4 game stat snap shot | Syracusefan.com

4 game stat snap shot

GoSU96

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The story so far is how points have been ahead of yards, which is such a rare thing for this program, and how the defense has been excellent.

Through four games Yards gained per point is 11.83. The only other times that a season has ended in that range is 18, 15, and 01. On defense it is 19.23, which SU has never achieved in a season. The next closest is 18.9 in 01.

That‘s the profile of a 10 win team, as we saw in 01 and 18. If SU was in the coastal this is a 9, 10, 11 win team, which I’ve said before. With the level of competition I think 8 wins would be great.

What is encouraging is that this has been achieved with a sputtering run game and a decent opening schedule, not 3 cupcakes and a marquee team. This is also four games with a new offensive system.

If they can get the run game untracked and maintain the pass game production, that would go a long way to protecting the defense and this team will be competitive the rest of the season.

They are doing the right things on the offense, obviously already started a self scout and using the next two weeks as a mini-camp with a scrimmage in the middle.
 

upperdeck

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also takes into account that we probably should have scored 20-30 more pts already on some pretty simple plays. we gave way 8-12 pts in the Virginia game on perfect play calls
 

richmondcuse03

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Just based on the penalty numbers per game, it's a wonder we are scoring as well as we are. Take away all the shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties, as well as dropped passes; scoring numbers would be even better.
And factor the win in a game we should never have won turnover wise (UVA)...this season has started as good as humanly possible.
 

Millhouse

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The story so far is how points have been ahead of yards, which is such a rare thing for this program, and how the defense has been excellent.

Through four games Yards gained per point is 11.83. The only other times that a season has ended in that range is 18, 15, and 01. On defense it is 19.23, which SU has never achieved in a season. The next closest is 18.9 in 01.

That‘s the profile of a 10 win team, as we saw in 01 and 18. If SU was in the coastal this is a 9, 10, 11 win team, which I’ve said before. With the level of competition I think 8 wins would be great.

What is encouraging is that this has been achieved with a sputtering run game and a decent opening schedule, not 3 cupcakes and a marquee team. This is also four games with a new offensive system.

If they can get the run game untracked and maintain the pass game production, that would go a long way to protecting the defense and this team will be competitive the rest of the season.

They are doing the right things on the offense, obviously already started a self scout and using the next two weeks as a mini-camp with a scrimmage in the middle.
i don't find this encouraging

if you finish with being way better in points than yards, sure that's the profile of a lucky 10 win team

but if you're 4-0 and way better in points than in yards, expect to come down to earth. we are about the same in yards per play on offense and defense. this is a .500 team that got lucky twice so maybe we end up 7-5, 8-4 if we play like a .500 team the rest of the way
 

GoSU96

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i don't find this encouraging

if you finish with being way better in points than yards, sure that's the profile of a lucky 10 win team

but if you're 4-0 and way better in points than in yards, expect to come down to earth. we are about the same in yards per play on offense and defense. this is a .500 team that got lucky twice so maybe we end up 7-5, 8-4 if we play like a .500 team the rest of the way
01 - yds per play was 4.8 on offense, 5.3 on defense.
18 - 5.68 on offense, 5.83 on defense

10 win seasons.

SU has had only four seasons with a positive margin between offense and defense yds per play since 2001.

03 - 6-6 0.30 pp
10 - 8-5 0.61 pp
12 - 8-5 0.35 pp
21 - 5-7 0.55 pp

The first nine games last year the margin was 1.39 pp (which is huge) and the team went 5-4.

You want to be ahead in both, but yds per point seems more predictive. I agree, given the schedule that margin is going to close, but it’s encouraging that they have done what they have to this point. They have one defensive score, and one short field against Purdue. It’s not like they are feasting on gift points.
 

Millhouse

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01 - yds per play was 4.8 on offense, 5.3 on defense.
18 - 5.68 on offense, 5.83 on defense

10 win seasons.

SU has had only four seasons with a positive margin between offense and defense yds per play since 2001.

03 - 6-6 0.30 pp
10 - 8-5 0.61 pp
12 - 8-5 0.35 pp
21 - 5-7 0.55 pp

The first nine games last year the margin was 1.39 pp (which is huge) and the team went 5-4.

You want to be ahead in both, but yds per point seems more predictive. I agree, given the schedule that margin is going to close, but it’s encouraging that they have done what they have to this point. They have one defensive score, and one short field against Purdue. It’s not like they are feasting on gift points.
It's just a fancy way to indirectly look at turnover luck. Turnovers and short fields for offense, fewer turnovers means longer drives guy

Maybe we get lucky a few more times and it will look like the whole year was some special ability to score without yards

It's not bad news, they can play a lot better, it's great to get some breaks
 

GoSU96

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It's just a fancy way to indirectly look at turnover luck. Turnovers and short fields for offense, fewer turnovers means longer drives guy

Maybe we get lucky a few more times and it will look like the whole year was some special ability to score without yards

It's not bad news, they can play a lot better, it's great to get some breaks
Maybe they are just maximizing their possessions, which being 100% in the redzone will do?
 

All4SU

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Just based on the penalty numbers per game, it's a wonder we are scoring as well as we are. Take away all the shooting ourselves in the foot with penalties, as well as dropped passes; scoring numbers would be even better.
The thing about this team that feels different is that third and long never seems like an insurmountable hurdle. That was always the case with McPherson, Graves, McNabb, Dungey (2018). Every play, even after being set back by a penalty, seemed like a possible first down.
 
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Cuse'91

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The thing about this team that feels different is that third and long never seems like an insurmountable hurdle. That was always the case with McPherson, Graves, McNabb Dungey (2018). Every play, even after being set back by a penalty, seemed like a possible first down.
Absolutely right. Shrader effect?
 

OttoinGrotto

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Maybe they are just maximizing their possessions, which being 100% in the redzone will do?
I think Andre is big here, not to be Captain Obvious. But if we get the ball in a decent spot, and crank out a couple of first downs, we're in legitimate scoring position. Means there are few empty possessions.
 

dasher

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It's just a fancy way to indirectly look at turnover luck. Turnovers and short fields for offense, fewer turnovers means longer drives guy

Maybe we get lucky a few more times and it will look like the whole year was some special ability to score without yards

It's not bad news, they can play a lot better, it's great to get some breaks
8-4 is a pretty good year for us. After Wagner, the next 6 games are brutal. 3-3 would be as good as we could get. 2-4 wouldn't be all that disappointing. At least to me.
 

721Comstock

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8-4 is a pretty good year for us. After Wagner, the next 6 games are brutal. 3-3 would be as good as we could get. 2-4 wouldn't be all that disappointing. At least to me.

Agreed 144%.

I had posted before that those 6 games are basically 4 toss-ups (NCST, ND, FSU, @Wake)
and 2 likely L's (@Pitt, @ Clemson)

2-4 likely means we split the toss-ups, and lost both of the tough road games.
No shame in that, at all.

So, yeah - winning 3 means we either nabbed a 3rd one of the toss-ups, or got lucky and snagged a W against Pitt or Clemson.

And then hopefully tacking on a final W over BC as the gravy on the icing.
 

0.2 YNdeeR

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Maybe they are just maximizing their possessions, which being 100% in the redzone will do?
Field position is more favorable this year ... due to better ST's, fewer TO's, etc. Which means that on offense, fewer yards are needed to score (better yards/points ratio), and on defense, opponents have to cover more ground per point (worse ratio).
 
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TheCusian

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This gives me hope. If you throw us and everyone left on our schedule together in a bucket - we have the best combined Offense and Defense. Other notes:

- NC State’s O if woof
- FSU and Wake’s D is meh
- Clemson is average on D and way above average on O. Might be rounding into form
- PITT and ND are good at both O/D - but we’re better
- BC isn’t as bad as UConn. They should be proud.
 

GoSU96

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Here is a comparison of the team through game four this year to 2001

Truly the good, the bad, and the ugly
 

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GoSU96

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Here is a comparison of the team through game four this year to 2001

Truly the good, the bad, and the ugly
What it shows to me is that through 4 games this team as whole is playing to the level of the two dbl digit win teams the last 20 years. Will that hold, probably not, but it may, and that’s the exciting part.
 

GoSU96

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Here is a comparison of the team through game four this year to 2001

Truly the good, the bad, and the ugly
And it’s visual confirmation on how bad those Robinson teams really were
 

Millhouse

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Maybe they are just maximizing their possessions, which being 100% in the redzone will do?
if they were maximizing all their possessions, they'd be better in yards per play

maybe they're maximizing their chances to score when getting turnovers or on whatever fraction of drives where they move the ball

but, regardless, scoring a lot relative to yards gained is great but not something that persists

we went through this with shafer
 

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