OrangeXtreme
The Mayor of Dewitt
- Joined
- Aug 15, 2011
- Messages
- 236,395
- Like
- 430,956
161-1 is still in play...
I blame Devin Williams’ baby. If he were available tonight, Weaver would have pitched the 8th inning.
That’s an original take
NoIsn't that the reason they've fallen short in so many of recent post-seasons?.
No
This is from 2020, but nothing has changed.I remember when you were Donnie Manhattan. Now I guess your Donnie in the Bronx.
What a great article. Now I’m so intrigued as to whether this has held from 2021-2024?!! That 19-1 is record is wild.This is from 2020, but nothing has changed.
![]()
Homers are still the key to winning in playoffs
In the fourth inning of Wednesday evening's Yankees-Rays Game 3, Kevin Kiermaier stepped to the plate with the score tied 1-1, after the first two Tampa Bay hitters of the inning had reached. Briefly, the television broadcast noted that the sacrifice bunt had fallen out of favor, but that thiswww.mlb.com
Here’s one from 2023.What a great article. Now I’m so intrigued as to whether this has held from 2021-2024?!! That 19-1 is record is wild.
This just gave me a hypothesis that i just checked. I wondered, in the year the great Tony Gwynn hit almost .400 (.394), where would that résumé rank in 2024. He would’ve only been 6th last year in WRC+. There were 5 more productive hitters last year than a guy who basically hit .400!!More data from Perplexity AI with citations.
Historical Winning Percentages for Teams with Home Run Advantage
The correlation between outhomering opponents and winning playoff games has been consistently strong throughout baseball history. When looking at comprehensive data from the divisional era (beginning in 1969):
• From 1969-2020, teams that hit more home runs than their opponents in a postseason game won at a .780 clip
• In more recent history (2010-2020), the winning percentage remained remarkably stable at .775
• The trend has actually intensified in the most recent postseasons:
• In 2021, teams outhomering their opponents went an incredible 25-2 (.926 winning percentage)
• In 2023, through the Championship Series, teams with more homers went 21-4 (.840 winning percentage)
These postseason winning percentages consistently exceed the already impressive regular season rates, where teams hitting more homers win approximately 73-75% of games historically.
The 2023 Postseason Case Study
The 2023 playoffs provide the most recent comprehensive example of this phenomenon, with remarkable consistency across different rounds:
League Championship Series
• NLCS (Diamondbacks vs. Phillies): Team with more home runs went 4-1
• ALCS (Rangers vs. Astros): Team with more home runs went 3-2
Division Series
• NLDS (Phillies vs. Braves): Team with more home runs went 4-0
• NLDS (Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers): Team with more home runs went 2-0
• ALDS (Astros vs. Twins): Team with more home runs went 2-0
• ALDS (Rangers vs. Orioles): Team with more home runs went 1-1
In the 2023 Divisional Round alone, teams outhomering their opponents posted an overwhelming 9-1 record.
This guy does not deserve my attention.I just gotta say, I have a bit of a love/hate with Portnoy...
The good: I like his pizza reviews and what he does for pizza shop small businesses, and how he saved and advocates for rescue dogs, etc.
...but... To say he has personal "issues" is an understatement.
Also, he's a Red Sux homer to fault, thin-skinned, and has some sordid personal bahavior history to to say the least.
Also, he constantly refers to himself as some sort elite "triple crown" baseball player and home run hitter. Evidently he was actually pretty good - in highschool in Swampscott, MA. He claims a shoulder injury sidelined his college and pro career... OK, so why do you have to pretend your triple-crown highschool stint makes you a pro hitter?? It's cringeworthy.
This was a great chuckle...
Also love that Chisolm went after him as the pro baseball "nobody" that he is:
![]()