fought for a decade to get the league to make this exact change are not complaining about how bad teams are getting screwed over now that the system has worked the way everyone knew it would.

I know a single NBA star can impact games more than an individual star in any other sport and therefore teams are more likely to want to tank for that star, but I've always felt the lottery restructure was silly. Tanking feels almost more like a branding issue than anything else to me. Like do people think the Wizards were tanking this year, or did they simply move on from players like Bradley Beal and begin rebuilding around young, raw players? They even brought in veterans like Brogdon, Middleton, and Smart to help instill winning habits in the locker room; it's just not a good team right now. Nobody really complains when NFL teams blatantly set themselves up to be bad for a year that happens to have great QBs in the draft. Being bad sometimes is just part of the game and I don't think the league should have overreacted the way it did to curb that. This is very different from teams sitting healthy players out of course; THAT is something that needs to be curbed.

The worst team in the league having a basically a 50% chance of picking in the top 4 is just ridiculous IMO. Not only does such a system not help to eradicate tanking, it actually increases it because lower teams feel like they have more of a chance to be rewarded for missing the playoffs (see Dallas tanking at the end of the year a couple years back to ultimately get Lively for example).

 

[Knicks411]

If you believe the conspiracy theories (I do not...it's literally audited by Ernst and Young for gods sake), the NBA made a deal with Dallas that if they gave Luka to the league's premier franchise, they would give them Flagg.

It's obviously stupid but given that they kinda sorta got caught rigging it way back in the day, people have clung to the idea that it's still happening.

The Ewing lottery? I think the evidence they even kinda sorta got caught on that one mostly comes down to Bill Simmons wrote about it?

The wild thing to me about the Mavs theory is that Anthony Davis immediately got hurt and missed a bunch of games, then Kyrie got hurt, and they had a ton of other guys get hurt (they were down to like 8 healthy players at stretches)...and they still made the play in! So the idea was "if you trade Luka to LA, then if your whole team gets hurt and you don't make the playoffs, we will rig it so you get Flagg"? It's completely insane. (and obviously that won't get in the way of people thinking it)

 

[shandeezy7]

The Ewing lottery? I think the evidence they even kinda sorta got caught on that one mostly comes down to Bill Simmons wrote about it?

The wild thing to me about the Mavs theory is that Anthony Davis immediately got hurt and missed a bunch of games, then Kyrie got hurt, and they had a ton of other guys get hurt (they were down to like 8 healthy players at stretches)...and they still made the play in! So the idea was "if you trade Luka to LA, then if your whole team gets hurt and you don't make the playoffs, we will rig it so you get Flagg"? It's completely insane. (and obviously that won't get in the way of people thinking it)

What's crazy is that the Knicks had a 14.9% chance to win the lottery that year. Since then, there's been 6 teams with a 3% OR LESS CHANCE to win the lottery that have won it. I'll see Bill Simmons in hell.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The fundamental issue with the lottery is it gives mediocre teams who just missed the playoffs the chance to get a high pick.

I actually love that.

It sucks for my Jazz fans friends, but reality is Dallas and San Antonio getting those picks makes for WAY more interesting team building than teams that are still probably a season or two away from even getting to the play-in slots.

I mean, putting aside the Dallas conspiracy theories.

 

[Newhouser]

So who does Nico package the pick with to get Giannis? Kidding...Sort of.

 

[kirbivore]

I'll see Bill Simmons in hell.

 

[Melancer46]

So who does Nico package the pick with to get Giannis? Kidding...Sort of.

Issue for them is they basically can't do it without including Kyrie or Davis, and Davis in particular wouldn't really make sense because then you have Giannis and that's basically your entire team lol. If Giannis does ultimately decide he wants to leave for a better opportunity to win, I don't think it's Dallas.

San Antonio getting the #2 pick is very interesting though. #2, Castle, Vassell, Harrison Barnes' expiring, and a bunch of other picks is probably as good an offer as Milwaukee can hope for if they end up needing to trade Giannis.

I will personally continue holding out hope that he stays until I see him in another jersey but we'll see.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Issue for them is they basically can't do it without including Kyrie or Davis, and Davis in particular wouldn't really make sense because then you have Giannis and that's basically your entire team lol. If Giannis does ultimately decide he wants to leave for a better opportunity to win, I don't think it's Dallas.

San Antonio getting the #2 pick is very interesting though. #2, Castle, Vassell, Harrison Barnes' expiring, and a bunch of other picks is probably as good an offer as Milwaukee can hope for if they end up needing to trade Giannis.

I will personally continue holding out hope that he stays until I see him in another jersey but we'll see.

Wemby and Giannis on the same team would be hilarious.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Why would the NBA want to help Dallas?

It’s not about helping Dallas. It’s about helping the NBA by putting a generational talent on its flagships franchise, The Lakers. LeBron is winding down. They need the next one. So how do you get Luka to the Lakers? The other teams aren’t going to want to help.

So you offer some combination of incentives to entice trading your 1st team All-NBA to LA in a process where no other teams were apparently notified of his availability. After all you don’t want to strip the lakers down to the bone in the process of getting him there. It’s so obvious .

 

[Cusefan0307]

It’s not about helping Dallas. It’s about helping the NBA by putting a generational talent on its flagships franchise, The Lakers. LeBron is winding down. They need the next one. So how do you get Luka to the Lakers? The other teams aren’t going to want to help.

So you offer some combination of incentives to entice trading your 1st team All-NBA to LA in a process where no other teams were apparently notified of his availability. After all you don’t want to strip the lakers down to the bone in the process of getting him there. It’s so obvious .

I blame Nico for being buddy buddy with Pelinka and Davis due to their previous relationship when Nico was at Nike. I think Harrison is just in over his head. He's the same guy that low balled Steph Curry at Nike. And any GM that has traded talent to the Lakers over the years has pissed me off royally. I don't understand why it continuously happens.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

S

I blame Nico for being buddy buddy with Pelinka and Davis due to their previous relationship when Nico was at Nike. I think Harrison is just in over his head. He's the same guy that low balled Steph Curry at Nike. And any GM that has traded talent to the Lakers over the years has pissed me off royally. I don't understand why it continuously happens.

help the lakers. help league revenue. Increase your own franchises value indirectly.

 

[Knicks411]

It’s not about helping Dallas. It’s about helping the NBA by putting a generational talent on its flagships franchise, The Lakers. LeBron is winding down. They need the next one. So how do you get Luka to the Lakers? The other teams aren’t going to want to help.

So you offer some combination of incentives to entice trading your 1st team All-NBA to LA in a process where no other teams were apparently notified of his availability. After all you don’t want to strip the lakers down to the bone in the process of getting him there. It’s so obvious .

But this also all relies on Dallas having their whole team get injured and miss the playoffs.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

But this also all relies on Dallas having their whole team get injured and miss the playoffs.

True.

OR

Since that's how it turned out, it opened the door for the NBA to do this.

 

[Day2]

But this also all relies on Dallas having their whole team get injured and miss the playoffs.

Different contingencies for different scenarios. There was probably a different incentive if they made the playoffs.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

The fundamental issue with the lottery is it gives mediocre teams who just missed the playoffs the chance to get a high pick. I know the NBA doesn't want teams to tank, but they could prevent a lot of this discussion if they just went to a draft where the worst team gets the first pick like every other American professional league.

I don’t understand. That would displace the discussion over rigging the lottery, but how does it disincentivize teams from tanking? If you don’t have a playoff team, you’ll still tank, to get the best possible pick. The very worst team would get the #1, but other teams would still be competing for the next best set of picks. And it’s not every year that there’s a consensus #1.

I also don’t think it’s such a bad thing that not so bad teams still have a chance at top picks. They are trying. Nearly making the playoffs sorta indicates you are committed to winning and have committed money/resources. Which, to me, is a good argument in favor of those teams having a chance at a generational talent. Some franchises are just poorly run, the owners don’t spend, and the fanbases are weak. Why reward that?

It’s kind of a matter of philosophies.

I think I do favor a more stringent statistical or structural rule to maybe have the worst five or so teams eligible for the 1 (and maybe 2), and then a different weighting system for the rest.

I think it may be different with basketball vs football and baseball because one player can have much more of an impact, and baseball and football drafts are much longer and teams pick based on specific needs, not necessarily the highest rated prospect. If you don’t need a QB, you’re not drafting a QB even if he’s the best player. In hoops, you’re drafting Flagg no matter who’s on your roster.