3 point shooting needs to improve | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

3 point shooting needs to improve

Knicks411 said:
Part of it is because every other team is shooting more 3's. The average team take 37.5% of their shots from 3 now, when we won the title in 2003, it was 32.1%. Average offensive efficiency in 2003 was 102.1, it's 105.2 now. Teams are scoring more, you gotta keep up.



That's really the key. Obviously there's no hard and fast rule like you need x guys to shoot the 3 at y%, but the game continues to trend toward more and more shooting/spacing. Playing 2 guys who don't really have much of a game outside 10 feet is one thing when they are two lotto picks like Bagley and Carter (and btw, Bagley was 23-58, 39.7% from 3 and Carter was 19-46, 41/3%. not huge volume but they can make it) and something else when one of them literally looks to pass out when he catches the ball and cna't dunk it right away (and sometimes even looks to pass when he can)
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So teams are scoring more, barely. Our zone, when we weren't hampered by sanctions, held teams below their average from deep by a statistically significant amount. In short, the more 3's teams shoot against us, the better we are. So it's a good thing teams are so reliant on the deep ball. That has nothing to do with our offense, though. You don't have to match a team 3 for 3 to keep up with their scoring.

We can't play 3 on 5 on offense anymore. We are all super-duper in agreement on that. 100%.
 
Brooky03 said:
So teams are scoring more, barely. Our zone, when we weren't hampered by sanctions, held teams below their average from deep by a statistically significant amount. In short, the more 3's teams shoot against us, the better we are. So it's a good thing teams are so reliant on the deep ball. That has nothing to do with our offense, though. You don't have to match a team 3 for 3 to keep up with their scoring.

We can't play 3 on 5 on offense anymore. We are all super-duper in agreement on that. 100%.
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Like I said, you don't need a certain # of guys to shoot the 3 at some rate, but it sure helps. I'd take Hakim Warrick, he was a first team AA. He'd be just fine.

But the game is trending toward more spacing/shooting. More shooting is almost always going to equal more offense. I think you need some level of shooting to compete at the highest level, unless your players are just that good, and we probably aren't going to get those guys
 
Cusefan0307 said:
Outside of Kansas all of these teams are in the top 20 in Defensive efficiency according to KenPom. All of these teams defend well.
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Loyola must've inflated the numbers against their midmajor opponents, which Kenpom notoriously struggles to adjust for. Loyola didn't play good defense against Miami or Tennessee. Not surprisingly, they played good D against a fellow midmajor, Nevada.

Michigan and Nova are legit on D. Guys like Wagner are hard to find. If we're arguing we need a guy like Wagner on the team, then yeah, obviously that would be nice.
 
Knicks411 said:
Like I said, you don't need a certain # of guys to shoot the 3 at some rate, but it sure helps. I'd take Hakim Warrick, he was a first team AA. He'd be just fine.

But the game is trending toward more spacing/shooting. More shooting is almost always going to equal more offense. I think you need some level of shooting to compete at the highest level, unless your players are just that good, and we probably aren't going to get those guys
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Precisely my point. Thank you.

More shooters are a good thing to have. They're just not necessary beyond a certain level. I'm setting that level at 3 legitimate deep threats on the court at all times (so 3 starters and at least 2 bench guys). The assertion that a team has to have no less than 4 shooters on the court most of the time is excessive, imo. For instance, Golden State is unstoppable because they not only have 3 point shooters, they have some of the best shooters in the game. The number of shooters they put on the court is secondary to the quality of the shooters, in terms of impacting their success. Putting 4 shooters on the court is nice, but it's certainly not a requirement for success.
 
If anyone cares, I decided to do a basketball reference play index search, Hakim was 6-9, so i did a search for all guys in the NBA this year who are between 6-8 and 6-10 and who have qualified for the MPG leaderboard. There are 80 of them, Cedi Osman has played the fewest minutes, at 569.

Of those 80 players, all but one of them have attempted at least 1 3 pointer this year. 62 of the 80 have taken at least 10% of their shots from 3. 55 of them have taken at least 20% of their shots from 3.

What this means? I dont know, it's just info
 
Knicks411 said:
I was thinking of making this point, but I wasn't sure if I wanted to...
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If memory serves me, he started shooting corner 3's in his junior and/or senior seasons, with mixed results. Would he step out for more 3's in today's game? Maybe. Possibly. Perhaps probably. Would it be a requirement so as not to hurt his draft stock? No.
 
Brooky03 said:
If memory serves me, he started shooting corner 3's in his junior and/or senior seasons, with mixed results. Would he step out for more 3's in today's game? Maybe. Possibly. Perhaps probably. Would it be a requirement so as not to hurt his draft stock? No.
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I looked it up, he was 9-40 as a senior.

i think he'd for sure be shooting 3's now. Look at the play index data I cited above; everyone his size is shooting 3's.
 
Knicks411 said:
I looked it up, he was 9-40 as a senior.

i think he'd for sure be shooting 3's now. Look at the play index data I cited above; everyone his size is shooting 3's.
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If Boeheim let him, yeah, he'd probably shoot them. The point that the NBA would ding the draft stock of an athlete like Warrick who was nearly unstoppable in college inside of 12 feet just bothered me because it's not grounded in reality.
 
Cusefan0307 said:
Loyola, Nova, and Kansas all shoot 40% or better from 3. Michigan is slightly below that. They all have won at least 32 games and are in the FF. I know some traditionalists hate it, but its the key to winning. We can talk about Bazley and Carey all we want, but they still need to make shots. I really hope Hughes is a good shooter.
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Last year's NIT team had pretty good outside shooting. Just saying that there's a lot more to it.
 
Brooky03 said:
If Boeheim let him, yeah, he'd probably shoot them. The point that the NBA would ding the draft stock of an athlete like Warrick who was nearly unstoppable in college inside of 12 feet just bothered me because it's not grounded in reality.
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It's impossible to say, but yes, I think it would hurt him if he couldn't shoot 3's. NBA 4's are expected to be able to shoot 3's now. That is very much the reality

Looking at the NBA draft rankings, the guys who are listed a SF/PF in the top 20 or so all shoot 3's. (I actually dont know on Michael Porter since he didn't play much, but 10 of his 29 shots were 3's, so i think he does)
 
Knicks411 said:
It's impossible to say, but yes, I think it would hurt him if he couldn't shoot 3's. NBA 4's are expected to be able to shoot 3's now. That is very much the reality

Looking at the NBA draft rankings, the guys who are listed a SF/PF in the top 20 or so all shoot 3's. (I actually dont know on Michael Porter since he didn't play much, but 10 of his 29 shots were 3's, so i think he does)
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Including Small Forwards in the analysis is troublesome because less than 25% of the 'SF/PF' guys in the first round will play any significant minutes at PF in the NBA. Still, the point is taken that a lot of PF's projected to go in the 1st round shoot, albeit not for volume. That said, Chimezie Metu is arguably the most comparable player to Hakim Warrick. Similar height, similar production, similar 3 point output (Metu: 12-40, Warrick: 9-39). Warrick was the 19th pick in the 2015 draft. Metu is projected 24th right now. If the NBA emphasis on 3 point shooting is so strong now compared to then, I would think Metu would be projected as a second rounder, not just 5 picks away from Hakim Warrick from the apparent prehistoric days of baskeball when shooting 3 pointers was blasphemy.



Let me clarify my stance for all involved in this thread because my points may not be clear and we've forked into at least 3 separate arguments. This isn't directed at you, Knick411:
1) You have to have at least 4 capable scorers on the court at all times. We all agree.
2) Assuming PG-SF are shooters, the PF does not have to be a shooter to win you 30+ games, and recent evidence of successful teams without a 3-point shooting PF and/or C is easy to find.
3) If we have a chance to land a PF who can shoot 3's and do all the other stuff a PF is expected to do, sign him the heck up. Sounds phenomenal.
4) If we have a choice between a PF who does most things well but can't shoot or a Stretch 4 who is just average at the other things, or bad at one or two, sign up the athletic inside scorer.
5) As a team, we need to shoot 3's better than we did this season.
 
Brooky03 said:
Including Small Forwards in the analysis is troublesome because less than 25% of the 'SF/PF' guys in the first round will play any significant minutes at PF in the NBA. Still, the point is taken that a lot of PF's projected to go in the 1st round shoot, albeit not for volume. That said, Chimezie Metu is arguably the most comparable player to Hakim Warrick. Similar height, similar production, similar 3 point output (Metu: 12-40, Warrick: 9-39). Warrick was the 19th pick in the 2015 draft. Metu is projected 24th right now. If the NBA emphasis on 3 point shooting is so strong now compared to then, I would think Metu would be projected as a second rounder, not just 5 picks away from Hakim Warrick from the apparent prehistoric days of baskeball when shooting 3 pointers was blasphemy.



Let me clarify my stance for all involved in this thread because my points may not be clear and we've forked into at least 3 separate arguments. This isn't directed at you, Knick411:
1) You have to have at least 4 capable scorers on the court at all times. We all agree.
2) Assuming PG-SF are shooters, the PF does not have to be a shooter to win you 30+ games, and recent evidence of successful teams without a 3-point shooting PF and/or C is easy to find.
3) If we have a chance to land a PF who can shoot 3's and do all the other stuff a PF is expected to do, sign him the heck up. Sounds phenomenal.
4) If we have a choice between a PF who does most things well but can't shoot or a Stretch 4 who is just average at the other things, or bad at one or two, sign up the athletic inside scorer.
5) As a team, we need to shoot 3's better than we did this season.
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Understood on the positional thing, but even when you focus on the guys who are more likely to play the 4, mos tof them shoot 3's.

Anyway, i see Metu listed at 6-11, Warrick at 6-9, which I don't think is an insignificant difference, especially since, at least per ESPN, Metu is listed as a PF/C.
In the most recent ESPN mock draft, they have Metu projected at 37, which is indeed a second rounder.

I pretty much agree with your points, fwiw.
 
The new basketball is you have to have 3-4 guys on the floor that are good 3 point shooters. Seems every player Wright recruits to Nova is a good 3 point shooter regardless of position and also good free throw shooters. Self at KU too.
 
Alsacs said:
Put Gillon's shooting into Howard's body you have the perfect Syracuse player.

If 2017 SU had 2018 Chukwu its a tournament team. It sucks we have the pieces each year but miss a piece that makes us a complete team.
Like if 2018 team had Lydon it has enough scoring to beat Duke and Kansas in the tournament.

Bazley is Lamar Odom on the Lakers. He is a 3rd option next year but has elite playmaking skills who can do a little of everything. However he isn't going to dominate. I have watched a lot of his games. He can't be the guy next year or we are in trouble.
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See when i watch him its almost like he is bored. I think Jim will motivate him much more into taking games over like Melo did in middle of season. Also realize he will improve by next year. We will see i guess. Worst case he is a glu guy who cn shoot some 3, rebound, and play goo defense with his length.
 
Brooky03 said:
So teams are scoring more, barely. Our zone, when we weren't hampered by sanctions, held teams below their average from deep by a statistically significant amount. In short, the more 3's teams shoot against us, the better we are. So it's a good thing teams are so reliant on the deep ball. That has nothing to do with our offense, though. You don't have to match a team 3 for 3 to keep up with their scoring.

We can't play 3 on 5 on offense anymore. We are all super-duper in agreement on that. 100%.
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We need more out of the Center position. I like Marek's potential development and ability to contribute as the main 4 next year, but I am concerned if PC plays 30+ again. If Sid is healthy and able to work on his body and game this summer, I hope he gets 25 minutes a game. His offensive potential is so much higher and fits what we need much more than PC.

The bigger issue is having poor shooters, guys who can't finish at any position and a tempo that greatly reduces the margin for error.
 
Jasoncuse said:
We need more out of the Center position. I like Marek's potential development and ability to contribute as the main 4 next year, but I am concerned if PC plays 30+ again. If Sid is healthy and able to work on his body and game this summer, I hope he gets 25 minutes a game. His offensive potential is so much higher and fits what we need much more than PC.

The bigger issue is having poor shooters, guys who can't finish at any position and a tempo that greatly reduces the margin for error.
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Agreed. Our shooters need to be more efficient and our frontcourt needs to finish better at the rim. We've had too many seasons with duds at PF. That guy has to be a legitimate scoring threat. Hopefully Marek will improve enough to be that for us next season. If not, we might see a lot of Hughes at SF and Oshae at PF, which is less than ideal against most teams.

Playing faster is also a matter of personnel. We all know JB likes to play fast when he can, we just haven't had the roster makeup for it lately, largely due to short benches. With the guard depth we should have next season, I look forward to us capitalizing on turnovers and quick outlets in transition like we used to. Rebounding is a big part of that, too, and I like the potential rebounding we have with Marek, Oshae and PC/Sid. I don't think we'll play as slow as we did this season in the near future. At least, I hope not.
 
Brooky03 said:
Agreed. Our shooters need to be more efficient and our frontcourt needs to finish better at the rim. We've had too many seasons with duds at PF. That guy has to be a legitimate scoring threat. Hopefully Marek will improve enough to be that for us next season. If not, we might see a lot of Hughes at SF and Oshae at PF, which is less than ideal against most teams.

Playing faster is also a matter of personnel. We all know JB likes to play fast when he can, we just haven't had the roster makeup for it lately, largely due to short benches. With the guard depth we should have next season, I look forward to us capitalizing on turnovers and quick outlets in transition like we used to. Rebounding is a big part of that, too, and I like the potential rebounding we have with Marek, Oshae and PC/Sid. I don't think we'll play as slow as we did this season in the near future. At least, I hope not.
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I have a feeling we will play at this tempo, at least next year. With limited front court depth, JB will again look to shorten games. Even with more guard depth, we still don't have a PG though maybe Carey will be a fine fast break guard.

Really, the only change from this year is more guard depth. Does that mean we'll run more and push the tempo? I'll need to see it to believe it. Personally, I would push and attack more, especially in the half court.
 
Jasoncuse said:
I have a feeling we will play at this tempo, at least next year. With limited front court depth, JB will again look to shorten games. Even with more guard depth, we still don't have a PG though maybe Carey will be a fine fast break guard.

Really, the only change from this year is more guard depth. Does that mean we'll run more and push the tempo? I'll need to see it to believe it. Personally, I would push and attack more, especially in the half court.
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Other than grabbing clean boards, I think the guards are the determining factor in tempo. A typical fast break is two guards and a forward, after all. If the guards can stay fresh, which they should, getting a somewhat tired Oshae or Marek to trail them to the other end of the court for a dunk should be easier than what we were faced with this season. Chukwu can't run but if Sid get healthy, I could see him breaking down the court with the guards. And Sid should be relatively fresh most games with a potential 50/50 playing time split with Chukwu.

Carey seems to be built for transition and I have confidence in senior Frank getting the job done in the open court. He'll be like Scoop, to some degree, and make some bonehead decisions but they'll be worth it for the easier scoring opportunities.
 
Brooky03 said:
Agreed. Our shooters need to be more efficient and our frontcourt needs to finish better at the rim. We've had too many seasons with duds at PF. That guy has to be a legitimate scoring threat. Hopefully Marek will improve enough to be that for us next season. If not, we might see a lot of Hughes at SF and Oshae at PF, which is less than ideal against most teams.

Playing faster is also a matter of personnel. We all know JB likes to play fast when he can, we just haven't had the roster makeup for it lately, largely due to short benches. With the guard depth we should have next season, I look forward to us capitalizing on turnovers and quick outlets in transition like we used to. Rebounding is a big part of that, too, and I like the potential rebounding we have with Marek, Oshae and PC/Sid. I don't think we'll play as slow as we did this season in the near future. At least, I hope not.
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I agree with much of this. I’m seriously concerned about the tempo though in general. It’s been slow since Ennis. Last year’s team wasn’t great either. They plodded, passed back and forth, and launched. They had MUCH better shotmakers. The only time the tempo was cranked up was when we were buried in games and had to make furious comebacks to speed things up, IMO, skewing that number a bit. That’s why I’m really interested to see what shakes down next season. I’m 50/50 on it being a Frank issue combined with the strategic shut down/stall offense by JB due to depth. If we see more of the same next season then there are some serious systemic and internal issues.

KenPom Tempo/Pace ranks:

2014- 344 (Ennis season)
2015- 259
2016- 314
2017- 243
2018- 345
 
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